Pros, cons Lions face with Suh's salary-cap dilemma
In a salary-cap world, greed leads to competitive suicide. The more money one player takes, the less there is available to put talent around him.
This is the quandary facing Ndamukong Suh and the Detroit Lions these days.
Starting Monday, the Lions can place a franchise or transition tag on Suh, their 6-foot-4, 305-pound star defensive tackle.
Using the franchise would keep Suh off of the free-agent market for another year, but it would come with a hefty $26.9 million additional cap hit for 2015. The transition tag would allow Suh to sign with another team but the Lions would then have the right to match the offer and keep him.
The deadline for using either of these tags is March 2. Other teams can begin negotiating with free agents March 7 and start signing three days later.
So, sometime in the next four weeks this quintessential salary-cap dilemma should be resolved.
It's been 12 days since Lions president Tom Lewand told the Detroit NBC television affiliate that there was a "very, very good chance that we get something done with him in the next few weeks."
That led to optimism about Suh returning, which was interesting timing because season-ticket holders were informed a couple days later of a price hike.
Was Lewand so seemingly confident because he really believed the Lions were close to a long-term deal with Suh?
Or was it because they intend to put the franchise tag on him if there's no agreement in place by early March?
The latter seems more likely. It's hard to imagine that Suh would have gotten all the way to this point, after taking the risk of playing last season without a long-term deal, and then not at least test the free-agent market if he's allowed to get that far.
Suh, 28, is expected to demand a contract in the range of what defensive lineman J.J. Watt, arguably the best player in the game, received from the Houston Texans. Watt signed for six years and $100 million, including nearly $52 million guaranteed, without hitting the open market.
Suh, who is so durable he's never missed a game because of injury in his five-year career, likely wants even more than Watt, and he could get it.
The Lions are in an extremely difficult spot, which is why this issue has been debated back and forth so much in recent years. They already have two mammoth contracts on their payroll -- receiver Calvin Johnson and quarterback Matthew Stafford -- but if they let Suh leave, everything they did to become the league's No. 2-ranked defense could be wiped out.
In reality, the Lions probably won't be a playoff team again next season without the three-time, first-team All-Pro wreaking havoc in the middle of their defensive line. That's the type of impact Suh has on a game because he makes everyone around him better when opponents are so focused on him.
On the field, the decision is obvious. Bring back Suh.
Financially, it's not so clear-cut.
If the Lions put the franchise tag on him, Suh's total cap hit for 2015 will be nearly $37 million, including $9.7 million in so-called "dead money" that automatically has been carried over because of restructures on his previous contract.
That means that Suh, Johnson ($20.5 million) and Stafford ($17.7 million) would combine for about $75 million of the team's salary cap, which is projected to be around $140 million total next season.
In other words, more than half.
You can argue that it's completely moronic to even consider committing that much for just three players in a sport that requires quality depth because of the inevitable injury factor.
This is clearly not how recent Super Bowl champions have been built. The top three cap hits for the New England Patriots in 2014 -- quarterback Tom Brady ($14.8 million), defensive tackle Vince Wilfork (7.5) and linebacker Jerod Mayo (7.2) -- combined for less than $30 million.
The same is true for the NFC's top two teams. The three-highest cap hits for the Seattle Seahawks were a combined $29 million, while the top three for the Green Bay Packers were $38 million.
If the Lions are able to sign Suh long-term, they're likely facing annual cap hits for their top trio of around $65 million.
Restructuring the contracts of Johnson and/or Stafford could create some immediate cap relief, but the Lions eventually would have to pay the price down the road.
"We've lived in that environment," Lewand said during his TV interview of taking on three huge salaries. "There's no reason we can't continue to live in that environment."
What that means, however, is that the Lions' front office simply can't make many, if any, mistakes in player evaluations and the team has to have extremely good fortune when it comes to injuries.
Living in "that environment" worked fine this past season when they won 11 games and went to the playoffs, but that wasn't the case in 2012 and 2013 when the Lions had a combined record of 11-21.
Former NFL general manager Bill Polian, who will be enshrined this summer into the Pro Football Hall of Fame, is on record saying that he would franchise Suh if that's what it takes to keep him.
The problem with that scenario is the Lions probably won't be able to make any significant roster improvements this offseason, other than through the draft, and could have to dump some other contracts, perhaps running back Reggie Bush, linebacker Stephen Tulloch and/or defensive lineman Jason Jones.
On the other hand, if they let Suh go, they'll at least have a lot more money to address that vacancy, as monumental as it might be, along with some other areas of need, including an offensive line that's become the team's weak link.
Short term, the Lions would take a step back, possibly even a big one. Long term, it might be for the best if they use the money wisely and improve some other positions to balance out their lineup.
There's simply no perfect outcome in this case. You're darned if you do, darned if you don't.
That's what happens when the American way clashes with the realities of a salary cap.