Picking nits: Rangers
The Argument: Sure, the Rangers have been surprisingly good this season, especially lately. They're only two games out of first place! And they're roughly as well-positioned in the wild-card standings. Put those together, and the Rangers are at least 50/50 to reach the playoffs.
Are the Rangers a mirage, though? They've been outscored by 29 runs, they don't have anyone resembling an MVP or Cy Young candidate. The Rangers do rank sixth in the American League in scoring, but that's largely a product of their ballpark; the Rangers rank 11th in the league in road OPS.
The Rebuttal: OK, so it's hard to defend the Rangers' offense, which just isn't very good. The biggest reason for the Rangers' surprising success is probably the nice comeback seasons for both Shin-Soo Choo and Prince Fielder, but they've been merely good rather than great. There's just not much reason to believe this team has a better-than-average lineup, even at its best.
Ah, but the pitching. Six weeks ago, the Rangers' rotation was anchored by Colby Lewis and Yovani Gallardo. Which isn't good news if you're trying to beat good teams. But now their best pitchers are Cole Hamels and Derek Holland, which is a wholly different thing.
I'm won't begin to suggest the Rangers are particularly good, or (let alone) better than the Astros. Whatever the standings might ultimately look like. But how many teams add a couple of guys like Hamels and Holland in the middle of the season?