We bemoan the shortages at certain positions each and every season. The shortstop position in 2011 is no different. The top options are guaranteed locks on the draft board. There isn’t much room for debate.
As we roll down through the rankings, fantasy owners create lines of demarcation between the power and speed options. There are few players who routinely contribute to all five standard categories, so you’ll need to make a stand. Do you want power from the position? Or are you looking for speed and batting average?
You can avoid the discussion by winning one of the top two slots in the draft and selecting Hanley Ramirez.
30. Paul Janish, Cincinnati
The Reds signed well-traveled veteran shortstop Edgar Renteria as insurance should Janish falter this spring. In extended looks these past two seasons, Janish has demonstrated decent pop with 37 extra-base hits and 41 RBI in 456 at-bats, but has registered an anemic .226 batting average. The lineup and ballpark to support him are there. Will he take the next step this spring?
29. Clint Barmes, Houston
Fantasy owners celebrated Barmes’ arrival to Colorado in his 81-game introduction to the squad in 2005. He batted .410 in the month of April prior to the infamous stairwell incident that essentially ended his season. It took three years for Barmes to become fantasy-relevant once again. He batted only .245 in 2009, but finally produced Coors Field-worthy numbers (23 home runs, 32 doubles and 76 RBI with 12 stolen bases). Last year’s follow-up left owners wanting, as his power numbers dropped across the board, his stolen bases disappeared, and he missed 29 games.
He’ll look to reclaim his place in the fantasy realm in a new home. With regular at-bats, Barmes may settle into a zone between his 2009 and 2010 seasons. He can hit for some power in Houston, but don’t anticipate a boost in average or stolen bases.
28. Ronny Cedeno, Pittsburgh
Cedeno popped onto the fantasy radar briefly with the Cubs in 2006. He batted .245 with 31 extra-base hits (six home runs), 41 RBI and eight stolen bases. He then disappeared for several years and played briefly in Seattle before finding a home in Pittsburgh. Cedeno demonstrated tremendous gap power for the Pirates in 2010, producing 29 doubles with eight home runs in 468 at-bats. He also stole 12 bases in 15 attempts with a middling .256 batting average. He’s by no means dominant, but he’s a versatile option who may be serviceable in the MI slot.
27. J.J. Hardy, Baltimore
It appeared that Hardy had shaken his early injury issues when he posted phenomenal back-to-back seasons in 2007 and 2008. He hit 50 home runs and 60 doubles with 154 RBI in that two-year stretch.
Unfortunately, he’s been beset by injuries in the past two seasons, and we saw his power numbers drop precipitously. Hardy missed 61 games last season because of a wrist injury. If healthy, Hardy’s power numbers rebound in an interesting and improved Baltimore lineup. He’s only a .263 career batter, so the upside in that category is limited (he batted .283 and .277 in his best two seasons).
26. Alcides Escobar, Kansas City
Escobar’s calling cards in Kansas City will be speed and batting average. He was a .293 batter with 176 stolen bases in 237 attempts during his six-year tenure in the Milwaukee minor league system.
In his first full major league season, Escobar batted only .235 and stole 10 bases. However, he did register 10 triples and 28 extra-base hits (including 10 doubles). At just 23 years old, the Venezuelan shortstop has plenty of room to grow.
25. Erick Aybar, Los Angeles Angels
Aybar hasn’t offered much in the power categories at the major league level, having hit just five home runs in back-to-back seasons with a total of 87 RBI in more than 1,000 at-bats. However, the potential is there, as Aybar did hit a total of 120 doubles with 40 triples and 39 RBI during his extended minor league career. Taken further, the 26-year-old shortstop has hit 59 doubles in the past three seasons in Los Angeles.
He does offer immediate dividends in the stolen-base category (22 in 2010) and has potential for a solid batting average. Aybar’s contact rate dropped by five percent from 2009 to 2010, a factor that obviously contributed heavily to the 59-point drop in his batting average. He’s batted .273 in parts of five major league seasons.
24. Yuniesky Betancourt, Milwaukee
Betancourt experienced a breakthrough season in 2010, his sixth in Major League Baseball. He finally translated his sizable yearly doubles total into home runs and demonstrated a more consistent power stroke overall. Betancourt produced 47 extra-base hits and a career-high 16 home runs and 78 RBI in 2010.
Betancourt is a good contact hitter with gap power (including 20 or more doubles in five consecutive seasons). His .272 batting average isn’t overwhelming, but solid power numbers make up for it. He’s moved to a better lineup and should see more RBI opportunities in Milwaukee.
23. Orlando Cabrera, Free agent
The Reds did not exercise the option on Cabrera’s contract, thereby making the longtime pro a free agent. He played one season in Cincinnati, batting .263 with four home runs and 33 doubles in 123 games. Cabrera extended his streak to 10 consecutive seasons with at least 11 stolen bases. He’s a career .274 batter who presents moderate contributions in every standard category with regular at-bats.
22. Jed Lowrie, Boston
Lowrie didn’t return to the Red Sox lineup until late July, as a wrist injury and mononucleosis kept him sidelined for the early part of the year. He batted .287 with 23 extra-base hits (including nine home runs) and 24 RBI in 55 games following his return.
The Red Sox had been running with Marco Scutaro, who suffered an injury of his own, at shortstop while Lowrie was out. Scutaro then shifted to second base following Dustin Pedroia’s season-ending injury. I suspect that there’s a positional battle on tap for the spring. The 26-year-old (becomes 27 at the end of April) middle infielder has power potential, as he did hit 25 doubles during his 2008 introduction to Boston.
21. Cliff Pennington, Oakland
In five minor league seasons, Pennington demonstrated a strong batting eye (with a nearly even walk-to-strikeout ratio) and gap power (93 doubles), and tore up the basepaths (107 stolen bases).
His minor-league numbers served as perfect predictors for his entry to Oakland. Pennington batted .250 with 40 extra-base hits (including 26 doubles and six home runs) and 46 RBI with 29 stolen bases. He did strike out more than anticipated (18.9 percent of his at-bats), nearly twice as often as he walked.
Pennington is just entering his prime power years, so I suspect that his home-run numbers will rise. Obviously, the ceiling is lowered by playing in Oakland-Alameda County Stadium, but there’s room for improvement. In the interim, take the stolen bases and run generation.
20. Jason Bartlett, San Diego
Following a career year in 2009 when Bartlett batted .320 with 14 home runs and 66 RBI, he regressed markedly in 2010. His batting average dropped some 66 points despite virtually no change in his contact rate.
Bartlett’s home run total dropped from 14 to four and his stolen-base total dropped from 30 to 11. He’d stolen 20 or more bases in three consecutive seasons prior to last year’s downturn.
I am encouraged by the fact that he batted .279 in the second half of the season. The move to San Diego (his original organization) won’t help his power numbers, but a full season should allow him to be active on the basepaths once again as his average rebounds in line with his career .281 mark.
19. Yunel Escobar, Toronto
Following two strong years in Atlanta, Escobar struggled in early 2010 and found himself in Toronto for the final 60 games of the season. His power numbers dipped precipitously last season. Escobar’s home run total fell from 14 to four (with zero in 261 at-bats for Atlanta), and he drove in only 35 runs. More problematic was the fact that Escobar batted only .256.
To be fair, he was able to jumpstart his bat following the move. He batted .275 with the Blue Jays and hit all four of his home runs. Escobar is a .289 batter for his career, and I expect to see his power and batting average fall in line with his career marks in Toronto.
18. Reid Brignac, Tampa Bay
The versatile Brignac assumes the starting shortstop role following the departure of Jason Bartlett. He batted .256 year with 22 extra-base hits (eight home runs) and 45 RBI in 113 games for the team last year.
Brignac demonstrated solid power during his minor league career, posting four seasons with at least 15 home runs and six seasons of at least 26 doubles. His high-strikeout rate (one per 3.91 at-bats) is moderately concerning, but I anticipate watching Brignac lace a lot of balls to the gap this season.
17. Ryan Theriot, St. Louis
Following a brief stop in Los Angeles, Theriot moves back to the NL Central. He offers three-category support in the fantasy realm. Theriot will hit for a solid batting average (.284 lifetime mark), score runs (72 or more in four consecutive seasons) and steal bases (20 or more in four consecutive seasons). He offers little help in the power categories. Theriot’s best home run output was seven in 2009 when he drove in 54 runs.
16. Marco Scutaro, Boston
Scutaro performed beautifully for the Red Sox last season and served as a capable backup for injured starters Jed Lowrie and Dustin Pedroia. He played in a career-high 150 games with 49 extra-base hits (11 home runs), 56 RBI and 92 runs scored. It was a nice follow-up to his 12-home run, 60-RBI season in Toronto. The only change in his game from 2009 was that Scutaro stole nine fewer bases (he’d never stolen more than seven in a season prior to the 2009 outlier).
He’s a solid contact hitter who knows how to place the ball. Scutaro has hit 21 or more doubles in six of the past seven seasons.
15. Miguel Tejada, San Francisco
Tejada isn’t going to turn heads like he did in his Oakland heyday, but he’s still a solid contributor in his return to the Bay Area. He’s hit 13 or more home runs with 66 or more RBI in 12 consecutive seasons. Tejada’s batting average will languish in the .265-.275 range, but he’ll help move the line for the defending champions.
14. Jhonny Peralta, Detroit
Peralta isn’t an exciting option, but he’s been a fairly consistent performer in the power categories. He’s hit 11 or more home runs while averaging 78.5 RBI in six consecutive seasons. Peralta has also averaged 28.1 doubles during this period. He shan’t offer much in the batting average department (with a .263 lifetime batting average), but he’ll have opportunities to drive in runs in Detroit.
13. Alex Gonzalez, Atlanta
When healthy and given regular at-bats, Gonzalez will produce solid power numbers and little more. Gonzalez has hit 14 or more home runs in five seasons, and his 88 RBI in 2010 established a new career high (had six home runs and 38 RBI in 267 at-bats for the Braves). He owns a career .248 batting average and has logged only 27 stolen bases.
12. Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles Dodgers
Furcal missed much of the 2010 season with a hamstring injury, but I’d remiss if I failed to acknowledge his brilliant first-half performance. In fact, Furcal was a fantastic fantasy performer through the end of July. He batted .320 through July with eight home runs, 38 RBI and 18 stolen bases.
There’s not much upside in his power numbers (he’s hit nine or fewer home runs in the past four years), but Furcal is a .286 batter with great speed when healthy.
11. Asdrubal Cabrera, Cleveland
Cabrera broke his left forearm early in May, so much of his statistical dropoff in 2010 can be attributed to lingering effects from the injury. In his breakout 2009 season, Cabrera demonstrated fantastic gap power and speed. He hit 42 doubles (six home runs) with 68 RBI and 17 stolen bases. He also batted .308 in 2009. I anticipate that Cabrera returns to those heights as the Indians return to health in 2011.
10. Ian Desmond, Washington
Desmond ranked among the top sleepers at the position in 2010. He delivered in a big way with solid contributions across the board. Desmond delivered 41 extra-base hits (including 10 home runs) with 65 RBI and 17 stolen bases and a respectable .269 batting average. I am moderately concerned about his strikeout-to-walk ratio (109-to-28) when considering the ceiling for his batting average. However, the team’s offseason improvements should create additional run-producing opportunities.
9. Starlin Castro, Chicago Cubs
Castro left Cubs fans optimistic in an otherwise dismal 2010 campaign. The 20-year-old shortstop slammed 31 doubles with 41 RBI and 10 stolen bases in his introduction to Major League Baseball. Castro batted an even .300 in 125 games. The sky is the limit as he fills out and refines his approach at the plate. He may be a five-tool bargain for fantasy owners this spring.
8. Stephen Drew, Arizona
The hype machine has now attached itself to myriad other prospects. Drew is now a solid, albeit unspectacular, four-category fantasy contributor, as he enters his sixth major league season. He’s averaged 33.5 doubles, 15 home runs and 63.3 RBI in his four full seasons in Arizona. Drew’s 10 stolen bases in 2010 established a new career high, and his .278 batting average was six points higher than his career mark. Now entering his power prime in a good home park, there’s some upside to his power production, but the ceiling is lower than once thought. A return to his career-high mark of 21 home runs is a possibility.
7. Elvis Andrus, Texas
Let’s not kid ourselves here. There’s no power here. Andrus game is about getting on base and helping to keep the conga line moving. He batted .265 last season with just 18 extra-base hits (including 15 doubles) with 35 RBI. Andrus contributed to the Rangers’ run with a steady glove, 88 runs scored and 32 stolen bases, his second straight season with at least 32 steals (had 33 in 2009). Andrus isn’t going to hit for a dominant average (hitting .266 in two seasons), but he’ll leg out enough hits to give the big boppers opportunities.
6. Alexei Ramirez, Chicago White Sox
In his three major league seasons, Ramirez has established himself as a fantastic five-category contributor. He’s averaged 18 home runs, 71.7 RBI and 13.3 stolen bases with a composite .283 batting average. The White Sox rebuilt the lineup for 2011 to take advantage of the home park. Take the steady all-around production.
5. Derek Jeter, New York Yankees
The name recognition and fascination with pinstripes alone will keep Jeter among the first shortstops taken in fantasy drafts. He batted a career-low .270 last season, but extended his streak of seasons with double-digit home runs and stolen bases to 15 (had 10 home runs and 18 stolen bases). Jeter also scored more than 100 runs (111) for the 13th time in his career.
I don’t believe that he’ll bounce back to approach his .334 batting average of 2009, but his contact rate didn’t change markedly. If healthy, Jeter bats .300 or better and hits 12-15 home runs, while scoring runs in the loaded New York lineup. He’s no longer dominant, but he’s not dropping off into oblivion, either.
4. Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia
Rollins has battled injuries frequently since his 2007 season. He was limited to just 88 games in 2010. He finished the year with 27 extra-base hits (including eight home runs) and 41 RBI with 17 stolen bases.
He’s one of the larger questions on the board at the position this season. Rollins had stolen at 30 bases in eight of the previous nine seasons with tremendous gap power (had seven seasons with at least 38 doubles). Rollins’ batting average has also dropped in three consecutive seasons, which is most definitely a cause for concern. However, a deeper look into his situational numbers reveals that Rollins batted .329 with runners in scoring position (and hit .304 with runners on-base). If moved out of the leadoff spot and down in the order (to fifth?), Rollins will most definitely have frequent opportunities to hit with Chase Utley or Ryan Howard on base.
3. Jose Reyes, New York Mets
Reyes will start the season in the leadoff role for the Mets. He seeks to leave two injury-shortened seasons in the rearview mirror (he’s missed a total of 155 games). In 133 games last season, Reyes stole 30 bases in 40 attempts with solid power numbers (40 extra-base hits) and a .282 batting average.
His .335 career on-base average is not what you want in a leadoff hitter. However, Reyes does change the complexion of the game with his speed, and he does carry a solid .282 career batting average. The Mets will welcome Carlos Beltran back from injury and Jason Bay from a miserable season of tepid production. If fully healthy, he’s a threat to return to the upper-50s in the stolen-base category (he did so in four consecutive seasons prior to the injury-shortened 2009 season). That’s rare air in today’s Major League Baseball.
2. Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado
Tulowitzki posted a fantastic follow-up to his 2009 comeback season. He ripped 62 extra-base hits (27 home runs) with 95 RBI, 89 runs scored, 11 stolen bases and a career-best .315 batting average in just 122 games.
What else is there to say? If healthy, Tulowitzki is going to dominate opposing pitching. He logged 24 home runs and 99 RBI with a strong .291 batting average in his first full season in 2007. Following an injury-shortened 2008 season, Tulowitzki returned with a vengeance in 2009 (producing 32 home runs, 92 RBI, 20 stolen bases, 101 runs scored and a new career-best .297 batting average).
Although the ball doesn’t play at Coors Field as it used to, Tulowitzki remains a monster at the home park (hit .339 with 37 extra-base hits last year).
1. Hanley Ramirez, Florida
Ramirez is one of the few true five-tool players in the game. In his five full seasons in Florida, Ramirez has averaged 24.8 home runs, 77.8 RBI, 112.4 runs scored and 39.2 stolen bases with a .313 batting average. He’s never recorded fewer than 51 extra-base hits in a season and has appeared in at least 142 games every year.
Ramirez will receive additional support in the middle of the lineup because of the maturation of young sluggers Gaby Sanchez and Mike Stanton.
