Projected lineup
1. CF: Rajai Davis
2. SS: Yunel Escobar
3. 3B: Jose Bautista
4. 1B: Adam Lind
5. 2B: Aaron Hill
6. LF: Travis Snider
7. RF: Juan Rivera
8. DH: Edwin Encarnacion
9. C: J.P. Arencibia
Projected rotation
1. SP: Ricky Romero
2. SP: Brandon Morrow
3. SP: Brett Cecil
4. SP: Kyle Drabek
5, SP: Marc Rzepczynski/Jesse Litsch
CL: Frank Francisco/Octavio Dotel/Jon Rauch
Five tips
• Is Bautista going to hit 54 home runs again? Probably not, but 35 sounds about right. His improvement last season was no fluke, even if the final home run total was a bit extreme. While Bautista qualifies at both third base and the outfield, he’ll have much more value for you at the hot corner.
• Davis appears to have no competition for the leadoff job, and he stole 50 bases with the A’s last season. However, his career on-base percentage is just .330, because he doesn’t walk nearly enough. There’s a real chance that the Jays could get sick of Davis’ tremendous out-making skills by midseason and take away a lot of his playing time.
• People appear scared to death of picking Hill due to his .205 batting average last season, but that was largely because of an extremely unlucky .196 batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Hill’s career batting average is .270, and he’s likely to hit at least 25 homers again. If he can’t be your starting second baseman in a standard league, you’re too picky.
• Arencibia hit 34 homers between Triple A and the majors last year. Yes, he played in a hitter’s park (Las Vegas) in a hitter’s league (PCL), but that’s real power. Arencibia needs to walk more, and his propensity for striking out makes his batting average a worry. But he still looks like a high-end No. 2 fantasy catcher.
• Morrow showed electric stuff and improved control in his first full season as a starter, and is a trendy breakout pick. You’ll have to draft him as an SP3, but he should be worth it.
• Bonus: Lind played 11 games at first base and 16 in the outfield last year, so he might qualify only at designated hitter in your league.
Plus:
• Odd man out: The Rzepczynski/Litsch loser is an obvious odd man out. Also, speedy outfielder Scott Podsednik will be on the bench
• Top prospects:: Drabek is one of baseball’s top 20 prospects, and he’s probably going to be in the rotation to open the season. Second baseman Brett Lawrie (had eight homers, 36 doubles and 30 stolen bases at Double A) can hit and steal bases, but might end up in the outfield at some point. He’s been playing plenty of third base during a productive spring. If and when Lawrie comes up, Bautista can move to the outfield with Rivera as the likely casualty.
• Backup closer: This is another case of needing to figure out the closer before anointing a backup. Francisco, Dotel and Rauch will apparently compete for the role in spring training, and that’s the expected order of finish here.
