The road to Omaha: ACC outlook

The road to Omaha: ACC outlook

Published May. 26, 2015 6:31 p.m. ET

During last week's ACC Tournament, all the coaches took time when they could to rally for the league to get as many teams as possible into the NCAA Tournament.

Two ACC teams got national seeds, and three ACC teams are hosting regionals with ACC champs Florida State thrown into the mix. All told, seven of the eight teams that made pool play in the ACC Tournament made the NCAA's, with the notable exception of North Carolina.

The Tar Heels finished the year ranked 28th in the RPI and were the highest-ranked team not selected. A number of factors likely played into the decision -- the Tar Heels' ACC record, the poor performance down the stretch, and some bid thefts in conference tournaments -- but it's the first time North Carolina has failed to make the field since 2001.

ADVERTISEMENT

Still, of the seven ACC teams that did make the field, plenty have good chances to advance -- even some of the lower seeds. Will this be the year that the league finally ends its 60-year national title drought?

Other teams: No. 4 FIU (29-29), No. 3 Columbia (31-15), No. 2 East Carolina (40-20)

Outlook: Neither FIU nor Columbia should give Miami and its high-powered offense significant trouble. But East Carolina is the No. 24 team in the final RPI, and the Pirates have played plenty of high-profile teams in their program's history. They won't be afraid, and they won't be intimidated -- oh, and they're also pretty good. Still, should Miami get past the pesky Pirates, it will meet the winner of the Dallas Regional, and the path to Omaha will get a bit clearer.

Other teams: No. 4 Morehead State (38-20), No. 3 Michigan (37-23), No. 2 Bradley (35-19)

Outlook: Pretty good, even though Louisville limped into the postseason a bit, losing two in the ACC Tournament. Michigan was one of the bid thieves by winning the Big 10 Tournament, but the Wolverines have won five in a row and nine of the last 12. Bradley is 19th in the RPI and playing in its first NCAA Tournament since 1968. Should Louisville advance, it will host the winner of the Fullerton Regional and could (potentially) get a rematch with ACC foe Clemson in a wide-open region. But the Cardinals will have to worry about this weekend first.

Other teams: No. 4 Mercer (35-21), No. 3 Auburn (35-24), No. 2 College of Charleston (43-13)

Outlook: The Seminoles barely missed out on a national seed. But based on the region they got, maybe it wasn't all that close. Florida State's No. 2 seed, College of Charleston, is the No. 16 team in the RPI (for the sake of comparison, 16 teams are in theory the top 16 seeds in the tournament and get to host). No. 3 seed Auburn is 22nd in the RPI. Mercer is 107th, and the Seminoles shouldn't have much trouble there. RPI is a flawed metric, of course, but College of Charleston and Auburn won't be easy outs by any stretch. Then if FSU is to get past this weekend, they'll have to play the winner of the Gainesville Regional in Gainesville, even though they played Florida three times already this season. If FSU makes it to Omaha, they'll have gone the hard way.

Other teams: No. 4 Sacred Heart (23-30-1), No. 3 Stony Brook (34-14-1), No. 1 TCU (43-11)

Outlook: This is not going to be easy for the Wolfpack, but the good news is that the 3-seed and 4-seed aren't as competitive as some (Sacred Heart is 220th in the RPI, but got the automatic bid). The bad news is that even though TCU getting a national seed was somewhat controversial, the Horned Frogs are really, really good. Still, N.C. State could have gotten it much worse, and the Wolfpack proved last weekend it can compete with anyone in the country right now.

Other teams: No. 4 Ohio (36-19), No. 3 Wright State (41-15), No. 1 Illinois (47-8-1)

Outlook: Notre Dame doesn't do anything all that flashy, but the Irish just win baseball games. Illinois won 27 games in a row before losing to Maryland in the Big 10 Tournament, and they lost to eventual champs Michigan as well. The Illini have plenty of confidence and talent, and maybe they'll be better off having got some of the losses out of the way. But the No. 3 seed in Wright State is no slouch at No. 46 in the RPI. Notre Dame has its work cut out.

Other teams: No. 4 San Diego State (42-21), No. 2 USC (37-19), No. 1 UC Santa Barbara (40-15-1)

Outlook: Virginia is getting healthier and healthier, but it may end up being too little, too late. For the No. 21 team in the RPI to end up as a No. 3 seed is a bit surprising -- basically, that's 32 teams deemed better in terms of seeds -- but ultimately, that's not an awful thing. Virginia was 21 in the final RPI, while the host of their region UCSB is No. 20 and the No. 2 seed Southern Cal is No. 23. It would seem that it would be anyone's region to win, but will Virginia have enough pitching? They're probably a weekend away from getting ace Nathan Kirby healthy, but it might be too late.

Other teams: No. 4 Pepperdine (30-27), No. 2 Arizona State (34-21), No. 1 Cal State Fullerton (34-22)

Outlook: This is one of the more up-for-grabs regionals, as the top three teams are not separated by much. Cal State Fullerton has won 14 of 17 and beaten some good teams this season, and the Titans are CWS fixtures. They bounced back nicely from starting the season 2-5 and are always dangerous, but they're No. 25 in the RPI. Arizona State is also a presence in Omaha, and the Sun Devils -- No. 34 in the RPI -- are the No. 3 seed. Clemson most likely got the final spot in the field of 64 instead of North Carolina, who it lost to in its final ACC Tournament game. The Tigers showed some flashes late in the year, and they certainly have the talent (particularly the pitching talent) to win a regional like this. All it takes is one hot streak. The Tigers' RPI is 56, but that's a bit deceptive as they had a strong finish to the season.

share