In a made-for-TV matchup that just might challenge the non-championship bowl ratings record, defending national champion Florida State heads west to Pasadena on the heels of a by-the-skin-of-its-teeth regular season. If it's possible for two undefeated seasons to be polar opposites of one another on the field, the Seminoles just accomplished it, trailing late to inferior on multiple occasions only to mount comeback after comeback. Its reward? The second-ranked Oregon Ducks, a high-power offense featuring the Heisman Trophy winner that has shown the propensity to take early leads and bury quality opponents.
This Florida State Seminoles team is Oregon's biggest obstacle of the season -- a supremely talented team that flirts with disaster but ultimately understands how to win -- but the Ducks are also the best team FSU coach Jimbo Fisher's team has come across since last season's down-to-the-wire BCS Championship game against Auburn.
The matchup that will dominate headlines, though, is one of perception. Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota, two Heisman-winning quarterbacks, will never go head-to-head. That's obviously not how this works. But in arguably the sport's most notable postseason game, in terms of individual star power, since Sam Bradford and Tim Tebow met in the 2008 national title game, the Winston-Mariota meeting is TV gold. It's only the third time in history that two Heisman winners have met on a college football field, and the nation will be watching.
Winston owns a national championship ring and has never lost a game in college, but has struggled with turnovers and decision-making (17 interceptions) for the better part of the '14 season.
Mariota, on the other hand, is a three-year starter that has suffered his share of big-game losses (comparatively speaking, just four total) but also boasts better individual numbers and is playing better than any other individual player in the country. Both players are projected to be top-10 NFL Draft picks. Both players have the ability to wreak havoc on an opposing defense and take over a game that will decide one half of the national title game.
As for a combined "By The Numbers" look: five individual seasons, two Heisman trophies, three conference championships, three major bowl wins, 62-4 overall record, 200 total touchdowns and 39 interceptions. Not bad.
There are other "key factors" to discuss with this matchup, but for both teams it all starts with quarterback play.
Dalvin Cook, Florida State
Florida State ranks 104th nationally in rushing, but there's a significant separation between the overall production and the talent level. The Seminoles entered the season with senior Karlos Williams, a former five-star prospect and 700-yard rusher for the '13 national champions, as their No. 1 running back, but plans changed. Dalvin Cook made them change and the Seminoles are a better team when they feature the explosive freshman.
After logging just 11 carries in the team's first four games against Power 5 opponents, Cook burst onto the scene with a 100-yard, one-touchdown game against Syracuse. He followed that up with a similar performance against then-No. 20 Louisville with his team on the ropes. In close wins against Florida and Georgia Tech, he totaled 321 rushing yards to keep Florida State from suffering its first loss since 2012.
If it wasn't apparent early on, it is now: Cook is special.
With defenses keying on Winston and his receivers -- forcing plenty of turnovers in the meantime -- Jimbo Fisher's offense is at its best when it avoids becoming too one-dimensional with the passing game. With the added desire to keep Mariota & Co. off the field, if Florida State doesn't log in the neighborhood of 30-35 rushing attempts it will not be a good sign. Cook is one of the team's top playmakers and the Seminoles will look to get the ball in his hands early and often.
7: Florida State played seven games decided by seven points or fewer this season, including its final four wins against Miami, Boston College, Floirda, Georgia Tech to cap its second straight undefeated regular season. The Seminoles finished the 2013 regular season winning by an average of 42.3 points per game.
5: For the fifth straight season, the Oregon offense finished top-five nationally in scoring offense. The Ducks' scoring average over that stretch: 46.9 points per game.
9: The Seminoles have beaten their past nine non-conference opponents dating to a November 2012 loss to then-No. 6 Florida.
Outside of its unblemished record, Florida State will board the plane bound for California with an inferior resume. The Seminoles haven't beaten a team convincingly since pulling away from a 5-7 Virginia team on Nov. 8, and now its tasked with taking down a bona fide powerhouse. In four games against ranked teams, only one of which was a true road game, Fisher's team won by a combined 23 points. Oregon is coming off a Pac-12 title win over the seventh-ranked Arizona Wildcats in which it won by 38 points and it could have been worse.
Oregon is the better team in offensive and defensive drive efficiency, features the best player in college football this season and out-ranks Florida State in nearly every major statistical category. The list goes on and on. And yet one team absolutely refuses to lose.
Winston, Rashad Greene and Nick O'Leary will challenge a subpar pass defense -- one that ranked 103rd nationally this season and will be without top corner Ifo Ekpre-Olomu due to an ACL tear during bowl practices -- but in the end the edge goes to Mariota and the Ducks. It will take a four-quarter, 60-minute effort, but Oregon enters the Rose Bowl as the better team.
