Exploring the numbers — from the RPI to the box scores — to venture guesses on how teams from the Big Ten, Atlantic 10, MAC and Horizon might look to the NCAA Tournament selection committee with six weeks until selection Sunday.
BIG TEN
TOURNAMENT LOCKS: 5 - Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Indiana
AND THE OTHER TOURNAMENT HOPEFULS…
ILLINOIS (16-7, 5-5 in the Big Ten)
Gonzaga, Ohio State, Michigan State
BAD LOSSES: at Penn State, Northwestern
BODY OF WORK: The Illini played a great non-conference schedule (Gonzaga, UNLV, Missouri, Maryland, Richmond) and started strong in conference play – strong enough to survive a current slump that’s seen them lose three of four. The relative strength of the Big Ten and the quality wins they’ve amassed give the Illini a strong tournament case.
CURRENT TOURNAMENT STANDING: In, despite the recent inconsistencies. The Illini are talented but puzzling and should be able to ride their strength of schedule and current RPI of 39 to the tournament bracket.
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PURDUE (15-8, 5-5)
Temple, Iona, Miami-FL, Illinois, Minnesota
BAD LOSSES: at Penn State, Butler
BODY OF WORK: The Boilermakers have a bunch of close losses and have lost three of four, all to sure tournament teams. Purdue’s strength of schedule is good, but its RPI of 54 and recent play could eventually push it to the NIT. If Purdue doesn’t turn things around, heartbreaking road losses to Xavier and Michigan could come back to bite the Boilermakers.
CURRENT TOURNAMENT STANDING: Squarely on the bubble, leaning towards the wrong side. Purdue needs a big win – it won’t get one at Ohio State Tuesday – and needs to climb the Big Ten standings. Return dates with Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State and Indiana await, and the Boilermakers have to be better than they were in a 17-point home loss to Indiana last weekend.
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MINNESOTA (17-7, 5-6)
at Indiana, Illinois, South Dakota State
BAD LOSSES: Iowa, at Iowa
BODY OF WORK: An 0-4 start in the Big Ten had this team miles away from the discussion about the NCAA Tournament. Rodney Williams’ emergence and a January hot streak did wonders for the Gophers’ confidence and potential postseason hopes, but the overall resume is still relatively weak.
CURRENT TOURNAMENT STANDING: The wrong side of the bubble, a fluid standing that could change soon as the Gophers badly need a marquee win and have Wisconsin and Ohio State visiting Williams Arena in the next eight days.
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ATLANTIC 10
TOURNAMENT LOCKS: 1 – Temple
AND THE OTHER TOURNAMENT HOPEFULS…
SAINT LOUIS (18-5, 6-3 in the A10)
Washington, Villanova, at Xavier, Dayton
BAD LOSSES: at UMass
BODY OF WORK: The Billikens have a strong team and a strong NCAA Tournament case. The home loss to Temple four weeks ago keeps Saint Louis from tournament lock status right now, but the strength of schedule has been good, as are the other numbers: Saint Louis is 34th in the RPI and 19th in the most recent Sagarin ratings.
CURRENT TOURNAMENT STANDING: In. The Billikens need at least a split from their road trip to St. Joe’s and LaSalle this week and would serve themselves well by beating Xavier later this month, but they’re certainly above the bubble with the four weeks remaining in the season.
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DAYTON (14-9, 4-5)
Minnesota, Alabama, St. Louis, at Temple, Xavier
BAD LOSSES: at Miami (Ohio), Buffalo, at St. Bonaventure, Rhode Island
BODY OF WORK: It’s been a roller-coaster ride of a season for the Flyers, who have endured injuries, head-scratching losses and a very strong schedule. The quality wins are there. The necessary momentum, right now, is not.
CURRENT TOURNAMENT STANDING: Wrong side of the bubble. The quality wins stand out, but with a four-game losing streak and a losing record in the A-10 the Flyers are falling and falling fast.
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XAVIER (15-8, 6-3)
at Vanderbilt, Purdue, Cincinnati
BAD LOSSES: at Hawaii, at LaSalle, Oral Roberts
BODY OF WORK: The Musketeers present one of the most complicated cases anywhere because of their losses suffered while playing without suspended players and the up-and-down nature of the last six weeks of their season. Xavier blew a double-digit lead last weekend at Memphis in a game that would put it on the right side of the bubble.
CURRENT TOURNAMENT STANDING: Squarely on the bubble, leaning towards the wrong side. Xavier needs to finish strong for its own confidence and that of the committee.
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HORIZON LEAGUE
TOURNAMENT LOCKS: None
THE LONE CONTENDER: CLEVELAND STATE (20-4, 10-2 in the Horizon)
at Vanderbilt, Akron
BAD LOSSES: Hofstra, Youngstown State
BODY OF WORK: Solid, but solid enough? Cleveland State has some quality wins, still has chances at others (Valparaiso, Butler and Drexel all visit Cleveland in the next 12 days) and its computer numbers should benefit as Vanderbilt, Akron and Kent all seem primed to finish the season strong. But the Vikings’ current RPI standing is 65th.
CURRENT TOURNAMENT STANDING: Wrong side of the bubble. The experienced Vikings are built for the NCAA Tournament but will likely need to win the Horizon Tournament to get there as the committee just won’t excuse losing to Hofstra on a neutral floor and Youngstown State at home.
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MID-AMERICAN CONFERENCE
TOURNAMENT LOCKS: None
TOURNAMENT HOPEFULS…
AKRON (16-7, 8-1 in the MAC)
at Mississippi State, at Marshall, Ohio
BAD LOSSES: None that stand out as terrible, but the Zips have lost too many to impress the selection committee
BODY OF WORK: Akron beefed up its non-conference schedule compared to recent years and is a better team for it, but the Zips lost heartbreakers – and chances to impress the committee – to VCU and Duquesne and at Valparaiso. The committee will note that Akron didn’t have its full roster for all but two of the losses, but getting blown out at West Virginia and Middle Tennessee crushes the Zips’ at-large hopes.
CURRENT TOURNAMENT STANDING: Wrong side of the bubble – and probably in the second tier of that group. There’s just not much margin for error for MAC teams, and even a win at Mississippi State likely can’t help the Zips overcome their late-November and early-December rut.
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OHIO (19-4, 7-2)
at Marshall, at Northern Iowa
BAD LOSSES: Robert Morris, at Bowling Green
BODY OF WORK: The Bobcats played extremely well in the season’s first six weeks, but a close loss at Louisville and a handful of narrow wins won’t impress the committee if/when that time comes. OU has a chance to finish strong and will certainly be among the MAC Tournament favorites; it just doesn’t currently have much of an at-large resume.
CURRENT TOURNAMENT STANDING: No real chance to get in as an at-large team.
