There have been few surprises in this ACC Tournament.
The semifinal bracket is as close to chalk without being chalk as a tournament can be, with the fifth-seeded N.C. State Wolfpack unsurprisingly squeaking past the banged-up Virginia Cavaliers. The conference bluebloods—North Carolina and Duke—are still in contention. Florida State ratcheted up the pressure on Miami to earn an appearance.
So how can this tourney shift gears? How can a Wolfpack squad upset the heavily-favored Tar Heels and how can Leonard Hamilton’s Seminoles knock out ACC Tournament bully Duke?
Here’s a look at some of the things both teams have done this conference tournament and what they need to do again today to knock off the big boys:
North Carolina State
Keep at it: Offensive efficiency has been a strength for the Wolfpack this ACC Tournament, with C.J. Leslie and gang not putting up huge scoring numbers but getting good shots possession after possession. N.C. State scored more than a point per possession against both Boston College and a strong Virginia defense, and have now done so in six-consecutive ACC games—including their last game against the Tar Heels. In fact, Ken Pomeroy ranks the Wolfpack as the 32nd most efficient offense in the country.
Going against an offense as high-powered as North Carolina’s, points will be a necessity. So will strong possessions. The Wolfpack turned the ball over on just 15.3 and 17.5 percent of their possessions against Boston College and Virginia, respectively, and that will be the best way to keep Kendall Marshall out of transition.
Non-statistical note: Go at the Tar Heels. Assuming John Henson will not be roaming the lane, it should be less daunting for big guards C.J. Williams and Lorenzo Brown to go inside. Tyler Zeller is a great, and underrated, defender, but he does not alter shots like the ACC Defensive Player of the Year does. As North Carolina writer Adrian Atkinson noted, the Tar Heels allow 5.4 more points per 100 possessions with Henson on the floor. Take advantage of that.
Cut that out: The Wolfpack will want to get to the free throw line a bit more against the Tar Heels than it has in the previous two rounds. The Tar Heels are not only going to be short-handed without Henson, but they themselves are one of the best teams in the country at getting to the free throw line and getting opponents in foul trouble.
N.C. State got to the charity stripe at a respectable rate in its last game (36 free throws per 100 field goals), but the two teams that beat UNC in ACC play earned free throw rates of over 38. That takes a concerted effort to get the ball into the post and an aggressive approach from guards Lorenzo Brown and C.J. Williams. Plus, getting Zeller in foul trouble may be the Wolfpack’s best option.
The defense has been more of an issue for the Wolfpack this season (92nd in efficiency)—and that was again the case against an offensively-challenged Cavaliers team. N.C. State allowed 1.02 points per possession in that second round game, and if it thinks North Carolina won’t top that with a similar effort, Mark Gottfriend and his guys have another coming.
A non-statistical note: Get C.J. Leslie the ball even more. He is one of the most gifted players in college basketball. The Wolfpack channelled their offense through him a little more on Friday against Virginia. Against North Carolina: rinse, repeat.
Florida State
Keep at it: The Seminoles offense was excellent against Miami, logging its second-highest efficiency rating of the season. Florida State scored 1.22 points per possession against Miami—its most since its 84-70 win over Maryland—and that production makes this stout defensive squad extremely dangerous. Miami had no answer for Florida State’s plethora of athletic wings or for the combination of Okaro White and Bernard James on the interior.
But the biggest factor for Florida State’s impressive performance? Ball security. The Seminoles took care of the ball, which has been a rare occurrence this season. The Seminoles are tied for the 16th-worst turnover percentage in the country, according to Statsheet, but was able to reduce that to just 16.4 percent of its possessions Friday night. That should be underlined against Duke, who looked like it could use all the fast break points it could get against Virginia Tech.
Non-statistical note: Unleash Ian Miller. If you read my pre-tournament All-Bench team or last night’s Florida State-Miami wrap-up, this sentiment should come as no surprise. Miller and Austin Rivers will be the two most talented guards on the court in this semifinal matchup. Put that to use, Coach Hamilton.
Cut that out: It was obvious in postgame interviews that there was not much to harp on after the Seminoles 82-71 win over the Hurricanes. This is an upbeat club that knows it just put together one of its best all-around games of the season—and they did it in a tournament setting.
One thing to mention is that with Florida State’s high-pressure defensive tactics, forcing more turnovers would not hurt against the Blue Devils. A full-court, pestering defense had Miami disheveled and out of rhythm in the quarterfinals, but the Hurricanes still only turned the ball over on 16.4 percent of their possessions. Get a Duke team—one that could not seem to score against Virginia Tech—to give away possessions a quarter of the time, and the Seminoles will be headed to the finals.
Non-statistical note: If the team can handle the effort, dial up the pressure on Duke’s guards for 40 minutes. Florida State ran away with the Miami game once Hamilton made the executive decision to make it a headache for Hurricane guards to even cross halfcourt. This Blue Devils team will be more prepared (and better coached), but that type of energy wears down any team.
