Barring a major upset, Max Scherzer will collect the American League Cy Young Award Wednesday evening.
It could be his last act as a Detroit Tiger.
According to media reports, Tigers president Dave Dombrowski has told other teams at the winter meetings that he is open to trade offers for either Scherzer or fellow starting pitcher Rick Porcello.
With Drew Smyly ready to take a rotation spot, the Tigers can move a starter to try to fill in weaknesses at other positions, but trading Scherzer would be one of the riskiest moves of Dombrowski's tenure in Detroit.
The case for making the move is simple -- big, big money. Scherzer is eligible for arbitration this winter, and will get something approaching a $10 million raise from the $3.75 million he made in 2013. That's not the problem. While $15 million is a lot of money, it is significantly less than the $20 million that Justin Verlander brings in, and isn't out of line for a top-line starting pitcher.
The issue comes in 2015 and beyond. After pitching next season on his arbitration contract, Scherzer becomes a free agent. Normally, the Tigers would try to lock him up now with a big-money contract, but he is represented by super-agent Scott Boras -- a big fan of letting his clients explore the open market for the biggest possible deal.
That means that the Tigers could be competing with the unlimited budgets of teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers and Angels, as well as Scherzer's hometown St. Louis Cardinals.
Scherzer loves playing in Detroit, where he has a huge fanbase, and he might be willing to give the Tigers a discount to stay in town.
Maybe.
As much as Mike Ilitch is willing to spend to bring a World Series title to Detroit, there's a limit to the Olympia Entertainment pocketbook. If a team in New York or Los Angeles offers Scherzer a deal for something like eight years and $200 million -- in the neighborhood of what Verlander is already making -- there's probably no way the Tigers can afford to pay that much to a second pitcher, especially given Prince Fielder's massive deal.
On the surface, then, it seems like a good idea to make a move. If the Tigers trade Scherzer now, they will guarantee that they can get something for him. If they hang on to him, they will have one of the best pitchers in baseball for 2014, with the risk that he walks away after the season with no return at all.
The problem for Dombrowski is that the reasons to trade Scherzer are the exact reasons that his trade value will be much lower than you expect for a reigning Cy Young winner. Any team that thinks they can contend in 2014 would give almost anything for Scherzer, except for the same contract issues that worry the Tigers.
With Boras as his agent, he's going to be headed to the free-agent market in a year, no matter where he's playing, meaning that his new team will have given up a sizable chunk of talent for one year of his pitching. What if he's just a bit off next season, like Verlander was this year, or even worse, hurts his arm?
Is Dombrowski doing the right thing by exploring the market? Of course. It's quite possible that a team like Magic Johnson's Dodgers will feel it is worth putting together a big package of players and prospects for Scherzer, figuring that they will be able to re-sign him with their billions of TV revenue. The Yankees could feel the same way, figuring that Scherzer could be the centerpiece of their next dynasty.
The mistake would be taking the best offer for Scherzer, no matter what it is. Teams know exactly why Dombrowski is willing to trade one of the best pitchers in baseball, so they aren't going to offer four quarters for a dollar. If Detroit can get 90 cents, it is probably a move worth making, but giving him away for six dimes and a nickel would be a huge blunder.
At that point, the Tigers are better off waiting until the 2014 trading deadline and seeing where they are in the standings. If they have a chance to win that elusive World Series title, you hang on to him and take the risk of him walking away without ever getting a ring in Detroit. If they are struggling, you move him to a team in contention and take what you can get.
The good news for Tigers fans is that no one understands these dynamics better than Dombrowski. His record hasn't been perfect in Detroit, but his next bad trade will be the first one he's made here. Even when things didn't work out perfectly -- Jarrod Washburn wasn't the game-changer that Dombrowski hoped -- it turned out OK. Detroit gave up Luke French and Mauricio Robles in the deal, and if you don't know who they are, you aren't alone.
Dombrowski has one of the biggest decisions of his Tigers career to make with Scherzer and it comes on the heels of his risky move to hire Brad Ausmus. The short-term future of Detroit's quest for a title rides on him getting these two moves right.
Jim Leyland always talked about relying on a veteran's track record when they got off to a slow start -- the best example being Victor Martinez last season. Right now, fans of the Tigers have to give Dombrowski the same benefit of the doubt. He's done very well until now, and now he's got to do it again.
