The Carolina Hurricanes (8-13-3) have a lot of work left to do if they want to make the playoffs after finishing October winless, but seasons aren't made off of one bad month, or even in one good one.
The Hurricanes have learned that over the last five seasons -- each have ended just short of the playoffs, as they've had hot months with winning records followed up by missed opportunities, or vice versa as the hot months aren't enough to make up ground.
So this December for the Hurricanes looms large, particularly as they're on Game 3 of a five-game homestand and will play just three of their final 10 games this month at PNC Arena.
First-year head coach Bill Peters has talked about making a lot of changes to the ways this team had been trending over the last four to five years, but one of the biggest was making this team tough to play against in general, and especially at home.
Even as the Hurricanes missed the playoffs in the three seasons from 2009-12, they were still markedly better at home (a combined 63-45-15) than on the road (45-56-22). But in the last two seasons, they've finished 27-31-7 at home compared to 28-29-8. So really, about the same anywhere they play, which shouldn't be the case.
Under Peters so far, there is a bit of a disparity -- the Hurricanes are 5-4-1 on home ice compared to 3-9-2 on the road, picking up at least a point in six of 10 home games compared to five of 14 road games. And a homestand helped the Hurricanes have a hot start to November, too -- five of their first six games were on home ice, and they were 4-0 in those games and 1-0-1 in the two road contests.
All told, six of Carolina's first nine games of the month were at home in November. Yet once the points streak snapped in a home loss to Winnipeg on Nov. 13, the Canes began a bit of a slide again, losing eight of their final 10 games in November.
On Nov. 10, the Hurricanes were 4-1-1 at home. They lost three in a row before snapping the streak against the Predators on Tuesday night, and it was much-needed. But that means they're at 5-4-1 at home at 3-9-2 on the road, an improvement in the "tough to play against at home" factor that Peters is looking for.
While the Hurricanes had begun to slide a bit in late November, they were losing close games. There's a fine line between winning and losing in the NHL, something Peters knows all too well.
"I think we've played six one-goal games in a row against some pretty good teams," Peters said. "So you're looking for a play here or there that makes a difference."
Sometimes, all this group needs is a little confidence, some validation that the hockey gods aren't vindictive.
"We're playing some really good hockey teams. Pittsburgh is one of the top teams, Nashville is one of the top teams and not only are we hanging with them, but we've had a real chance to win hockey games," goalie Cam Ward said. "So it's a confidence-booster. You realize that you've always got to play like that. It's a consistency thing."
Consistency, of course, has been the issue with this team in recent years. And that's been arguably the most maddening part for fans. Since 2010, the team has had just two streaks longer than the six-game point streak the Hurricanes had this year, and arguably with a weaker overall roster than those teams had.
This is a young team, and one that is going to be prone to its ups and downs. But they can't afford anymore if they want to break the playoff drought.
This year's group is 1-0 in December so far, though, and as past years have shown, that might be crucial.
In spite of all the Hurricanes' woes over the last few years, they had not had a winless October since the playoff drought began -- until this year (0-6-2). That put them in a huge hole. A six-game point streak brought them back out of it a bit, or at least with some room to breathe. The seven overall wins that the Canes notched in November were their most in a November since the playoff drought began.
But this November still ended with the Hurricanes at 7-7-1 for the month after their six-game point streak ended abruptly with losses in seven of their next nine. That part no doubt looked familiar to Hurricanes' fans, who have long seen this team go on mini-point streaks or even win streaks, only to fail to capitalize.
Last year's group had three different five-game point streaks (one of which was a five-game win streak), but would inevitably lose three in a row or three of four after that. And they went 2-3-1 in December at home, getting points in just three of six home games compared to six of eight on the road. A January streak very well might have been a lot more meaningful if they'd seized some of those opportunities on home ice.
That's been a real culprit the last five years -- slow starts. The Hurricanes' combined record in October-November (save the strike-shortened season in 2012-13) was 33-53-17. From January-March (again, excluding 2012-13), it was 89-61-22. So their winning percentage went up from .320 in October-November to .517 in January-April. In fact, last year's 21-19-2 (January-March) was the Canes' coldest end of the season in awhile.
But that pesky December lies as the break-even point -- or not. Do better in December, and at least give yourself a shot of making the playoffs. Flounder, or continue losing, and the streaks in the second half of the season become all but moot.
And that's been the issue. The Hurricanes are 22-32-9 in December, increasing their winning percentage just barely from October-November but rarely generating anything resembling momentum.
The missed opportunities have generally come at home, too. Last year, the Hurricanes were 5-5-4 in December but just 2-3-1 at home. Win even two of those four non-wins and maybe that 10-4 record in January becomes more meaningful. The only year the Hurricanes have had a December above .500 was in 2010-11, when they went 7-4-1 that month (after starting the year 10-11-3), but went 5-2-1 on the road and could muster just 2-2 at home.
December, then, has been the swing month, so to speak. And if this year's group wants a shot at the playoffs, they're going to have to make it one.
That 2-1 win over a very good Nashville team was an excellent place to start. But it continues with the Capitals, Red Wings and Devils, all at home, in the next three games. Get some positive momentum going and inch closer to .500 while maybe stealing a game or two n the road before Christmas, or maybe even a few points? That will put the Hurricanes back in business as they continue to await the return of Jordan Staal, who's out of his walking boot but still has a ways to go.
But fail to capitalize on that and find themselves hovering around .500 or slightly below, essentially in no man's land -- not a great draft pick on the horizon, but no playoff berth.
Right now, though, the Canes will just settle for 1-0 and go from there while also understanding the importance of what lies ahead.
"It's important. I think we've talked about it before, being solid at home, being tough to play against at home," forward Jeff Skinner said. "The beginning of this month is a good opportunity for us to sort of establish that and build off that. This is a good first step and we've got to try and keep building from there."
