The bright lights and beauty of the casinos are simply a mirage. Behind the curtain, the business of sports in Las Vegas is predicting the future. They use complex algorithms to produce odds. These odds, in theory, should guide our answer to the question, "Who do you think will win tonight?"
Any time an entire season comes down to one game, whether a single-game playoff or a Game 7, it will be a crapshoot. Take a look at Aaron Boone's walk-off in 2003 or Kevin Brown's disastrous first two innings in 2004. One year the dice favor the Yanks, the next year Brown craps out.
Ten years later, the A's play the Royals with an ALDS trip on the line.
Sure, in theory Jon Lester might have a minute edge over James Shields. Or perhaps it is the other way. It depends on who is talking and the metrics they cite, but there is a reason Vegas has handicapped this as "Royals -110, total: 6.5 (UNDER -115)"
I just talked to Vegas insider for FOX Sports 1, Todd Furman. He shed some light on the topic.
"The current line is KC -110 / Oakland -110. The implication of the line at -110 both ways is that it's a true 50/50 proposition. When you factor juice into the equation the implied win probability is 52.4% here, basically a real coin flip by math guys/odds maker standards."
Here's the takeaway. You'll inevitably witness folks banter about who will win and why. Moreover, they will give the impression of certainty. Their reasoning may be sound, but put your chips back in your pocket. Trusting "gut feeling" analysis is the true gamble.
