Hey, this is good news.
Ninety-eight percent of the time, when we use the word "regression" we're talking about a team or a player that's likely to suffer a performance decline, usually because the underlying skills don't support the current numbers.
But that's not exactly what "regression" means. It's short for "regression to the mean" and it can work both ways.
In the Blue Jays' case, an average team with a +35 run differential will be 31-24 ... rather than the Jays' actual 25-30.
Well, that's a huge difference. If the Jays were 31-24 they'd be in first place. And it's not just run differential. The Blue Jays rank fourth in the whole American League in BaseRuns, and they're just off the A.L. East pace in BP's third-order winning percentage.
Again, all good news!
Alas, while everybody agrees that the Blue Jays have underperformed their underlying performance, everybody also agrees that the Blue Jays' underlying performance has actually been somewhat better than their actual talents.
I hope that makes sense. Essentially, the projections for the rest of the season suggest a .500 team. Which obviously doesn't bode well for their final record, since they're below .500 now.
Which means they're not actually such great candidates for meaningful regression after all.
