National Basketball Association

The Starting Five: What to watch as March Madness and the NBA intersect

Published Mar. 17, 2015 2:21 p.m. ET

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Let's jump off the LeBron James headbandwagon long enough to check out how March Madness can cross paths with the NBA.

THE OPENING TIP: Look out below, more than above

Over the next couple of weeks, an unsuspected March Madness hero (or two) will display so much skill, determination and presumed potential that you'll swear he's a lock for NBA stardom.

But the NBA personnel guys recommend a downshift in this overreaction.

"At this point, the biggest change in our evaluation of a prospect based on NCAA Tournament play happens if a player shows why he may not be as good as we thought," an NBA personnel professional said when contacted by The Starting Five.

He means that despite how well some college hotshot may perform, it's easier to fall in the estimation of scouts during tournament action than it is to rise.

Of course, we've been hearing that for a while. We've also been witnessing a lot of tournament stars landing all over the place in the draft. The last 25 prospects selected as the tournament's Most Outstanding Player include 18 first-round picks, 13 of whom were chosen in the lottery.

Three MOPs became second-round selections, and four weren't drafted at all.

Of those 25, only five became NBA All-Stars.

For the rest, one shining moment truly said it all.

Atlanta's spacing and offensive system has helped Paul Millsap emerge as a reliable 3-point marksman.

FAN-ALYTICS: Space case in Atlanta

In addition to allowing his players to play to their strengths, second-year Hawks coach Mike Budenholzer has emphasized developing new strengths in older players.

That certainly seems to be what has occurred with 30-year-old power forward Paul Millsap.

At 6-foot-8, Millsap hardly profiles as the prototype NBA four-man. But over his first seven seasons in the league (all with the Utah Jazz), Millsap rarely worked from the outside against the behemoths manning the power forward position.

In those seven years, the former Louisiana Tech star fired up only 117 3-point attempts. That reluctance to unload from behind the arc may have been inspired by a success rate of 26 percent.

We kept hearing, however, that Millsap was a real deadeye in practice and only required the green light to flourish as a floor-spacer.

So, in his first season with the Hawks, he put up 212 3s and converted at a 36 percent rate. He's boosted his frequency to 3.0 attempts this season and is hitting at the same rate.

"We believe in our shooters," Budenholzer said. "We believe in moving the ball and keeping the court spaced. We encourage it, we want to be aggressive, and our guys know we believe in the three ball and we want them to shoot it."

NBA scouts will be eager to watch Ohio State freshman D'Angelo Russell attack the 'havoc' defensive pressure employed by VCU's Shaka Smart.

WHAT NEXT: To Havoc, or havoc not

One near-future lottery pick we can't wait to see in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament is Ohio State freshman guard D'Angelo Russell.

Russell, who lives in the top three of most mock drafts, might be the most creative passer in college hoops. The 6-foot-5 lefty also can score from anywhere on the floor and doesn't mind mixing it up on the boards.

On Thursday, he and the Buckeyes will meet the VCU Rams, who -- through Coach Shaka Smart's "Havoc" philosophy -- apply more full-court defensive pressure than any team in the country.

This commitment to open-court basketball could lead to some amazing opportunities for Russell; that could be a problem for the Rams, who have had to maintain their style without Briante Weber, the most dangerous perimeter defender in the land.

Please note that two years ago, VCU pushed the Michigan Wolverines into a high-tempo event and were smoked, 78-53. All five Wolverines who started that March Madness game currently work in the NBA. Operating in space, they combined to make 30 of 53 field-goal attempts and were forced into only 12 turnovers (seven of those by Trey Burke).

Inviting teams with more perimeter talent into a test of open-court skill certainly can be risky.

Ohio State, however, might not have anyone besides Russell capable of playing in the NBA.

Much to the dismay of New Orleans coach Monty Williams and guard Tyreke Evans, fairness is not the overriding factor in determing the NBA's postseason qualifiers.

RUMOR MALL: Miles apart on playoff parity

At post time, two teams with 30-36 records -- the Indiana Pacers and Miami Heat -- were on schedule to compete in the Eastern Conference edition of the 2015 NBA playoffs.

Out in the relentless desolation of the Western Conference, the 36-30 New Orleans Pelicans and 35-33 Phoenix Suns require late-season rallies to avoid going home when the regular season ends.

Such seemingly unforgiving circumstances have been going on for a while now, inspiring considerable chatter regarding a change. The popular solution seems to be simply qualify 16 teams with the best regular-season records, seed them accordingly and have at it.

Unfortunately, balancing schedules -- in the interest of won-loss fairness -- would lead to a bigger investment in travel, which goes a long way toward explaining why an idea that seems popular with fans, players and coaches is not expected to generate enough positive energy for a vote this offseason.

>> Meanwhile, there's some March Madness-related buzz regarding Notre Dame senior combo guard Jerian Grant (son of Harvey, nephew of Horace), who appears to be more highly thought of among NBA personnel types than most mocks suggest. At 6-5 with plenty of bounce, Grant led the ACC is dimes this season and projects as two-way prospect with plenty of game that translates to the NBA.

When the highly efficient Hawks and Warriors met on Feb. 6 in Atlanta, Jeff Teague and the Hawks prevailed 124-116 over Stephen Curry and the Warriors.

SHOWDOWN LOWDOWN: Hawks vs. Warriors

Thanks to Chuck Barkley, we're not supposed to consider Wednesday's battle between the Atlanta Hawks and Golden State Warriors in Oakland as prelude to anything in June. According to Barkley, jump-shot-happy teams don't win championships.

Based on history and the philosophical bent of those who coach (or think they can), the mantra is defense wins championships.

Well, the Warriors are ranked first among NBA teams in defensive efficiency, while the Hawks check in sixth. But they're also pretty high in frequency of 3-point attempts, so the live-by-the-3, die-by-the-3 purists doubt these teams can escape their respective conferences.

These squads should be encouraged, however, because in addition to stout team defense, they also perform stellar team offense. The Warriors, for example, lead the NBA in assists; the Hawks are second.

And with copycatting as rampant in basketball as it is everywhere else, playoff success from either or both of these teams just might provoke more teams to play like them.

As someone paid to watch NBA teams and provide commentary, Barkley should thank them.

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