Shared Belief in spotlight as Malibu Stakes headlines Santa Anita opener
There are two ways to approach betting the $300,000 Malibu Stakes, a seven-furlong race for 3-year-olds Friday on opening day of the winter/spring meet at Santa Anita Park.
The first option is to take a stand against the favorite, Shared Belief, and try to beat him. The second is to find a way to make a profit betting a horse who probably will be a short price but, on form, stands above the competition.
As you might have guessed, I am choosing the second option.
From a speed figure perspective, Shared Belief is the class of the field. He has the best career-top figure in the field according to Equibase and Beyer Speed Figures and also is consistently faster than the opposition.
Shared Belief has never run a bad race. His lone defeat came in this year's Breeders' Cup Classic when he was sideswiped at the start and steadied twice by jockey Mike Smith. I watched that race replay many times and came away impressed that he was able to finish fourth despite the trouble. I'm also convinced that he would have won with a clean trip.
Outside of the Classic, Shared Belief is 7-for-7. He was back on the workout tab a little more than two weeks after the Breeders' Cup, so he clearly came out of the race in good health, and he has five workouts since that race with plenty of time to recover. He's the best horse in the race, and I just don't see him losing.
If you were trying to build a case against Shared Belief, you could point out that according to both Equibase and Beyer Speed Figures, his three races in sprints (seven furlongs or less) have not been as fast as his two-turn races.
I believe this is because the sprints came in his first two career starts and then his first race at three in May following a five-month layoff rather than an indicator of vulnerability at shorter distances. He's plenty fast to stay within striking distance and Shared Belief is a better horse now.
Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert has four horses entered in the Malibu, including the two that I landed on as the top challengers to Shared Belief.
#5 Chitu: This is the big threat to Shared Belief. He's 3-for-3 sprinting and his lone finish outside of the top three was a 9th in the Kentucky Derby after pressing the pace at 1¼ miles. Chitu established a career-best Equibase Speed Figure of 106 when leading from start to finish in a 2 1/2-length victory Damascus Stakes on the Breeders' Cup Friday undercard. That was his first start since the Derby, and he's had plenty of time to recover from a big effort. The other horses who figure to challenge Chitu for the lead are stablemates Indianapolis and Pimpernel as well as, perhaps, 30-1 outsider Frensham. Because of that, I don't think this turns into a speed duel between stablemates, and Chitu should get a nice trip and have every chance to win at the top of the stretch.
#2 Pimpernel: I'm attracted to Pimpernel because of his most recent performance, his pedigree and his connections. This colt by Elusive Quality is a homebred of the powerful Juddmonte Farms breeding operation and, like Chitu, is from the barn of Baffert. Pimpernel's dam (mother) is champion Xtra Heat, who won 26 of 35 career starts and earned $2,389,635. Xtra Heat won 11 graded stakes, all in sprints, and finished second in the 2001 Breeders' Cup Sprint. Pimpernel's three career wins all have come at Santa Anita and he defeated highly regarded Hoppertunity in his most recent victory by a half-length at 7 furlongs on Oct. 29 at Santa Anita.
I think this race is all about Shared Belief and Baffert. Of Baffert's other two entrants â #3 Indianapolis and #6 Midnight Hawk â I much prefer Indianapolis.
Here is my strategy for making a profit on a $20 budget:
Strategy A
$13 exacta: 8 with 5 ($13)
$7 exacta: 8 with 2 ($7)
Total=$20
Strategy B
$5 trifecta: 8 with 2,5 with 2,3,5 ($20)
Total=$20
Strategy C: The Chitu Hedge
$12 exacta: 8 with 5
$8 exacta: 5 with 8
Total=$20
