It’s often been said that professional football is a game of parity, but that’s far from reality. In truth, it’s merely a sentiment that the league perpetuates. The AFC has sent just one team not led by Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger or Peyton Manning to the Super Bowl in the last 11 years. A third of the NFL hasn’t won a playoff game in the past decade, with five clubs failing to win a postseason contest this century. It’s not a league of parity; it’s a league of perpetuity.
Which is why it’s so puzzling that this environment facilitates constant overreaction. Two weeks ago Steelers’ fans wanted Mike Tomlin and Todd Haley fired. With the latter’s offense scoring 94 points in the past two games, the former is helming a 6-3 squad. There was a “Philip Rivers for MVP!” crusade gaining traction in the first quarter of the year; following three straight losses, during which Rivers has tossed six interceptions, some are petitioning the Lightning Bolts to explore alternative options at quarterback this offseason. Oh, and it’s worth mentioning that a vocal contingent wondered if the Patriots would be better with Jimmy Garoppolo under center after the offense no-showed against the Chiefs in Week 4. About that…
Instead of breaking down our usual takeaways from the previous week’s action, let’s take a temperature of the present “hot take” storylines and inject some perspective. This week’s five overreactions:
“Baltimore is a mess”
In wake of two consecutive losses, the Ravens are last in the AFC North. Their predicament is not as severe as this ranking suggests.
Despite their recent woes, the Ravens enter the second half of the season with a 5-4 mark. Moreover, all four defeats have come against teams with winning records. A Week 11 Bye offers a welcomed respite, and Baltimore’s upcoming ventures would hardly be described as daunting, as the team leaves Maryland just three times. This last point is especially important towards Joe Flacco, who’s been solid at home in his career (42-10 record, 72 touchdowns vs. 35 interceptions) but a disaster on the road (25-28, 65 scores against 51 picks).
There are plenty of positives in Baltimore’s corner, including a top-10 rushing attack and a defense surrendering just 19.3 points per contest (fourth-lowest in the NFL). Flacco’s, ahem, Flacconess can be maddening, yet keep the faith that Baltimore will be in the playoff mix at the end of December.
“Is Cam Newton a franchise quarterback?”
You’d imagine turning in a 12-4 campaign would provide a sense of leeway. Unfortunately, that’s assuming the media and fans are a rational bunch.
Concededly, Newton has struggled in the past month, hitting just 53.5 percent of his targets with six turnovers during Carolina’s 0-3-1 stretch. In that same tone, Newton is not the primary culprit for these problems. The Panthers’ defense has provided as much resistance as a cardboard cutout, relinquishing 26.2 points (25th in the NFL) and 131.9 yards (26th) per outing. The backfield has been in a battered and bruised state for much of the fall. And while Newton’s passing numbers are sub-par, few quarterbacks could muster anything of semblance with a rookie wideout, Jerricho Cotchery and Jason Avant comprising the receiving corps.
Coupled with his mobility limited from offseason surgery, it’s understandable that the Heisman winner’s output is down from its usual heightened shape. Although this season may seem like a lost cause, the Panthers are only a win behind New Orleans in the division, and Newton still has a bright future. Anyone that says differently is talking out of their behind.
“The Cardinals are the team to beat in the NFC”
I love me some Bruce Arians, and my eternal flame for Carson Palmer still burns bright. Alas, this Cardinals’ hot start is reminiscent of the Chiefs’ 2013 first-half. Specifically, taking advantage of an easy schedule. Their “big” wins are over a San Diego team falling apart at the seams, a .500 San Francisco squad and Dallas, which had Tony Romo on the sidelines. Not trying to diminish what Arizona has accomplished: it took care of business. However, the second part of the schedule is not as fortuitous as the first, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Cards’ finished 4-4 down the stretch.
There’s also the matter of Palmer. Through five games, the two-time Pro Bowler has displayed an eye-popping efficiency, finding the end zone 11 times versus two picks. Given that Palmer threw 22 passes to the wrong team in 2013, it’s ball security that’s likely ephemeral. Furthermore, Palmer’s health remains in a vulnerable state, and it’s hard to envision his neck and shoulder standing the test of the season. It’s a nice story, one that I’m personally pulling for to come to fruition, but it’s a narrative that’s unlikely to last.
“Could the Vikings make a run in the NFC North?”
As one who lives in Cincinnati, I wish the Bengals could have kept Mike Zimmer and given Marvin Lewis the boot. I also think Teddy Bridgewater has the physical tools and makeup to be a franchise quarterback. These viewpoints don’t correlate to a sunny forecast for Minnesota’s second half, at least in terms of playoff potential. It’s unquestionably a generous slate ahead of the Vikings, and the defense, ranked ninth overall heading into Week 10, will keep the team in most games. Regrettably for the Twin Cities, though Bridgewater has instilled life into the attack, a freshman signal caller is bound to result in inconsistent production. I can foresee the Vikings finishing up strong, somewhere along the lines of an 8-8 mark, but they’re not in the same echelon as the Packers or Lions at this juncture.
“What’s wrong with Seattle?”
You mean the defending Super Bowl champs that are 5-3 and flaunt the fourth-best defense? Yeah, talk about a struggle.
The Hawks’ display would not be described as aesthetically pleasing, and I’m sure many expected a bigger score disparity against the winless Raiders. But a win’s a win, and Oakland has played other contenders like New England and Arizona close this year. Unless someone personally states their discontent, I’m not putting any value into reports of locker room discord. Besides, these issues allegedly existed last season too. Didn’t seem to hamper the execution of that group.
Seattle does have a gauntlet of a second-half schedule. Conversely, this is a roster I wouldn’t bet against. You may have personal aversion against this franchise, but the Hawks remain a team with genuine Super Bowl aspirations.
Joel Beall is a writer for FOXSports.com and WhatIfSports.com, and is the host of the Fast Break on FOX podcast. He lives with a Golden Tee machine and a jump shot that’s broken. Reach Joel on Twitter @JoelMBeall
