Scoreboard watching: The Brewers' chase for the wild card
For the Milwaukee Brewers, it has become wild card or bust.
With the Chicago Cubs needing just one win or one Brewers loss to clinch the National League Central, Milwaukee's postseason hopes have now largely turned to catching -- and passing -- Colorado for the NL's second wild card.
Entering Tuesday's games, Milwaukee is 1 1/2 games in back of the Rockies for the right to play Arizona in a one-game, winner-take-all playoff. Colorado has five games remaining; Milwaukee six.
Since the wild card came into effect in the 1995 season (in 2012, a second wild card was added), six teams have been 1.5 games (or worse) behind with six games remaining in the wild-card standings yet emerged as a playoff team.
In 2011, both St. Louis and Tampa Bay were two games behind and won the wild card. The other four were, like this year's Brewers, 1.5 games behind: 1999 Mets, 2004 Astros, 2007 Rockies and 2008 Brewers.
Milwaukee gets to face Cincinnati in the next three games (with an opportunity to gain a half-game on Thursday as Colorado is off) in the final regular-season games at Miller Park. The Brewers are 5-1 at home against the Reds in 2017. In addition, Cincinnati has been swept in a three-game series nine times this year, the most of any National League team (only the White Sox, 10, have been swept more).
Let's break down the Brewers-Reds and remainder of Rockies-Marlins (Miami beat Colorado 5-4 on Monday).
Tuesday
Reds-Brewers, 6:40 p.m.
Deck McGuire vs. Zach Davies
McGuire will be making his first major-league start after appearing in four games (5 2/3 scoreless innings) out of the bullpen. He's no fresh face, though, as he turned 28 in June. Pitching in Double-A this year, McGuire had a 2.79 ERA, 1.083 WHIP and 9.1 K/9.
Davies is searching for his 18th victory which would be just the eighth time in Brewers history a pitcher has reached that total. He has made three starts against Cincinnati this season, going 1-1 with a 2.30 ERA. Davies' has a 2.70 ERA since the All-Star break.
Marlins-Rockies, 7:40 p.m.
Jose Urena vs. Tyler Anderson
Urena has been Miami's best pitcher this season, with a 14-5 record, 3.55 ERA and 1.215 WHIP. However, he allowed 1.3 HR/9 (and this game is in Colorado) and his road ERA is 4.09. He faced Colorado just once this season, allowing three runs in five innings in Miami.
Anderson has struggled with a 5.24 ERA this season and allowed 1.8 HR/9 (hello, Giancarlo Stanton!). But Anderson actually has been better at Coors Field this season, with a 4.98 ERA and just four homers allowed in 34 1/3 innings.
Wednesday
Reds-Brewers, 7 p.m.
Homer Bailey vs. Brandon Woodruff
Bailey has been awful in 2017, posting a 6.96 ERA and 1.750 WHIP in 17 starts. In three starts against Milwaukee. He has a 7.07 ERA and has given up five home runs in 14 innings. However, in his one start at Miller Park he allowed two runs in five innings. In his career, Bailey has a 4.31 ERA at Miller Park with 11 home runs in 71 innings.
Woodruff has been solid in his rookie season, with a 3.76 ERA and 1.230 WHIP in seven starts, although he has struggled some in two of his last three appearances. He has yet to face the Reds.
Marlins-Rockies, 2:10 p.m.
Adam Conley vs. Jon Gray
After a solid first two years in the majors, Conley has slipped in 2017, posting a 5.74 ERA, 1.495 WHIP, 1.6 HR/9 and a career-low 6.5 K/9. Conley has been better on the road (4.42 ERA) than home (7.23 ERA), but might be on fumes as he's allowed 17 runs and 24 hits in just 16 innings over four September starts.
While sidetracked with injuries, Gray is Colorado's ace -- the only Rockies pitcher who has made a start this season with an ERA under 4, in his case 3.62 (to go with a 1.313 WHIP and 9.2 K/9). Gray has a 2.93 ERA at home and has allowed just three home runs in 40 innings at Coors Field. In 10 starts in August and September, Gray has a 2.24 ERA (although Colorado is just 6-4 in those games).
Thursday
Reds-Brewers, 3 p.m.
Sal Romano vs. Brent Suter
Romano, another rookie, is 5-7 with a 4.43 ERA and 1.463 WHIP. The right-hander has made two starts against Milwaukee and allowed 11 runs (10 earned) in eight innings. One of those was in his major-league debut back on April 16. In Milwaukee on Aug. 13, the Brewers got to him for seven runs in five innings. Romano has been better in September, with a 3.18 ERA and 1.324 WHIP in four starts.
Suter has turned things around in September after a rough August, posting a 1.56 ERA and 1.212 WHIP in five games (four starts). He has faced Cincinnati three times this season, with one start, allowing five runs in seven innings.
