The BCS MESS: Pointspread Projections for every national title game scenario

BY foxsports • October 29, 2012

In addition to the 4 remaining unbeatens (with no disrespect to Louisville), there are also 4 relevant teams currently sitting with 1 loss on their resume.  Florida St has the chance against Florida to claim another signature. Gator nation's national title aspirations were temporarily derailed by the loss to UGA so Florida will need some help getting back into the title mix.  Georgia provides the most compelling case for a 1 loss team with an inside track to the SEC East title and subsequent opportunity to knock off either LSU or Alabama in the conference title game.  Knowing everything is fluid, here are the projected point spreads for all 8 teams if they matched up with one another on a neutral field this weekend.

  Alabama Oregon K St ND LSU Georgia UF
Oregon Bama -5            
Kansas St Bama -10.5 UO -5          

Bama -13 UO -9 KSU -2.5        
LSU   UO -5 LSU -1 LSU -3.5      
Georgia Bama -14 UO -8.5 KSU -3 UGA -1 LSU -3    
Florida Bama -10.5 UO -4.5 UF -1 UF -4 UF -1 UF -3  
Florida St Bama -9 UO -3 FSU -2.5 FSU -4.5 FSU -2 FSU -4 FSU -2.5

As you can see from the power numbers, Oregon is clearly the 2nd best team in the eyes of the experts. The team that poses the stiffest on field test for Bama and Oregon is actually Florida State followed closely by Kansas State.  While we continue to dog the Irish, it would be mighty tough to keep a 12-0 team with such proud tradition out of the title game.

Top 3 Mooses (bad beats) of the betting weekend...

Moose is a term those of us in the industry use for a bad beat. Anyone who bets football long enough eventually feels the wrath of the gambling gods. Special thanks to everyone on twitter who submitted their vote for the top bad beats of the weekend

Honorable Mention:

Houston -14 vs UTEP: Houston had a commanding 45-7 lead (including a 31 point cushion headed into the 4th) before UTEP mounted their point spread rally scoring the game's final 28 unanswered points.  The win was never in doubt but the Miners perseverance helped them sneak in the backdoor, creating one of the weekend's more improbable against the spread results.

3) USF -3.5 vs Syracuse

Leave it to Skip Holtz to squander a 23-3 halftime lead and burn his betting constituents. By all accounts a large lead should protect a cover, especially when the Bulls drilled a short field goal to go up 5 with 1:23 left. Ryan Nassib had other plans, leading the Orange to the game winning (and covering) TD drive with 3 seconds left.

2) Toledo -7.5 @ Buffalo

You have to be strong in the kicking game!!! For Rockets bettors they had all the offense they needed but left 3 valuable points on the board because of botched extra points. The Rockets failed to get on the scoreboard in the 4th quarter, letting a 25-14 lead shrink to an eventual 25-20 final score.

1) North Carolina -7.5 vs North Carolina State

This was a game that will go down in the moose hall of fame. North Carolina looked down and out headed into the 4th quarter trailing their in state rivals 35-25. It wasn't until then the Heels kicked their offense into high gear ratting off18 straight points capped off with a 74 yard punt return with 13 ticks remaining. However, NC St backers were still confident +7.5 was in great shape because UNC wouldn't dare go for 2. In the most unlikely of scenarios, a botched snap on the PAT led to a successful UNC 2 pt conversion, breaking hearts of Wolfpack bettors across the country.

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