It’s only been a week, but we already have some data that will help you with your fantasy matchups, so why don’t we take our new Position vs. Fantasy Defensive Points Allowed research tool for a test drive? The numbers will mean more as the season plays out and will allow me to make firm recommendations. For this week, use them as a smaller part of your decision-making process.
Note: The points referenced below are from FOXSports.com standard leagues.
Quarterbacks
Stay away: Matt Ryan, Falcons (vs. Eagles)
The Eagles’ defense held Sam Bradford (and A.J. Feeley) to just 7.9 fantasy points in Week 1, which was second-lowest in the league. The Rams’ duo completed just 18 of 35 passes for 209 yards without a touchdown. They didn’t throw any interceptions, but their yards-per-attempt average of just under 6.0 hints that the Eagles’ free-agent acquisition of CB Nnamdi Asomugha is paying off already. Also, the Falcons like to run, and if the Eagle D seems vulnerable anywhere, it’s on the line. Ryan and the Falcons might win this game, but that probably won’t be due to an aerial assault.
Also:
• The Titans allowed just 6.0 fantasy points to Jacksonville’s Luke McCown in Week 1. Yes, it was Luke McCown, but the Titans also allowed 153 rushing yards against the Jags. Those factors point to another big day for Ravens RB Ray Rice, and a ho-hum afternoon from QB Joe Flacco. Flacco is one of those QBs that you start sometimes and sit sometimes. This one is a sit.
• The Broncos held Oakland’s Jason Campbell to 105 passing yards in Week 1, partly due to the fact that the Raiders ran at will and didn’t need to throw a lot. This week, the Raiders play the Bills, who gave up just 9.2 fantasy points (sixth-best in the league) against the Chiefs. Don’t get any ideas about spot-starting Campbell.
• The Ravens had a solid fantasy day against Ben Roethlisberger on Sunday, allowing 8.1 points (third-best in the league). Roethlisberger threw for 280 yards, but also got picked off three times and fumbled twice, and posted most of his yards after halftime in the Steelers’ blowout loss. The Ravens are nasty, and you can expect them to give Tennessee’s Matt Hasselbeck as difficult a time as they gave Roethlisberger.
Play, play, play: Rex Grossman, Redskins (vs. Cardinals)
Grossman threw for 305 yards and two touchdowns against the Giants in Week 1, while the Cardinals got torched for 422 yards and two touchdowns by Panthers’ rookie QB Cam Newton. The Cardinals’ pass defense probably isn’t as bad as it looked last week, but that sorry performance almost requires you to bet against them. If your other fantasy QB has a tough matchup this week, start Grossman. Yes, really.
Also:
• Detroit’s Matthew Stafford gets a home start against the Chiefs, who gave up 32.6 fantasy points – including four touchdowns – to Buffalo’s Ryan Fitzpatrick. Get on the Stafford bandwagon now! I’m driving!
• The Giants gave up 22.2 fantasy points to Grossman in Week 1. That outing prompted my dad – a 60-year Giants fan – to proclaim their starting cornerback duo as the worst in team history. Sam Bradford and the Rams visit the G-Men on Monday night, and Bradford could be in line for a solid passing effort.
Running Backs
Stay away: Tim Hightower, Redskins (vs. Cardinals)
“But Hightower was a workhorse last week,” you’re thinking to yourself. “There’s no way I can bench him!” Hightower averaged fewer than three yards per carry against the Giants. He has a revenge game this week against his old team, which may have looked bad against the pass in Week 1, but was solid against the run, giving up 8.0 fantasy points (19 carries, 56 yards). I don’t trust Hightower, especially this week.
Also:
• Felix Jones and the Cowboys travel to the Bay Area to battle the 49ers. Jones is a solid fantasy back, but the Niners gave up just 6.7 fantasy points to the Seahawks’ RBs last week, holding them to 38 yards on the ground. Jones’ overall fantasy production against the Jets was good, but he ran for just 44 yards on 17 carries. He doesn’t figure to have a lot of room to run in San Francisco.
• Shonn Greene gets to run against a swarming Jags’ D that held Chris Johnson to eight fantasy points in Week 1. Greene didn’t run very well against the Cowboys, and could be in for another tough day on the ground.
Play, play, play: LeGarrette Blount, Buccaneers (at Vikings)
Blount carried the ball five times for 15 yards against the Lions, and complained after the games that he needs to get the ball more often. We agree with you, LeGarrette! This week, Blount and the Bucs travel to meet the Vikings, who allowed a league-worst 40.4 points to the Chargers in Week 1. Much of the Chargers’ backfield production came through the air, where Blount doesn’t excel, but he still should be able to run on the Vikes.
Also:
• The Bengals leaned on Cedric Benson for 25 carries, 121 yards and a score against the Browns in Week 1. If you saw the Raiders-Broncos game on Monday night, you know that Darren McFadden and Michael Bush ran as they pleased (32 carries, 191 yards, 28 fantasy points). Benson will be a busy man, and a productive one, in Denver on Sunday.
Wide Receivers
Stay away: Percy Harvin, Vikings (vs. Buccaneers)
Harvin may have returned the opening kickoff for a touchdown against the Chargers, but he also caught just two passes for seven yards from Donovan McNabb. The Buccaneers’ secondary had a rough day against the Lions (31.2 points to the wide receivers), but let’s chalk that up to the beginning of Stafford’s breakout season. Regardless of what the PDFPA says here, Harvin doesn’t look like a good play. I’m allowed to have one disagreement with the computer, right?
Also:
• Bengals’ rookie A.J. Green caught a 41-yard touchdown pass against the Browns in Week 1, but that’s all he caught. The Broncos gave up just 4.3 fantasy points to the Raiders’ terrible wideouts in Week 1, and with the Bengals starting rookie Andy Dalton (or reserve Bruce Gradkowski) at QB, Green figures to struggle at Mile High.
• Seattle’s Mike Williams (four catches, 34 yards) was held in check by the 49ers in Week 1. This week, the Seahawks will visit the Steelers, who will be breathing fire after getting blown out by the Ravens. Also, the Steelers gave up just four receptions for 74 yards (13.4 fantasy points) to the Ravens’ wideouts in Week 1. Whether Sidney Rice returns or not, Williams should prepare for a looooooong day in the Steel City.
Play, play, play: Plaxico Burress, Jets (vs. Jaguars)
During my chat session last Sunday morning, I responded to a string of “Should I start Burress?” questions with a blanket NO. Then Burress got targeted nine times by Mark Sanchez, resulting in four catches for 72 yards and a touchdown. Furthermore, the Jaguars allowed 208 yards and two touchdowns (32.8 points) to the Titans’ receivers, who aren’t exactly superstars. I won’t do a complete 180 on Burress just yet, but I would start him this week.
Also:
• Was the Packers’ passing game that good (42.3 points by the wide receivers), or were the Saints that bad on defense? Probably a bit of both, and Chicago’s Roy Williams looked good (four receptions, 55 yards) before leaving Sunday’s game with a groin injury. If Williams is healthy, he’s a decent play this week against the Who Dats.
• The Panthers showed some promise last week, but they allowed some big gains against the Cardinals, including six pass plays of more than 20 yards and 24.8 fantasy points to Larry Fitzgerald & Co. The Packers are capable of exploding against anyone, and Jordy Nelson tied Greg Jennings for the team lead with eight targets against the Saints. Nelson is likely to have a nice day against the so-so Panthers’ secondary. He was overlooked in a lot of fantasy drafts, but he’ll be starting in most leagues soon.
Tight Ends
Stay away: Brent Celek, Eagles (at Falcons)
The Falcons gave up a one-yard TD pass to Matt Spaeth in Week 1, but held the Bears’ tight ends to four catches and 30 yards overall. Celek looked to be a breakout candidate last year before Michael Vick came along and got mad when he found out that his tight end tithes 10 percent of his salary to PETA (at least that’s what I keep telling myself). Vick clearly doesn’t like throwing to Celek, who will be kept quiet by both Vick and the Falcons’ D this week.
Also:
• Who remembers last week, when Titans TE Jared Cook was viewed as a breakout candidate? He still might be, but he only had two catches for nine yards against the Jags, and the Ravens (4.2 fantasy points against the Steelers’ TEs last week) aren’t going to give him much room to breathe.
Play, play, play: Brandon Pettigrew, Lions (vs. Chiefs) Pettigrew had four receptions for 57 yards against the Bucs, along with six overall targets and two red zone targets. The Chiefs, on the other hand, gave up five catches, 63 yards and two touchdowns (18.3 fantasy points) to Scott Chandler on Sunday, and none of us had ever even heard of Chandler before the game. Pettigrew could be ready for a big season, and starting him this week is covered in Fantasy Matchups 101.
Also:
• The Cardinals gave up seven catches and 129 yards to Panthers TEs Greg Olsen and Jeremy Shockey in Week 1, and the Packers were only somewhat efficient against Saints’ TE Jimmy Graham, who had four catches, 56 yards and a score (11.6 fantasy points). Olsen was targeted six times by Newton, and appears to be the QB’s security blanket. He’s worth a start in a game that should see the Panthers trailing by quite a bit.
