There's no great secret about what happened to Adam Wainwright in Game 1 of the NLDS. Let Wainwright tell you for himself:
"My fastball command was awful. They realized I could not command my fastball, and they sat on slow stuff.''
Wainwright fell behind in the count too often, reducing the effectiveness of his fastball, and because hitters knew they could somewhat eliminate the fastball, that in turn reduced the effectiveness of his curveball. So Wainwright, ultimately, was ineffective, and he needed his offense to bail him out.
What did Wainwright's Game 1 start look like, statistically? According to Brooks Baseball, he threw just 56% fastballs or cutters, a 2014 season low. He also threw just 28% of those fastballs or cutters in the zone, also a season low. So you can see why hitters were able to wait for curveballs they could hit.
And Wainwright, for the most part, was missing hard up. Where, during the year, he threw about 29% of his hard pitches in the upper third of the zone or beyond, in Game 1 he was at double that rate.
So, okay, you don't really care that much about what happened to Wainwright in the past. You care more about what's happening with Wainwright in the present. So what can we take away from his first inning against the Giants in a different Game 1? Wainwright threw ten out of 15 fastballs or cutters, so he's trying to establish the hard stuff again. And the inning did go 1-2-3. But something to note: of Wainwright's ten hard pitches, eight were elevated, meaning while he wasn't wild, he might still be looking for his location. Usually, he doesn't work up so much, so if he doesn't bring the hard stuff down over the remainder, the Giants might also be able to sit curve. Or, they could get some good swings at pitches at the belt.
Long way to go, for Wainwright. The early indications are mixed.
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