The challenge and the lure of the NBA dollar was too much for North Carolina's Kendall Marshall, John Henson and Harrison Barnes to resist, though longer-term thinking could result in at least two of them earning more money down the road.
The Tar Heels' trio announced Thursday their intentions on entering the NBA draft, significantly depleting UNC's talent base moving forward, but also thrusting themselves into a world they may not yet be ready for.
But that doesn't matter when your handlers -- family, former area coaches, and other hangers-on -- are encouraging you to go get the money. That doesn't matter in a culture where the game is linked to a dollar value before players even get to college, and for many players college has become a lilypad on their way to the other side of the pond.
Few of us truly know the determining factors each player used to make their decisions. On the surface, it's easy to look at the injuries suffered by Henson and Marshall down the stretch of the season as major issues. It's hard to blame them, but mega-bucks insurance policies these days should make returning to school a more viable option.
After all, neither player is remotely close to being ready for the NBA. Yes, it's not about being ready, it's about potential. But that's not always entirely true. Players develop reputations on their potential very quickly once they get to the league, and it often doesn't jive with the book on them before the draft.
Guards, in particular, have shorter windows of opportunity to prove their draft-spot worthiness and generally have a tougher time developing into second and third-contract players, which makes Marshall's decision so puzzling. Here are the facts, both positive and negative about the left-handed sophomore guard:
He is as good a passer in college as these eyes have seen in 16 years of doing this for a living. He plays with a high IQ, has leadership skills, and displayed an ability to hit open shots late this season.
On the other hand, Marshall is not quick laterally, is slow horizontally, has a flat-footed "jump" shot, and is an average defender on his best day. If you can't guard Virginia's Jontel Evans, what makes anyone think he can guard NBA players?
That's a bit rough, sure, but that's where his game is, and since he's now a pro he must be judged accordingly. NBA scouts are willing to take a chance that his game can grow, but that is what some of them are also saying. I've heard them.
Another year or two in school would allow Marshall to become more NBA-ready, and thus delaying the timetable for his labeling. Remember, the NBA "weeds out" guards much faster than big men.
Henson has a future at the next level. The scouts I've talked to said he will play 10-12 years because he already has a nice skill set and should continue to improve in those areas. But, at 6-foot-11, he needs to get much stronger and learn to play more physically.
The long-armed junior couldn't play in the league right now because he'd get pushed around, they said. He'd sit at the end of the bench watching, so he should return to school to learn how to better finish over other bigs and develop more post moves. But the confidence in his intelligence and work ethic is why he will go high in the draft, and because he's not viewed as a risky off-the-court option.
Barnes is the one Tar Heel making the right move. Forget everything he said about playing three years, graduating, national championships and doing more in college than Michael Jordan did. That train passed a while ago. Barnes isn't a shadow of what Jordan was at UNC, and he knows it.
That's why he's wise to take the money and run. Barnes is a smart kid, a great student and he will make it in life one way or the other. Thus, he knows his branding isn't what he projected out of high school. While he showed glimpses of surging his game forward in January, he ended the season basically as a one-dimensional player.
Barnes can be a great shooter, but he doesn't handle the ball well, doesn't pass well -- he's even made jokes about this -- doesn't rebound particularly well for his 6-8 and strong frame, and he's an average defender when completely dialed in.
He isn't as cerebral as Marshall and hasn't branched out his game like Henson. To be frank, by the time March rolled around, Barnes was UNC's fourth best player, and when Reggie Bullock was hitting shots Barnes was the Tar Heels' fifth best player.
It's time for Barnes to go because the longer he's in college his game will be more exposed if he fails to improve, which was the case between his freshman to sophomore seasons. Take the money while it's there.
These players will now go through the "weeding out" process, which is what initial contracts are for, and hopefully for them they will make it through. But Henson and Marshall, in particular, would be wiser to return to school to improve their readiness for that second contract and beyond. Not for UNC's sake, but their own.
