The debate surrounding TCU and Baylor highlights a reality that's persisted in college football for decades: The later the loss, the more it costs.
Debate the fairness all you want. Time and time again, it's proven true. It's why, combined with a laughably soft nonconference schedule, No. 7 Baylor is still three spots behind No. 4 TCU in the College Football Playoff committee poll.
The committee's treatment of the two teams, despite Baylor's head-to-head victory over TCU has ignited a debate won't end until either team loses, but if they don't, there's a good chance it could be settled far from the state of Texas, where both TCU and Baylor play and the committee meets each Monday and Tuesday.
Where will it be settled?
How about Eugene, Ore. for the Pac-12 title game on Dec. 6? Maybe Tuscaloosa, Ala. on Saturday or two weeks later on Nov. 29? Keep your eyes on Oxford, Miss. the same day.
"The committee is going to stick to its principles and I think those principles start with, 'Who are the four best teams?' Not the four most deserving. Not the four with the biggest recent victory, but the four best teams," Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby told FOX Sports Southwest this week. "It isn't going to be about deservedness, it's going to be about who they think are the best teams at the time the selection is made."
TCU coach Gary Patterson did a bit of mild politicking Saturday night after his team's 41-20 win over No. 7 Kansas State, but didn't have much interest in adding to his argument on Monday morning.
"The only thing we can control is to win out. We can get a share of the Big 12 title. Baylor has a very good football team too," he said.
Baylor coach Art Briles isn't boarding a campaign bus anytime soon, either.
"The poll that matters is the last one they put out," he said.
TCU or Baylor on the final poll?
"I'd hate to have to choose between them," said West Virginia coach Dana Holgorsen, whose team beat Baylor and lost to TCU on a last second field goal, "so good luck to the committee."
There's a better chance than many realize that it could be TCU AND Baylor.
"I don't see that happening, but you never know how the last three weeks could play themselves out," Bowlsby said. "There are five leagues that are the frontrunners for those positions, and somebody's going to get left out. If two get in, two leagues will get left out."
Thanks to TCU and Baylor meeting way back in on Oct. 11, the road to two Big 12 teams in the playoff is a reasonable one.
An Alabama loss to Mississippi State on Saturday would eliminate the possibility of the Tide, who would then have two losses, finishing above TCU or Baylor.
An Alabama win could complicate the issue and muddle the group of one-loss teams, but like Baylor has learned, late losses will burn you. A double-digit loss might spell the end for Mississippi State's run, thanks to a weak nonconference schedule that featured dates with 3-7 Southern Miss, 5-5 UAB, 5-4 South Alabama and FCS UT-Martin.
Though Baylor and TCU might both get in, if Alabama beats Mississippi State in a close game on Saturday and both teams win out, TCU and Baylor could both win out and both get shut out of the playoff in favor of Mississippi State, Oregon, Florida State and Alabama.
Baylor and TCU's total resume rivals Alabama and either team would have a strong case to stay above the Crimson Tide, who earned their first win over a top 25 opponent last week, but Nick Saban's team would close the season with wins over Mississippi State, Auburn and either Georgia or Missouri in the SEC title game.
Outside the possible logjam atop the SEC West, Florida State is a 2.5-point favorite at Miami this weekend. The Seminoles have won three games by six points or less and trailed in the fourth quarter of another (Louisville). Jameis Winston's team has tiptoed disaster all season. Falling off the highwire wouldn't be a major surprise.
Oregon, like TCU and Baylor, will be favored the rest of the season but still faces a likely showdown at home against Arizona State in the Pac-12 Championship game.
All three teams ahead of TCU and five teams above Baylor (excluding TCU) have strong chances to take a loss. Two of them play each other on Saturday. TCU or Baylor have an outstanding chance to make the playoff without any late-season dramatics.
If one or two of those four teams suffer a loss, the Big 12 will have an outstanding case to place two teams in the four-team playoff with a chance to play for college football's biggest prize, six years since the Big 12 last played for the national title.
Fans of both teams and media covering the sport can debate each team's resume all they want, but Oregon, Mississippi State, Florida State and Alabama could make the debate pointless in a hurry and, perhaps, give TCU and Baylor a chance to add another on-field chapter to the debate about the better team.
HOW DID COACHES VOTE IN THE BIG 12 SOUTH CONTROVERSY OF 2008?
With TCU and Baylor on a crash course for a possible split title, you can't help but look back at the three-way tie in the Big 12 South in 2008 between Texas, Oklahoma and Texas Tech.
The Sooners had a much tougher nonconference schedule but lost on Oct. 11 to Texas, who assumed the No. 1 ranking before losing to Texas Tech in Lubbock on Nov. 1.
The three-way tie required the BCS rankings to decide who would represent the South in the Big 12 Championship Game vs. North champion Missouri. Oklahoma got the nod and Texas fans responded with outrage, flying a plane over Arrowhead Stadium that night touting the 45-35 final score in the Red River Rivalry two months earlier.
You'll see similar outrage from Baylor faithful if the Frogs get a nod ahead of the Bears, especially considering a three-way tie with one loss is impossible. Baylor would be the rightful Big 12 champion if both teams win out and will be submitted to the playoff committee as such by the Big 12.
I was curious, though: How did each coach vote back then? I couldn't help but giggle at the results, which were factored into the BCS rankings.
Patterson's ballot mirrored the final poll with Oklahoma at No. 1 and Texas at No. 3. The Sooners easily dispatched TCU, 35-10, in their final nonconference game that season.
Briles' ballot? Well, it was a lot more interesting. He had Oklahoma at No. 1, but placed Texas all the way down at No. 5. Half the coaches in college football vote in the poll each year. None had Texas lower than No. 5.
Oklahoma beat Baylor that year by 35 in Waco. The Bears lost to Texas in Austin by 24 points.
Like we noted above, neither Briles nor Patterson have done any serious campaigning that either of their teams deserve to get a spot in the playoff over the other, but you can't help but laugh at the irony six years later. Baylor needs the committee to grant the Bears the assertion that head-to-head trumps a slightly tougher nonconference schedule and an earlier loss, but Briles was unwilling to grant Texas the same back then.
It won't (and shouldn't) have any bearing this year, but just when you thought college football couldn't get any more intriguing, we see situations like this.
As you saw in my Final Four earlier this week, I have TCU above Baylor for now because of the Frogs' quality wins over Kansas State, Oklahoma, West Virginia and Minnesota. I only count two quality wins for Baylor right now: TCU and Oklahoma.
The difference between the two teams is miniscule, and close enough that if TCU has a couple close calls in its final three games and Baylor beats OSU, Texas Tech and Kansas State convincingly, I'll probably flip the two teams and it's a safe bet the committee would do the same.
But back to the 2008 coaches poll briefly, if I may: My favorite ballot belonged to Texas Tech coach Mike Leach. He had Oklahoma, who routed his team by 44 points, at No. 1. The Red Raiders finished eighth in the poll, but Leach had his team at No. 2, three spots ahead of Texas at No. 5, who Texas Tech famously beat on a last-second touchdown pass from Graham Harrell, now an assistant on Leach's staff at Washington State, to Michael Crabtree.
Never change, pirate king.
'ONE TRUE CHAMPION' ISN'T GOING ANYWHERE, BUT IT SHOULD
The Big 12's oft-repeated "One True Champion" slogan has met mountains of criticism in the midst of the TCU/Baylor debate. The conference handed out two trophies in 2012 when Oklahoma and Kansas State shared the Big 12 title, despite Kansas State beating Oklahoma on its home field in September.
When the league did away with divisions after Nebraska and Colorado's exit prior to the 2011 season, it asked the coaches their preference on the matter. They wanted two trophies and co-champions if the record was the same, Bowlsby told me. The Big 12 obliged.
"It's more than a marketing campaign. It says all our teams play each other every year. It’s as simple as that," Bowlsby said of the "One True Champion" phrase.
Still, it stands to reason the league could do away with both the phrase and the practice and spare itself some ridicule. When the Big 12 was first instituted and began play in 1996, coaches voted 12-0 against playing a championship game. The conference did it anyway.
Why not repeat history?
TEXAS RIDING HIGH WITH STRONG
It wasn't quite "So Proud" or "I'm a man, I'm 40," but moments after his first signature win, Charlie Strong got his signature moment at Texas.
Surely, you've seen it by now.
Strong's return to the locker room after Texas' 33-16 win over West Virginia had been delayed by television interviews on the field, and his waiting team didn't wait long to hoist him on its shoulders for a celebratory crowdsurfing session.
It was one of those spur of the moment things that happened. It was so good. I was happy for the players," Strong said. "I just wanted to make sure the right guys grabbed me, because the wrong ones would have dropped me."
A month ago, Texas was 2-4 with wins over North Texas and Kansas. It seemed wise for Longhorns fans to brace themselves for a year without a bowl, the Longhorns' second in five seasons. The Longhorns' were without three starters on the offensive line and had to watch head injuries end quarterback David Ash's career after the season opener.
"We've been through so much. It's been a tough year," Strong said.
Saturday marked the first time Texas had won consecutive games under Strong, and the Longhorns were dominant in both, beating Texas Tech by 21 before Saturday's 17-point victory.
Texas ran for 241 yards against Texas Tech and 227 against West Virginia, its two highest totals of the year.
"They've been battling each and every week and they've been close, but we've come up on the wrong end," Strong said. "For us to get that win on Saturday was good for us."
ROUGH MONTH FOR THE COMMISH
Bob Bowlsby's glad to be back at work. Doctors discovered he had a detached retina in his left eye in early October and wanted to schedule a surgery.
Bowlsby was hoping he could do it over Thanksgiving or Christmas and minimize his time out of the office.
Doctors insisted on doing it immediately. The first surgery put Bowlsby in a bed, face-down for two weeks.
"For a guy like me who's used to being active, it was like being in prison," he said.
A childhood injury complicated his healing process and required further treatment.
Bowlsby had another surgery in late October followed up by what he termed two "minor" procedures. The second and final treatment was last Thursday. Bowlsby was forced to cancel "nine or 10" trips because of his procedures and recovery, including Big 12 basketball media days in Kansas City last month.
Bowlsby believes he's back on the mend, though he still can't see well out of his left eye.
"It makes me an easy target for officiating jokes," he said.
STOOPS IN FAMILIAR, UNCOMFORTABLE POSITION AGAIN
Last year, Baylor ended Oklahoma's Big 12 title hopes with a 29-point victory.
Saturday, Baylor ended Oklahoma's Big 12 title hopes with a 34-point victory.
"We really hurt ourselves and we never recovered from it," Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops said.
Oklahoma led 14-3 entering the second quarter, but Trevor Knight threw an interception that was returned down to the 1-yard line and the Sooners missed a 31-yard field goal that would have tied the game at 17.
Baylor scored the game's final 45 points and once again provided the low point of a once-promising season in Norman.
Last year, Stoops got his Sooners to respond by blowing out Iowa State, running over Kansas State, upsetting Oklahoma State to spoil its Big 12 title hopes and, as the coup de grâce, beating No. 3 Alabama by two touchdowns in the Sugar Bowl.
The Sooners will be favored in their final three games this year against Texas Tech in Lubbock and at home against Kansas and Oklahoma State.
He'll be tested again. A 9-3 Oklahoma team on a three-game winning streak would still be attractive for bowls even if it's deeply disappointing for an Oklahoma fan base hungry for its eighth national title.
"You know you're out of the big thing, and you have to finish playing the very best you can. A year ago, we were sitting there in almost the same situation and we finished out the year and things ended up pretty positive," Stoops said. "You've got a chance to make that happen. You're really just looking at this next week and doing all you can to win that game."
FUN WITH NUMBERS
TCU leads the Big 12 and is sixth nationally in red zone touchdown percentage. The Frogs have allowed opponents in the red zone just 25 times and allowed touchdowns on just 10 occasions.
Baylor is the only team in the Big 12 who has allowed opponents inside the red zone on fewer occasions (23).
Baylor receiver Corey Coleman is now tied for fifth nationally with eight plays from scrimmage longer than 40 yards this season.
West Virginia has forced more punts (74) than all but two FBS teams (LSU, Clemson).
TWEET OF THE WEEK
POWER RANKINGS
For all the hype of the Texas and Texas A&M rivalry the last few years, there's something beautiful about the fact that TCU and Baylor are gunning for playoff spots. It only seemed appropriate to rank the state's FBS programs.
1. TCU
2. Baylor
3. Texas A&M
4. Texas
5. Texas Tech
6. Rice
7. UTEP
8. Houston
9. Texas State
10. North Texas
11. UTSA
12. SMU
