Sports fans are pretty familiar with the use of numbers in baseball.
If you weren't before "Money Ball" — the book and the movie — then you are now. You realize the significance that the proper interpretation of numbers can bring to a sport.
But up until relatively recently, all anybody in the NBA had was the box score that any fan can see in a local newspaper. Those numbers, along with a good pair of educated eyes, supposedly told you all you needed to know about players and teams.
But all that has changed. Every general manager in the NBA now uses some form of analytics to evaluate both a player's and a team's performance, constantly evaluating players for the draft or for a potential trade. I am a big proponent of applying analytics to basketball from my days with the Dallas Mavericks, one of the earliest advocates of statistical analysis.
But basketball is a little bit more complicated than baseball as the game is in continuous motion and more factors affect the numbers. The basic numbers like shooting percentage, scoring and rebounding still have meaning, but don't address the full picture or capture the subtleties of the game that went undiscovered before.
Those basic numbers, when put in proper perspective and taken into account with terms like pace and usage, become much more relevant. Evaluating total team performance not only relies on the old-school talent evaluator's eyes and experience but also an assortment of advanced metrics that are getting ever more complicated.
There is no perfect formula and analytics does not take the place of years of experience — nor is it meant to. But it is a very valuable tool and continually evolving.
What I will attempt to do here is introduce some of the basic terms and concepts that today's NBA front offices utilize in making decisions about the draft, trades and even what offenses to run.
Pace
Pace has a way of putting all box score statistics into context. It measures the speed at which a team plays. Pace is defined as the number of possessions a team uses during a game. Most teams use around 95. The Denver Nuggets and Sacramento Kings averaged around 97 possessions last season. The Orlando Magic and New Orleans Hornets used around 91.
Understanding pace is important. When evaluating a possible trade, general managers realize that a player scoring a lot for a fast-paced team probably won't put up the same numbers on a slower team. Fewer possessions means fewer scoring opportunities. So what's the fairest way to compare players and teams that play at different speeds?
Efficiency
Offensive and defensive efficiency are used to calculate how effective teams are on both ends of the court regardless of the pace of play. Offensive efficiency is calculated by figuring out the number of points a team scores per 100 possessions. Likewise, defensive efficiency is calculated by figuring out the number of points a team allows per 100 possessions.
That removes the variable of pace of play and allows us to compare fast teams to slow teams and determine which are truly effective. When I played for the Nuggets in the 1980s, we consistently led the league in scoring. Most people would say that we had a great offense and they would be correct. But the Boston Celtics, who played at a slower pace and scored fewer points than we did, may have been the more efficient offensive team at the time.
True shooting percentage
The shooting percentage that is seen in the boxscore does not take into account the difference between two-pointers and three-pointers and also doesn't factor in free throws. Given that three-pointers count 50 percent more than shots around the basket, perimeter shooters can be more effective scorers than big men even when shooting at a lower clip. When you factor in a player's free-throw percentage and the rate at which he gets to the charity stripe, the picture becomes even more defined.
Last season, as usual, big men had the highest conventional shooting percentages, led by New York Knicks center Tyson Chandler at 67.9. Chandler also led the league in true shooting percentage at 69.5, but Oklahoma City Thunder guard James Harden was second, while guards Steve Nash and Ray Allen, and forwards Kevin Durant, LeBron James and Ryan Anderson also cracked the top 10.
True shooting percentage offers a more accurate assessment of a player's scoring ability. It also lets a coach know who is more efficient with the ball, which leads us to…
Usage
Usage rate measures the percentage of possessions a player is used on offense during his time on the court, taking into account field-goal attempts, free throws, assists and turnovers. Typically, the league's best players have the highest usage rate. Guys like LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Carmelo Anthony, Kevin Durant and Kobe Bryant usually have a usage rate of 30 percent or more, meaning they're the ones who are making things happen on many of their team's offensive possessions.
There is a theory that at some point you get diminishing returns by having the ball in your star's hands too much. Bryant, who led the league with a 33.0 usage rate last season, has come under fire for taking too many shots and controlling the ball too often. But you have to look at who he's playing with and the importance of the game or time of the game. Kobe is one of those special players who can rise above everybody else and take over a game. He has proven it time and again. So if you are coach of the Lakers, especially at crunch time, wouldn't you want the ball in his hands and him taking the shot?
Plus/minus
Plus/minus is a statistic that comes from hockey. It has been used for years to quantify the impact of an individual hockey player on the goals scored for and against his team when he's in the game. In basketball, it is used basically the same way. Like most statistics, it is a good barometer when used in the right way. There are many things that affect a plus/minus number, like the players that any individual player may play with or against and the time of the game.
The key to making plus/minus impactful is sample size. Over time, a player will play with lots of different lineups and against lots of different players at different times of the game. Not surprisingly, LeBron James had the highest plus/minus in the league last season at plus-474. But plus/minus also highlights certain players who impact the game in a very positive way although it rarely shows up in the boxscore. Players like Bruce Bowen when he played for the San Antonio Spurs, Kurt Rambis with the Lakers or today in Shane Battier for the Miami Heat. They do so many good things that their team consistently outscores the other team when they are on the court.
There are a myriad of ways through analytics to dissect the game of basketball. The formulas are getting better and better and when used properly can provide an extraordinary window into how good a player, team or any of their components truly are.
Most importantly, analytics helps us figure out what really wins and loses basketball games.
