I’m ranking my top 70 outfielders, and I’ll take you to No. 1 by building up to that drama.
70. Domonic Brown, Philadelphia
The 23-year0old outfielder takes over for the departed Jayson Werth in right field. Brown demonstrated top-notch power potential in the minor leagues and produced in all five standard categories. He batted .327 with 22 doubles, 20 home runs, 68 RBI and 17 stolen bases in 93 minor league games last season.
Brown struck out 24 times in his 62 at-bats, so his contact rate needs to improve. He’ll get his shot this spring in one of the best lineups and home yards in the game.
69. Seth Smith, Colorado
Smith nearly replicated every aspect of his 2009 season except his batting average during the 2010 campaign. His power numbers were essentially unchanged, but his batting average dropped 47 points. Smith was terrible on the road, batting an anemic .209 away from Coors Field (.284 at home). His road woes may cost him at-bats and open up a platoon situation.
68. Scott Podsednik, FA
Podsednik rejected his option with the Dodgers and sits on the open market as a free agent as of this writing. He remains a strong speed candidate and a batting average contributor when healthy. Podsednik stole 30 or more bases in the last six seasons in which he played in at least 129 games. He batted .304 for the White Sox in 2009 and .297 between the Royals and Dodgers in 2010.
67. Garrett Jones, Pittsburgh
Jones’ batting average dropped markedly last season, and he only matched his 2009 home run total despite logging 278 more at-bats. He hit 13 additional doubles with 19 more runs scored. The big number to circle on Jones is his .324 career on-base percentage (compiled .306 in 2010). Jones batted .220 against left-handed pitchers last year (hit .208 in 2009). I suspect he takes a seat on such days this year.
66. Logan Morrison, Florida
Morrison got the late July callup and appeared in 62 games for the Marlins. He batted .283 with 29 extra-base hits (20 doubles), 18 RBI and a 51/41 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Morrison is just age 23 and has great potential for growth. Obviously, his home ball park doesn’t help in that department. Still, I’m optimistic that he builds on his strong introduction to Florida in the youthful Marlins lineup.
65. Travis Snider, Toronto
Snider missed an extended period with a wrist injury in 2010 and was limited to just 82 games. He hit 14 home runs and 20 doubles with 32 RBI in 298 at-bats (had one extra-base hit per 8.8 at-bats). Snider stole six bases and batted 14 points higher than his 2009 total. The only knock on him at this point of his career is that he strikes out nearly four times per walk. I’ll take the power production as the 23-year-old slugger learns on the job.
64. J.D. Drew, Boston
Drew occupies right field in the retooled Boston lineup that gives fans hope of a new Manny/Papi-like era. He’s hit 19 or more home runs in three consecutive seasons in Boston (had 11 in his 2008 struggles) while averaging 66.7 RBI.
Drew struggled in the second half of the season, batting .231 in 61 games (hitting 44 points lower than his first-half production). He’s a career .281 batter, so we can reasonably expect a moderate rebound in that category. Drew’s health is always a concern (he’s played in 146 games or fewer in every season of his career), but he’ll have ample opportunity to boost his RBI total with Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez aboard.
63. Nyjer Morgan, Washington
Morgan posted a ridiculous .351 batting average in 49 games after joining the Nationals in 2009. That clearly wasn’t going to be replicated, but his 98-point drop in that column couldn’t have been anticipated, either. Morgan batted .253 with 24 extra-base hits (including zero home runs) and 24 RBI. He has potential to be a three-category producer for fantasy owners this season, but the high stolen-base total is the only given (had 18, 24 and 34 stolen bases in the past three years).
62. Coco Crisp, Oakland
Crisp appeared in only 75 games last season and became a waiver-wire hero with 32 stolen bases, a solid .279 batting average, eight home runs and 38 RBI. If healthy, Crisp will lace balls into the gap to set up the heart of the order, produce a serviceable batting average (.277 career) and steal 20 or more bases (has five seasons with at least 20 thefts in the past seven years).
61. Jose Tabata, Pittsburgh
The former Yankees prospect made his mark in 2010 with the ever-rebuilding Pirates. Tabata produced a strong .299 batting average with 29 extra-base hits (including 21 doubles) with 35 RBI and 19 stolen bases in 26 attempts. He was particularly strong at home. Tabata’s batting average at PNC Park was 75 points higher than his road mark.
I’m curious to watch his development in his sophomore season. The Pittsburgh lineup looks better on paper, and Tabata is just age 22. He has plenty of time to boost his power totals. For now, take the high batting average and activity on the basepaths.
60. Dexter Fowler, Colorado
Fowler looks to take the next step in his third full season in Colorado. He’s demonstrated good gap power, though it hasn't translated into home run production just yet (has 49 doubles with 10 home runs in two years). Fowler’s main contribution to fantasy lineups has been through the stolen-base category (with 40 in two seasons, including 27 in 2009). He was also caught stealing 18 times in those seasons.
Fowler strikes out at a high rate, but still batted .354 on balls put in play. He’s a career .259 batter.
59. Andres Torres, San Francisco
Following an extended minor-league run for multiple teams, Torres finally received regular at-bats for the Giants in 2010. He took advantage of the spacious San Francisco power alleys, and ripped 43 doubles while adding 16 home runs on the strength of his .359 BABIP. Torres also contributed 26 stolen bases in 33 attempts. Torres stole a total of 313 bases (with 413 attempts) in 12 minor league seasons. He’s an intriguing fourth outfielder for 2011.
58. Chase Headley, San Diego
Headley has become a solid contributor to the San Diego lineup, although the fantasy dominance that owners anticipated has yet to transpire. He hit 11 home runs with 58 RBI and 77 runs scored in 2010. The most interesting piece of Headley’s stat line to date is that he’s swiped 27 bases in the past two years (including 17 in 2010). Headley is a .264 batter who strikes out with regularity (more than 130 in back-to-back years). Playing in PETCO Park, the likelihood of translating his sizable doubles count (with 60 in two years) into home runs doesn’t seem likely.
57. Austin Jackson, Detroit
Jackson struck out at a high rate in his rookie season, but the former New York prospect produced solid three-category production for fantasy owners. He batted .293 with 41 RBI, 103 runs scored and 27 stolen bases. Taken further, Jackson batted a robust .433 on balls put in play.
The Tigers have changed out a number of pieces to strengthen the offense in 2011. Victor Martinez teams with Miguel Cabrera in the heart of the lineup and will give Jackson opportunities to hit.
56. Franklin Gutierrez, Seattle
Gutierrez strikes out at a high rate and offers a weak batting average, but he does produce solid power numbers with speed. In two years in Seattle, Gutierrez has averaged 41.5 extra-base hits (including 15 home runs per season) and 20.5 stolen bases.
55. Rajai Davis, Toronto
Davis emerged as a tremendous two-category contributor for fantasy owners during his Oakland tenure. He has solid gap power (55 doubles in the past two years), but his main value lies in his high stolen bases and strong batting average. Davis stole 91 bases in the past two years (including 50 in 2010) with a composite .293 batting average. He’ll start in center field for Toronto following the trade that sent Vernon Wells to Los Angeles.
54. Carlos Beltran, New York Mets
Beltran will open spring training as the starting center fielder, but he may be shifted to right field should he fail to cover adequately. Following a tepid reintroduction to the New York lineup in July and August, Beltran finally rediscovered his stroke in September (hitting .321 with five home runs and 13 RBI).
Obviously, there’s concern about his health at this stage of his career. Beltran has appeared in a total of 145 games in the past two seasons. Still, Beltran has the potential to put up solid power numbers in a revamped New York lineup. A return to a 20-home run, 80-RBI baseline is not out of the question.
53. Tyler Colvin, Chicago Cubs
Colvin produced a fantastic rookie season in Chicago. He rapped out 43 extra-base hits in 358 at-bats, including 20 home runs. He drove in 56 runs, scored 60 runs and swiped six bases. The lone hitch in his game is that Colvin strikes out at a high rate (100). However, he posted a strong .353 BABIP with great power. He’ll team well with offseason acquisition Carlos Pena.
52. Johnny Damon, Tampa Bay
The veteran outfielder seeks to rebound from his lone season in Detroit, which was an unmitigated disaster. He batted .271 with eight home runs, 51 RBI and 11 stolen bases. Damon’s home run total and RBI count marked his lowest production in those categories since 2001.
Damon joins a strong and rebuilt Tampa Bay offense (see the Manny Ramirez analysis below). I don’t anticipate a bounce-back to his 2009 power heights (with 24 home runs and 82 RBI), but he should generate decent five-category production as a late-round selection.
51. Adam Lind, Toronto
Lind’s strikeout number jumped in 2010, thereby helping to drag down his batting average a full 68 points. His power numbers also decreased in the process. Lind generated 23 fewer extra-base hits and 42 fewer RBI last season.
The potential for a huge bounce-back season in the power categories is there. Unfortunately, his free-swinging style will weigh down his batting average (he walked 38 times in 607 plate appearances). I don’t anticipate a return to his .305 batting average of 2009 (he batted .375 on balls in play), but a run back to .260-.270 is possible.
50. Angel Pagan, New York Mets
Pagan was one of few bright spots in an otherwise dismal season for the Mets. In his first full season in the major leagues, Pagan ripped 49 extra-base hits (11 home runs) with 69 RBI and a strong .290 batting average. Most importantly, Pagan attempted 46 stolen bases and finished with 37 successes.
“El Caballo Loco” hadn’t demonstrated much power in his extended run in the minor leagues. However, he did give a hint of the progress to come in 2009 when he produced 39 extra-base hits (including 22 doubles) in 343 at-bats.
49. Raul Ibanez, Philadelphia
Ibanez’s power numbers dropped precipitously in 2010, and there was rampant speculation that he’d be dealt in the offseason. He batted .243 in the first half of the season before rebounding to bat .309 after the All-Star break.
Ibanez had hit 20 or more home runs in five consecutive seasons prior to last year’s regression. He’s a .284 career batter who has driven in 83 or more runs in six consecutive seasons. Ibanez has also ripped at least 31 doubles in nine straight seasons.
48. Nick Swisher, New York Yankees
Swisher batted a career-best .288 last season for the Yankees while posting his requisite power numbers. He has hit 21 or more home runs while averaging 81.2 RBI and 86.2 runs scored in six consecutive seasons. There’s no doubting Swisher’s power production as we head into 2011. I just don’t anticipate a repeat of his high batting average. He’s a career .252 batter. Take your three-category production in the New York conga line and move on.
47. Magglio Ordonez, Detroit
Ordonez remains a solid contributor to the batting average category (hitting .303 or better in four consecutive seasons, though his batting average has dropped in three consecutive campaigns). He’s no longer a strong power producer, and his health issues are well-documented.
Ordonez has missed more than 100 games in the past two seasons, thereby sapping his power numbers. If he can shake off the checkered injury history, Ordonez will have ample RBI opportunities with Cabrera and Martinez in the heart of the lineup. I don’t expect to see Ordonez rediscover his 2007 stroke (of 28 home runs and 138 RBI), but a return to 17-20 home runs and 80-90 RBI is possible. Unfortunately, he’s a high-risk proposition.
46. Denard Span, Minnesota
Span doesn’t offer much in the power categories, but he scores runs and operates effectively on the basepaths. He’s stolen 67 bases in his three-year career, including a career-best 26 last season. Span has demonstrated a strong batting eye with nearly a 1-to-1 walk-to-strikeout ratio (180-to-223 overall). He’s still growing at the plate and could see a minor uptick in his power numbers (he hit 24 doubles last season).
I also expect Span’s batting average to rebound from last year’s downturn. Span’s batting average dropped 47 points from 2009 despite posting an improved contact rate.
45. Brett Gardner, New York Yankees
Gardner produced a strong first full season for the Yankees in 2010. He batted .277 while exhibiting a strong batting eye (with 77 walks against 101 strikeouts) and stole 47 bases in 56 attempts. Gardner also scored 97 runs with 32 extra-base hits (including 20 doubles) and 47 RBI. I anticipate strong production in three categories with a moderate increase in his home run total.
44. Manny Ramirez, Tampa Bay
The former fantasy hero reportedly signed a bargain-basement contract in Tampa. He seeks to put the power outage and accompanying rumor, conjecture and speculation of 2010 behind him. Ramirez batted a composite .298 with nine home runs, 16 doubles and 42 RBI last season.
I’m cautiously optimistic about a quasi-comeback year for Ramirez this season. I understand that the questions of PEDs are there, and that he appeared broken down and missed significant time in in 2010. There is no chance that he’s running back to his dominant totals of 37 home runs and 121 RBI from 2008. However, a healthy Ramirez can post a high batting average and hit 20-25 home runs with 80-90 RBI.
43. Ryan Ludwick, San Diego
Ludwick no longer has the luxury of batting alongside Albert Pujols and the heart of the St. Louis lineup. He struggled terribly after joining the Padres last season, batting a dismal .211 with 13 extra-base hits (including six home runs) in 209 at-bats. Taken further, he batted a nice, round .200 at PETCO Park, a full 122 points lower than his Busch Stadium output.
Ludwick projects to 15-20 home runs and 75-80 RBI in the spacious ballparks of the NL West and without the support of Gonzalez. He’s a lifetime .266 batter. That mark may be tested in his new home park.
42. Michael Cuddyer, Minnesota
Cuddyer’s stat line didn’t change markedly overall, but the tremendous pullback in his home run total cannot be ignored. The move to Target Field affected things somewhat (it ranked lowest in MLB for home runs). I believe the absence of Justin Morneau from the heart of the lineup and merely a regression to his previous career numbers is just as responsible for the drop-off.
Cuddyer produces solid gap power, having hit 22 or more doubles in six of his past seven seasons. He also hit 12 or more home runs in those six seasons. Cuddyer’s 32-home run output in 2009 was truly an outlier, as he’s only hit more than 16 home runs in two seasons. Take the shots to the gaps and solid RBI numbers with Morneau back into mix (Cuddyer has driven in at least 81 runs in four of the past five seasons).
41. Carlos Quentin, Chicago White Sox
Quentin rebounded nicely from his 2009 injury-shortened season. He batted .243 with 26 home runs and 87 RBI, his third straight season with at least 21 home runs. Quentin is a career .251 batter, so I’m not anticipating a return to his 2008 form. However, he’s a sure-fire power producer when healthy as the White Sox return to the homer-happy past. Quentin represents significant risk, as he hasn’t played more than 130 games in a season.
40. Adam Jones, Baltimore
Jones gets lost a little bit because of the logo on his cap, but he’s become a solid contributor in four categories. He’s hit 19 home runs in back-to-back seasons, while averaging 69.5 RBI, 23.5 doubles and 79.5 runs scored. Jones has also improved his batting average in back-to-back seasons, as the 25-year-old outfielder batted a career-best .284 last year.
I like the moves made in Baltimore this off-season to bolster the lineup. The team probably won’t win a ton, but they should experience a boost in run production.
39. Chris Young, Arizona
Fantasy owners remain cautious when considering Young. There are few players whose production swings as wildly as Young’s does each season. For example, Young batted a career-best .257 last season, but finished the season with a pathetic .202 mark in September.
Push his batting average off to the side for a moment. He has averaged 33 doubles, 24 home runs, 71.5 RBI and 20 stolen bases in his four major league seasons. Young is going to strike out a ton. There’s no question about that. Young batted .342 on balls put in play, some 16 points higher than his four-year average. At age 27, Young is hitting his power prime in a fantastic home yard.
38. Jason Kubel, Minnesota
Kubel has established himself as a solid power producer in Minnesota. As you’d expect given the way Target Field played, Kubel’s power numbers did dip in 2010. However, he logged his third consecutive 20-home run season and drove in 92 runs (had 78 and 103 in the previous two seasons). Justin Morneau returns from injury, and Jim Thome is back in the mix as well. Both of those guys know how to get on base, and that’ll give Kubel RBI opportunities.
37. Jason Bay, New York Mets
Bay struggled to a dismal .259 batting average with six home runs and 47 RBI in his 95-game introduction to New York. Bay was ultimately shut down in late July because of a concussion. He did produce 32 extra-base hits in his 348 at-bats (including 20 doubles) and batted .350 on balls put in play.
The notoriously streaky Bay never had that monster run last season. He’s a tremendous buy-low candidate. Bay had averaged 30.2 home runs and 99.3 RBI in his previous six seasons. He may not rise to the heights of his 2009 brilliance in Boston, but a return to 20-25 home runs and 90-100 RBI doesn’t seem out of reach. I’ll be curious to watch his power production at Citi Field over a full season.
36. Carlos Lee, Houston
Lee hasn’t run in years, but he remains a potent power hitter. He struggled markedly at the plate early in the 2010 season and took a brutal .206 batting average into June. Lee’s a career .287 hitter, so I anticipate that he gets back on track.
Take the power numbers. Lee has generated at least 24 home runs and 80 RBI in 11 consecutive seasons. The Houston lineup may not entice you, but Lee will still put up numbers in Minute Maid Park.
35. Juan Pierre, Chicago White Sox
Pierre was one of the prime beneficiaries in the directional shift to “small ball” in Chicago last season. He stole a career-high 68 bases in 86 attempts while batting .275. Pierre is a three-category performer when healthy. He’s stolen at least 24 bases in 10 consecutive seasons with a fantastic .298 batting average (his .275 batting average in 2010 established a new career low). Pierre will set the table ahead of the reconstructed power-laden White Sox lineup.
34. Michael Bourn, Houston
I don’t know how much I need to sell you. Bourn steals bases, scores run and has improved at the plate to offer a solid batting average.
In the past two seasons, he’s batted a composite .276 while averaging 90.5 runs scored and 56.5 stolen bases. Bourn stole 41 bases upon arriving in Houston in 2008.
33. Shane Victorino, Philadelphia
Victorino produced new career marks in the power categories (hit 18 home runs and 69 RBI) while stealing 34 bases. His RBI total has increased in three consecutive seasons. Victorino did give up 23 points in terms of batting average, and his strikeout rate rose. He possesses a solid .279 lifetime batting average and has stolen at least 25 bases in four consecutive seasons.
32. Mike Stanton, Florida
As expected, the 21-year-old slugger (was age 20 during last season) brought huge power numbers to Florida. He slugged 44 extra-base hits (including 22 home runs) with 59 RBI in his 359 at-bats. Stanton struck out a ton (123), but batted .394 on balls put in play.
The number to circle in his splits is obvious. Stanton batted .182 at home with one-third of his home run total (seven). Go back and read the first few words of this blurb. Stanton was age 20 in his rookie season. Big numbers lay ahead.
31. Drew Stubbs, Cincinnati
Following a strong 42-game introduction to the Reds in 2009, Stubbs positively dominated opposing pitchers in his first full season. He batted only .255 (.379 BABIP), but contributed tremendous numbers to the other four standard categories (had 22 home runs, 77 RBI and 30 stolen bases with 91 runs scored). He struck out in one-third of his at-bats, but crushed the ball as part of the league’s fourth-highest scoring lineup (ranked first in the NL). At age 26, this 6-foot-4 slugger is just getting started.
30. Bobby Abreu, Los Angeles Angels
Abreu batted .255 last season, the lowest mark in his 14 full major league seasons. He still produced strong numbers in the other four standard categories. Abreu hit 20 home runs with 78 RBI, 88 runs scored and 24 stolen bases in a difficult season for the Angels.
Los Angeles brought in support in trading for Wells, and Kendry Morales returns from the freak injury that ended his 2010 season. As such, there’s optimism that he’ll see better support in the lineup. He can boost his batting average in line with his .296 career mark, along with his normal power and speed contributions.
29. Corey Hart, Milwaukee
Hart hasn’t matched the speed numbers of his introduction to everyday play in Milwaukee. He stole 23 bases in back to-back seasons prior to his injury-shortened 2009 campaign. Hart’s still posted fantastic power numbers in the past two years, but his speed numbers are down.
In his four years as a regular player in Milwaukee, Hart has averaged 21.8 home runs, 80.5 RBI (with 102 in 2010) and 79.3 runs scored. Hart owns a .275 career batting average. There’s potential for Hart to improve his stolen bases, but his power numbers are guaranteed alongside Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun.
28. Delmon Young, Minnesota
The former first overall pick broke through in a big way in 2010. Young posted new career marks in home runs (21), doubles (46), RBI (112) and batting average (.298), which helped to offset the absence of Justin Morneau.
The batting average was in line with his career .292 mark. But the power numbers represented a huge leap for Young, who had not hit more than 13 home runs in his previous three major league seasons. Young doesn’t walk at all, but that hasn’t derailed his productivity. Young will have myriad RBI opportunities with on-base leaders Joe Mauer and Morneau setting the table.
27. Nick Markakis, Baltimore
Markakis’ home run total dropped for the second straight year. He still ripped 45 doubles (producing his fourth straight season with at least 43 doubles), but his RBI total dropped by 41 percent). Markakis had little protection in the lineup.
Markakis is a career .298 batter, so you’ll most definitely receive solid production in that category. His power numbers will likely be aided by the additions of Derrek Lee and Mark Reynolds.
26. Alfonso Soriano, Chicago Cubs
The mention of Soriano’s name no longer prompts thoughts of fantasy dominance. It now prompts discussions of long-term contracts and fading numbers.
Soriano shook off two injury-shortened seasons to participate in 147 games for the Cubs in 2010. He batted .258 with 24 home runs and 79 RBI. You’ll have to take the power numbers and .260-.270 batting average. Soriano doesn’t run anymore. As such, he’s dropped precipitously in the outfield rankings.
25. Torii Hunter, Los Angeles Angels
Hunter quietly posted another strong season in what was a highly disappointing season for the Angels in 2010. He batted .281 with 23 home runs and 90 RBI, his ninth season with at least 21 home runs and seventh with at least 90 RBI in the past 10 years.
The only question about his game is whether Hunter will run more than he did in 2010. Hunter stole fewer than 18 bases (with nine) for the first time since 2003. That question is enough to push Hunter down the ranking sheet somewhat, but he’s still a solid overall contributor.
24. Vernon Wells, Los Angeles Angels
Following a disappointing 2009 season in which Wells hit only 15 home runs, he rebounded with a fantastic 31-home run, 88-RBI campaign. It proved to be the final season of his 12-year run in Toronto.
He hit 20 or more home runs in seven of his past nine seasons. Wells averaged 88.8 RBI during this nine-year period. He’ll have the support of Morales and Hunter, and an aggressive approach to best those numbers this year.
23. Jay Bruce, Cincinnati
Bruce had demonstrated fantastic power in two partial seasons with the Reds before settling in as an everyday outfielder in 2010. He hit three more home runs with 12 additional RBI in 164 more at-bats than he did in 2009. While his power numbers didn’t change markedly, Bruce did boost his batting average by 58 points. Bruce batted .383 on balls put in play. I would expect his batting average to regress toward his .257 career mark with stellar power numbers.
22. Grady Sizemore, Cleveland
Sizemore appeared in 33 games before being lost for the season because of a knee injury and underwent microfracture surgery. The team is optimistic that Sizemore will be ready to participate in the latter part of spring training or early in the regular season.
Sizemore was a five-category hero for fantasy owners from 2005-09 (he played in 106 games in 2009). His selection in drafts this spring is obviously fraught with risk, as this was no minor injury that he experienced. If fully recovered, Sizemore may prove a bargain and validate your faith. I don’t suspect that he runs as frequently out of the gate, so that certainly impacts his ceiling.
21. Colby Rasmus, St. Louis
Rasmus produced a fantastic rookie season in St. Louis during 2009 and produced solid numbers across four categories. He became a five-tool threat in his sophomore season, boosting his home run total to 23 with 28 doubles, 66 RBI, 12 stolen bases and an improved batting average (.276).
Rasmus improved his batting average by 25 points despite striking out 148 times. He batted .405 on balls put into play. Look for continued dominance in the heart of the order alongside Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday.
20. B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay
Upton’s batting average fell for the third consecutive year, and he established a new career-low at .237. Still, he hit 18 home runs with 38 RBI and stole 42 bases, his third consecutive season with 40 steals.
Upton’s on-base percentage has been dismal for the past two seasons (with .313 and .322), and his strikeout rate is somewhat off-putting. He’s now established a career .260 batting average, and I don’t anticipate that you’ll see much of a change there. Upton generates good power, scores runs and steals bases.
19. Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston
Ellsbury was limited to only 18 games because of a recurring rib injury in 2010. He is on track to be ready for the start of the season and, barring a setback, there’s no reason to believe that he can’t push back to a level between his 2008 and 2009 seasons. Ellsbury batted .291 while averaging 60.5 stolen bases over that two-year period. He’ll bat as part of a loaded lineup, and I expect tremendous three-category production.
18. Curtis Granderson, New York Yankees
Granderson was placed on the disabled list early in the 2010 season with a groin injury. As such, his introduction to New York wasn’t quite the victory that many expected. Granderson still hit 24 home runs with 67 RBI, but he stole only 12 bases with a .247 batting average.
It was his fifth straight season with at least 19 home runs and 66 RBI, though his batting average and stolen base totals have fluctuated. If fully healthy, I anticipate a moderate bounce-back in his stolen base total between 15 and 20, and a small push in his batting average back to his .260 (he’s batted .249 and .247 in the past two seasons).
You do know this. Granderson will score runs and put forth big power numbers in the vaunted New York lineup.
17. Hunter Pence, Houston
Pence was hit-or-miss through the first three months of the 2010 season. He struggled to a weak .232 batting average in April, rebounded nicely in May to bat .302 and then plummeted back to a .240 June mark. Take the numbers as a whole, and he entered July with a pedestrian .260 batting average.
The light came on July 1, and Pence batted .301 with 14 home runs and 54 RBI through the end of the season. In the end, a stat line of .282 with 25 home runs, 29 doubles, 91 RBI, 93 runs and 18 stolen bases aided patient fantasy owners. His 18 stolen bases, 91 RBI and 93 runs established new career highs.
16. Jose Bautista, Toronto
Bautista experienced a completely unexpected breakthrough season in 2010. We can point to his strong close to 2009, when he hit 10 home runs in his final 109 at-bats, as some type of advance warning. We’d be grasping at straws.
Bautista had spent six years in the major leagues prior to his 54-home run, 124-RBI effort in 2010. He’d never hit more than 16 home runs in a season and had never driven in more than 63 runs.
I don’t anticipate that Bautista disappears as quickly as he came onto the scene. However, he does represent a very difficult proposition for fantasy owners. I’ll put him on the board for 25-30 home runs and 85 RBI with a batting average near .250 (.244 lifetime batting average).
15. Alex Rios, Chicago White Sox
Fantasy owners were frightened off by Rios’ tepid 41-game introduction to Chicago in 2009. As such, he reached bargain status and bounced back with a tremendous five-tool season. Rios batted .284 with 21 home runs, 88 RBI, 89 runs scored, and established a new career high with 34 stolen bases.
He hasn’t hit the “superstar” status that we anticipated a decade ago, but Rios has been consistent. He’s batted. .281 in his career, and has logged at least 15 home runs and 15 stolen bases in five consecutive seasons. The White Sox have reloaded the lineup to take advantage of U.S. Cellular Field, thereby putting Rios in position to see more pitches to hit.
14. Jayson Werth, Washington
Fantasy owners are asking themselves a simple question. Will Werth be able to maintain his fantastic power production now that he’s left for Washington? He averaged 29 home runs, 83.7 RBI while stealing a total of 53 bases in his final three seasons in Philadelphia.
He’s one of several veterans brought in to support the youthful Washington lineup and centerpiece Ryan Zimmerman. Werth will have his opportunities to pick up Zimmerman, but I’m moderately concerned about the protection behind him. Still, I don’t anticipate much of a dropoff in power despite the ballpark shift. I do anticipate that his batting average regresses toward his career mark, as more balls are lost in the gaps.
13. Jason Heyward, Atlanta
Heyward didn’t look much like a 21-year-old hitter in his rookie season. Yes, he struck out 128 times and struggled during the middle of the season because of a thumb injury that ultimately landed him on the disabled list. Heyward also drew 98 walks.
Heyward batted .277 overall with 52 extra-base hits (including 18 home runs), 72 RBI and 11 stolen bases (with 17 attempts). He batted .302 with seven home runs and 27 RBI after returning from the injury. What’s the ceiling for this 6-foot-4 behemoth?
12. Andre Ethier, Los Angeles Dodgers
Unfortunately, you don’t get any bonus points for home runs hit in “clutch” situations. You’ll have to make do with the solid totals.
Ethier hit 23 home runs with 82 RBI in 139 games for the struggling Dodgers in 2010. The sixth-year veteran has averaged 19.6 home runs, 33 doubles and 76.8 RBI with a strong .291 batting average during his tenure in Los Angeles. The lineup will bounce back around him, and I suspect his RBI total rises.
11. Justin Upton, Arizona
Upton has established himself as a five-category performer for fantasy owners in the past two seasons. He demonstrated power in 2008, but he didn’t run. That changed in 2009, and he hasn’t stopped. In the past two years, Upton has averaged 21.5 home runs, 77.5 RBI, 19 stolen bases with a composite .287 batting average. He does strike out a ton (with 289 in those seasons), but batted .400 on balls put in play. Take the big numbers across the board and celebrate him, as the 23 year old matures in a great ballpark.
10. Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh
McCutchen gave Pirates something to cheer about in 2010. He matched his rookie batting average of .286, while increasing his home run and doubles totals (with 16 and 35, respectively). McCutchen also improved his contact rate and batted .339 on balls put in play. Oh, he also stole 33 bases.
9. Nelson Cruz, Texas
Fantasy owners anticipated a monster follow-up to Cruz’s breakthrough 2009 season. They celebrated some great numbers, but injuries limited Cruz to just 108 games. Cruz hit 22 home runs with 31 doubles, 78 RBI and 17 stolen bases while batting .318. He reduced his strikeout rate and batted .399 on balls put in play.
The nagging injuries that sent him to the disabled list multiple times will probably weigh on the minds of some owners in your league. Cruz will respond with big numbers for those stretches when he and Josh Hamilton are in the lineup.
8. Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle
Suzuki scored a career-low 74 runs last season as part of the 2010 season that was an absolute disaster in Seattle. He still batted .315 and swiped 42 bases. Suzuki has never stolen fewer than 26 bases nor batted lower than .303.
It can’t be as bad in Seattle during the 2011, can it? Suzuki’s power numbers are obviously a non-issue. He’ll rap some doubles into gap, but he’s essentially a three-category producer.
7. Matt Holliday, St. Louis
Holliday has established himself as one of the most consistent outfielders of the past half-dozen years. He’s averaged 27.7 home runs, 40.2 doubles, 106.3 RBI and 100.5 runs scored during this six-year run. Holliday’s stolen base total has fluctuated, but he owns a .317 career batting average.
6. Shin-Soo Choo, Cleveland
Choo has established himself as a five-category contributor to fantasy lineups in back-to-back seasons. His numbers in 2010 almost evenly matched his 2009 efforts. Choo has averaged 21 home runs, 88 RBI, 84 runs scored and 21.5 stolen bases with a .300 batting average.
There was some concern about the need to fulfill a military commitment in South Korea, but Choo was exempted from serving. He’ll be back to produce big numbers in a retooled Cleveland lineup that welcomes back Sizemore from injury.
5. Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers
I’ll stay away from the tabloid stuff for the purpose of this peace. Everyone else can jump onboard the Rihanna and McCourt stuff.
I’ll look to the field, where Kemp and the Dodgers struggled mightily in 2010. He actually hit 28 home runs, two more than his 2009 total, with 89 RBI and stole 19 bases (he was caught stealing 15 times). Unfortunately, Kemp’s batting average dropped 48 points, and his strikeout rate soared. Get him a little cheaper this spring.
4. Carl Crawford, Boston
Boston fans celebrated the arrival of a longtime rival this offseason. He’ll team with Gonzalez to try and recreate the glory of the Manny/Papi days.
Crawford established new career highs in several standard fantasy categories (with 19 home runs, 90 RBI and 110 runs scored) during his final year with the Rays. He’s a career .296 batter who has averaged 50 stolen bases in his nine full major league seasons.
3. Josh Hamilton, Texas
Hamilton returned from an injury-shortened season to capture the 2010 American League MVP Award. He batted .359 with 32 home runs, 40 doubles and 100 RBI to lead the Rangers’ charge to the World Series.
Obviously, Hamilton’s injury history and recent illness come into play, as you contemplate your risk-reward matrix. He’s played in 133 games or fewer in three of the past four seasons. When at the plate, few can match his power production, and the Texas lineup is positively loaded for another run.
2. Ryan Braun, Milwaukee
Braun set the fantasy world on fire in his 2007 rookie season. He’s never looked back, and has become one of the game’s most dominant and consistent power options. Braun has averaged 32 home runs, 105 RBI and 99.3 runs scored while registering a .307 career batting average.
Braun and Prince Fielder are reunited for at least one more season with Hart and Casey McGehee helping to keep the line moving.
1. Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado
Owners were salivating over the potential demonstrated by Gonzalez in his 89-game introduction to Colorado in 2009. He batted a solid .284, but smashed 34 extra-base hits (including 13 home runs) with 16 stolen bases in 278 at-bats. Gonzalez’s follow-up was one of the top stories of the 2010 season.
He produced ridiculous power numbers (with 34 home runs, 34 doubles and 117 RBI), while staying active on the basepaths (had 26 stolen bases in 34 attempts) and boosting his batting average. Yes, he struck out 135 times and walked only 40 times. Gonzalez batted a ridiculous .435 on balls put into play (has a.396 BABIP in 1,167 career at-bats). He got paid this off-season, and he and Troy Tulowitzki will anchor this lineup for years to come.
