It’s rookie time!
Normally when writing an article about a group of players – sleepers, potential busts or save vultures – I’ll give you 8-10 suggestions. But since we’re talking about a bunch of young guys you may not know much about yet, higher volume seemed like the better course of action.
Below are 22 players with rookie status whose names you should know on draft day; they’re listed in order of preference at each position. There are other rookies who could make an impact, but they probably won’t.
Catcher
J.P. Arencibia, Toronto
Arencibia, 25, hit 34 homers between Triple A and the majors last season, and is expected to handle the lion’s share of the catching duties for the Jays this season. Arencibia’s high-strikeout rate makes his batting average a worry, but he should be a solid second catcher for standard leaguers.
Jesus Montero, New York Yankees
Montero is a blue-chip slugging talent, ranked as a top-10 prospect by just about everyone who weighs in on that subject. At one point during the offseason, Montero was pegged as the Yanks’ starting catcher, but then they signed free agent Russell Martin because they don’t completely trust Montero’s defense. Montero will probably start the season at Triple A, but could force his way to the Bronx by crushing minor-league pitching. When he comes up, he should hit.
First base
Freddie Freeman, Atlanta
Hitting .319 with 18 homers and an .896 OPS at Triple A at age 20 is really, really good. Freeman will start at first base for the Braves, and while he won’t be a star right away, he should be a good one soon. He’s a great keeper-league target.
Brandon Belt, San Francisco
The Giants say they’re open to keeping Belt on their Opening Day roster, but the combination of his youth, a crowded roster and the chance to delay his free agency by a year make him likely to start in the minors. Belt hit 23 homers with 22 stolen bases across three minor-league levels last season, and displayed an excellent batting eye. Look for him to join the defending champs by June, pushing Aubrey Huff to left field, Mark DeRosa to the bench, and Pat Burrell to the American League.
Brandon Allen, Arizona
Allen will battle Juan Miranda for the starting job after hitting 25 homers and stealing 14 bases at Triple A. Allen also got his feet wet in the outfield last season, so he could find playing time in left field if Miranda impresses the D-backs in spring training. Allen’s high-walk rates suggest that he’ll be a good hitter, but his high-strikeout rates are cause for batting-average worry.
Chris Carter, Oakland
The A’s say nice things about incumbent/walk machine Daric Barton, and he does have some value, but wouldn’t you want more power from your first baseman? Carter hit 31 homers at Triple A last season and will be the Opening Day starter.
Second base
Danny Espinosa, Washington
At three levels last season – Double A, Triple A and the majors – Espinosa hit 28 homers and stole 25 bases. However, he strikes out sooo much that he doesn’t project to bat higher than .250, at least for now. Most prospect gurus don’t see Espinosa as a star, but he could put up some solid fantasy numbers. The Nats’ starting second base job is his for the taking.
Dustin Ackley, Seattle
If Ackley hits in Triple A, he’ll get promoted to Seattle sooner rather than later, mainly because Brendan Ryan and Jack Wilson comprise the worst-hitting DP combo since the Dead Ball Era. Unfortunately, while some people project Ackley as a future batting title winner, his power and speed are just OK, so he’ll probably be a better real player than fantasy player. Don’t expect miracles from him this season.
Third base
Mike Moustakas, Kansas City
Moustakas hit 36 homers between Double A and Triple A last season at age 21, and that’s tremendous. The only things blocking him in Kansas City are Wilson Betemit, Mike Aviles and the desire to delay his free agency by a year if he stays in the minors for a couple months. The last one is Moustakas’ biggest obstacle, but even if the Royals use that plan, he should join the big-league club by midsummer. Warning: During the offseason, Adam Foster of the helpful Project Prospect compared Moustakas’ body type to South Park’s rotund troublemaker Eric Cartman. Ouch.
Brent Morel, Chicago White Sox
Morel appears likely to start over Mark Teahen for the Sox. His glove is better than his bat, but he could still hit 12-15 homers playing in US Cellular Field. So could most of us, right?
Shortstop
Tsuyoshi Nishioka, Minnesota
The Twins signed this Japanese League batting champ during the offseason, and he’s going to be their starting shortstop. Nishioka doesn’t have big power (38 homers over his last three seasons), but he could steal 20 bases.
Outfield
Domonic Brown, Philadelphia
Brown is a top-notch prospect. He’s got power and speed, and seems to be ready to contribute in Philly right now. The Phillies are talking about Brown being in a competition, or possibly in a platoon, with Ben Francisco in right field. As long as Brown doesn’t get sent back to the minors, he should be considered for standard-league squads.
Desmond Jennings, Tampa Bay
Jennings’ fantasy stock was a lot higher before the Rays signed Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez, because now he appears ticketed for a return engagement at Triple A. Whenever Jennings gets promoted, he’ll steal a LOT of bases. He’ll lead off for them in 2012.
Starting pitcher
Jeremy Hellickson, Tampa Bay
Other than the potential closers, Hellickson is most likely player on this list to make a fantasy impact in 2011. His stuff is pretty good, and everything written about him seems to contain the words “polished” and “knows how to pitch. Hellickson has a slot in the Rays’ rotation, and is good enough to be an SP5 in standard leagues.
Michael Pineda, Seattle
Spring training will tell us if Pineda sneaks into the Mariners’ rotation. He dominated at Double A last season at age 21, and held his own after a promotion to Triple A (in a hitter’s league, no less). Pineda projects to be pretty good, and while Safeco Field should help him, he’s mainly a keeper or AL-only target in 2011.
Mike Minor, Atlanta
Minor flashed high strikeout rates and good control in the minors last season, and was better than his 5.98 ERA in nine appearances with the Braves would suggest. He’s expected to be the Braves’ fifth starter, and can be considered in NL-only leagues.
Kyle Drabek, Toronto
Drabek has plenty of talent, and appears to have the inside track on a rotation slot in Toronto. The thing is, he was good but not great at Double A last season, and hasn’t spent any time at Triple A. Drabek should be a good starter at some point down the road, but he’s likely to struggle this season.
Relief pitchers
Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta
The fireballing Kimbrel is the front runner to close for the Braves. Between Triple A and the majors last season, he struck out a boatload of batters, with an obscene number of walks to go along with them. Kimbrel’s control issues make him a shaky proposition as a closer, but if his manager gives him the job, that’s half the battle. Or maybe 48 percent of it.
Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati
Who wants to draft a guy that throws 105 miles per hour? I know I do, but Chapman’s fantasy value is tough to figure right now. His long-term future is probably as a starter, but he appears slated for a bullpen role to start 2010. With Reds’ closer Francisco Cordero displaying plummeting strikeout rates and high-walk rates over the past three seasons, don’t be surprised if Chapman gets some save opportunities this summer.
Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox
The Sox haven’t yet decided if Sale will start or relieve, but if he ends up in the bullpen he could close if the team wants to leave Matt Thornton in a setup role. Sale barely got his feet wet in the minors before a promotion to Chicago. He whiffed 32 batters in 23 1/3 innings, while saving four games and posting a 1.93 ERA. He’s very talented, but for this season, he’d have much more fantasy value as a closer than a starter. Stay tuned.
Jordan Walden, Los Angeles Angels
Fernando Rodney will get the first crack at the Angels’ closing job, but since Rodney isn’t very good, Walden and his high-90s heat will make a case to claim the role for himself. Walden whiffed 23 batters in 15 1/3 innings in a late-season audition with the Halos last season, and probably throws as hard as anyone in the majors except for Chapman. Warning: Scott Downs and Kevin Jepsen will also be in the mix for saves if Rodney flops, and you never know when a manager will want to trust a more experienced guy in the closer’s role.
Jake McGee, Tampa Bay
The Rays appear ready to start the season with Kyle Farnsworth (!!!) getting most of their save opportunities. Joel Peralta could be in the mix as well, and J.P. Howell (had 17 saves in 2009) is expected to return in April or May after missing the 2010 season because of shoulder surgery. The left-handed McGee was stellar after being converted to a relief role at Triple A last season, and needs to be considered as a darkhorse in the Rays’ closer mix. If you want to look like a smart guy at your AL-only draft, grab McGee with a late pick, and then sit there with a big grin on your face.
