National Hockey League

Success in draft's later rounds crucial to Coyotes' success

Published Jun. 23, 2015 11:41 a.m. ET

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GLENDALE, Ariz. -- There's a simple reality at work when NHL teams make draft picks after the first round.

"There are more questions," said Coyotes director of amateur scouting Tim Bernhardt, who recently entered his second year in that position. "The odds of success diminish."

Unfortunately for the Coyotes, their odds have seemed longer than most teams. They made mostly poor choices in the later rounds during the tenures of GMs Bobby Smith and Mike Barnett. They operated with skeleton scouting and player development staffs while the team went through bankruptcy and an ownerless era, and the results are staggering when you glance at the chart below. 

The Coyotes cultivated far fewer late-round picks since 2000 than any of their Pacific Division rivals. That, in turn, forces GM Don Maloney to play the role of the Little Dutch Boy who stuck his finger in the dyke to stop the leaks through trades or free agency. In the last three playoff-less seasons, it became clear the Coyotes no longer can subsist on patchwork repairs. They need to rebuild the foundation. 

COYOTES 2015 DRAFT PICKS

Round 1: Nos. 3, 30
Round 2: Nos. 32, 60
Round 3: Nos. 63, 81
Round 5: No. 123
Round 7: No. 183

STAR STRUCK

A look at some of the Dallas Stars' late-round picks while Tim Bernhardt was director of amateur scouting:
John Klingberg, D (2010, 5th round)
Alex Chiasson, F (2009, 2nd)
Reilly Smith, F (2009, 3rd)
Colton Sceviour, F (2007, 4th)
Jamie Benn, F (2007, 5th)
James Neal, F (2005, 2nd)
Nicklas Grossmann, D (2003, 2nd)
Trevor Daley, D (2002, 2nd)
Mike Smith (pictured), G (2001, 5th)
Jussi Jokinen, F, (2001, 6th)
Antti Miettinen, D (2000, 7th)
Niko Kapanen, F, (1998, 6th)

"You have to come up with players, whether you get them in the fifth round or the first," Bernhardt said. "If you have a really good draft, you get two or three NHL players so that means if one doesn't pan out in the first round you have to have success in the later rounds to have a good day." 

It's hard to judge Maloney's success in the later rounds when you factor in those staffing issues and some bad luck. His first second-round pick as GM of the Coyotes was forward Brett MacLean, who was forced to retire due to a heart condition. In the 2009 and 2010 drafts, Maloney had just eight picks combined after the first round.

Bernhardt said the criteria don't necessarily change when evaluating late-round picks. The problem is that a player's NHL attributes are less obvious.

"It's almost impossible to come to anything close to a consensus on later picks so you have to rely on what your area scouts tell you," he said. "The guy that has seen him play 10 times; you have to go with that and have some courage and trust, rather than relying on one-time opinions."

Like every other team, the Coyotes look at a player's frame and evaluate how much he can fill out to withstand the rigors of the NHL game. Speed, skill and how quickly a player can read and react are other areas that comprise a player's evaluation. 

"Improvement potential is a huge thing," Bernhardt said. "All these 18-year olds are at different points in their development so scouts have to determine where they are on that spectrum. Are they at 95 percent capacity or 55 percent capacity? It's a huge factor to weigh.

"Then there's hockey sense. That's one thing you can't improve. You either have it or you don't. You can become a better skater and get bigger or faster or stronger -- they all do -- but that sense of how to play the game separates some players."

Follow Craig Morgan on Twitter

COMPARING THE COYOTES

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