By Zac Jackson
FOX Sports Ohio
February 15, 2011
COLUMBUS -- Some thoughts, numbers and storylines as Michigan State and Ohio State prepare for a 9 p.m. national TV showcase game that both teams need...
1. It's the Uncharted Territory Bowl. The Buckeyes are playing after a loss for the first time, and the Spartans are playing as a 14-10, decided underdog at this time of the year for the first time in a really, really long time. Michigan State hasn't had much in the way of good luck or solid play, but the Spartans are a talented group that will be up for this game. Ohio State will come out and be Ohio State, which means if they play defense the way they're capable -- and not the way they played it in the second half at Wisconsin -- they'll set themselves up for another victory and get back on track. This is Game Two in an important stretch run for the Buckeyes which includes a tough trip to Purdue Sunday and then a quick turnaround next Tuesday for a home rematch with Illinois, which will come in like Michigan State comes in tonight: Under the radar, desperate and dangerous.
2. This is the one lots of people circled at the beginning of the year as THE really big one. Michigan State was the preseason No. 2, and even though we weren't sure Jared Sullinger would be this good, this soon, it was pretty clear that this lone meeting between OSU and MSU was going to be a big one in the Big Ten race. OSU has made sure there's not much of a Big Ten race at all, and MSU fell out of it long ago. Kalin Lucas wasn't himself early in the year, Korie Lucious has been kicked off the team and the Spartans never recovered from a tough stretch that included respectable early losses to Duke, Syracuse and Texas and a rut early in Big Ten play. You know the names of Lucas and Lucious because MSU plays deep into March almost every year. Lucas is getting right after an Achilles' tear ended his junior season prematurely, and he's scored 20+ in four of the last five games. He'll be a handful tonight.
3. It's the back-half of February, which means it's crunch time. At 6-6 in the Big Ten, Michigan State enters tonight tied for fourth place with Illinois. The goal is to finish in the top five to avoid having to play an extra (Thursday) game at the Big Ten Tournament, which doesn't figure to be a big deal for any of the top three teams but could be huge for the Spartans' push to make the NCAA Tournament if they can't get on a roll over the next two weeks. Many projections have MSU as one of the last teams in or out and they could find themselves playing in Dayton in one of the new play-in games on Tuesday or Wednesday of tournament week. We know MSU has been a tournament team under Tom Izzo, but struggling to even get there is new territory. I lean towards thinking this group of Spartans being one nobody wants to see in the Big Ten Tournament or the following weekend, but we'll find out for sure starting tonight.
4. That Ohio State is no longer No. 1 -- and that the Buckeyes could regain the top spot based on Kansas' face plant Monday night -- is a point of discussion, but I don't think it's a factor in anybody's approach towards tonight's game. The Buckeyes handled their run as the unbeaten No. 1 team like pros, and I think they'll handle their first game after losing in similar fashion. Thad Matta said all along he never saw or heard his team spend a single second discussing being undefeated or getting big-headed, and it's that makeup and approach that makes me think they're built as well as anybody to eventually win the whole thing. Besides, the rankings mean nothing right now. I never considered Kansas the nation's best (or even third-best) team, and people who know the game better than I do felt the same way. I think it's very close at the top right now with Texas, Pitt and Ohio State all deserving, and thankfully we have a tournament at the end of college basketball season to get it settled.
5. It's no secret that teams will attack Ohio State with a patient offense built around launching a bunch of 3-pointers. What makes Michigan State dangerous is the Spartans have the athletes to maximize their chances in the open court and always play very good defense. Lucas will get his teammates in the right places and get his. The questions are, will MSU have Cleveland native Delvon Roe, the oft-injured forward who again has a knee injury, and can the Spartans stop Sullinger? Especially when William Buford is attacking and Jon Diebler is hitting, that's a very tough task. I look for very close game decided in the final minutes by defense and free-throw shooting.
Zac's Pick: Ohio State 66, Michigan State 58
