Three keys to a Florida win over FSU

Three keys to a Florida win over FSU

Published Nov. 29, 2013 9:41 a.m. ET

Time: Saturday at noon.

TV: ESPN



GAINESVILLE, Fla. -- Considering the way the season has gone for Florida, the end sounds about right.

The Gators are coming off a 26-20 loss to FCS opponent Georgia Southern, the program's first loss to an FCS foe. They lost more players to injury against the Eagles. They have lost six consecutive games to secure a losing season for the first time since 1979.

The 4-7 Gators have one game left in what has been a turbulent season full of injuries and the program's most losses since the Jimmy Carter Administration.

Oh yeah, that one game left is against the Gators' archrival from Tallahassee, who happen to be having their best season since 1999.

The No. 2-ranked Seminoles are 11-0 and averaging an eye-popping 55.2 points a game. Redshirt freshman quarterback Jameis Winston is a Heisman Trophy candidate. Florida State's defense isn't too bad either, ranked fifth in the country.

At least the game is at The Swamp. That is one thing the Gators have going for them as they close the regular season and start looking ahead to 2014.

Both teams entered this matchup last year in Tallahassee with 10-1 records and ranked in the top 10. The Gators used a second-half surge to score 24 consecutive points in a 37-26 victory, clinching a trip to the Sugar Bowl.

A year later only the Seminoles are making bowl plans. Florida State is in line to play for the BCS national championship if it beats Florida and then wins the ACC Championship Game.
Do the Gators have any chance to make it two in a row over the Seminoles? Few expect this one to be close, but the Gators rarely get blown out.

Four of the Gators' seven losses are by six or fewer points. While Florida's offense is ranked 111th in the country, the defense is ranked seventh overall.

That's how the Gators usually keep it close.

If Florida is going to make it back-to-back wins over the Seminoles and spoil Florida State's national title hopes, here are three keys to victory:





That was Florida coach Will Muschamp's way of saying score some points after the loss to Georgia Southern.

The Gators had opportunities to change the scoreboard and reverse momentum against the Eagles, but they came up short at some key times to allow Georgia Southern's confidence to grow.

Those empty drives cost Florida the game.

Here is what we know: Florida State does not have trouble scoring points. The Seminoles have scored more than 40 points in every game and doubled that last week by dropping a school-record 80 on Idaho.

The Gators are averaging only 19.9 points a game and the guess here is that they will need to be around 30 or more to have a chance to win this one.

That means the Gators must be creative in the run game the way they were at South Carolina when they used freshman running back Kelvin Taylor out of direct snaps on two long touchdown runs, and quarterback Skyler Mornhinweg -- or Tyler Murphy if his shoulder is allows him to play -- must make some big plays in the passing game.

The Gators won't be able to win this one by being overly conservative on offense.



You can say this almost every game but when one team is a huge underdog like Florida is in this one, it's even more imperative.

That doesn't mean the Gators can't take some chances on offense. To win this one, they'll have to. But the defense will need to chip in with a takeaway or two or three.

Remember last year's win in Tallahassee? The biggest play of the game for Florida was freshman linebacker Antonio Morrison's crushing hit on Seminoles quarterback EJ Manuel that forced a fumble, recovered by Morrison.

The play turned momentum to Florida and off the Gators went to quiet a sold-out Doak Campbell Stadium.

Of course, Morrison is out due to an injury. So is defensive tackle Dominique Easley, and linebackers Michael Taylor and Alex Anzalone won't play. You get the picture.

The Gators need an unlikely hero or two on defense to change the momentum and affect the outcome of the game.



No matter what else they do Saturday the Gators must show up ready to play mentally. They need to play with the kind of emotion they did in their win over the Seminoles a year ago.
One obvious shortcoming of this Florida team is a lack of emotional leaders. With all the injuries to key players such as quarterback Jeff Driskel and Easley, much of the team's veteran leadership was lost.

They have talent but need someone to rally around at key moments.

In this kind of game, they will need to rally around each other. Play by play.

The Seminoles are playing to keep their national championship bid alive. The Gators must play for pride.

That could be their only chance to win this one and cap a disappointing season with what would be one of the program's most memorable upsets.

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