A 4-for-4 performance in
the second round had us feeling much
better about our NHL playoff predictions ... until we looked at the
conference-finals
matchups.
By now,
you’ve no doubt heard that the four semifinalists are also
the
last four winners of the Stanley Cup – L.A. in
2012, Boston in 2011, Chicago in 2010 and Pittsburgh in 2009
(incidentally, Detroit, the last of the quarterfinal teams left
standing, won the Cup in
2008).
All
of these teams have championship mettle. All of these teams have major
strengths. All of these teams have significant flaws that could derail
them under the right circumstances. And that makes predictions
difficult.
We
wouldn’t be surprised to see any one of these teams hoist the Cup in
June, but here is our take on which two teams will vie for that
honor.
EASTERN
CONFERENCE
FINAL
No. 1
Pittsburgh vs. No. 4
Boston
We’ve sent
the past 24 hours trying to talk ourselves out of an upset prediction,
but every time we think we have a handle on Pittsburgh’s prowess, we
find reasons to doubt
it.
The
Penguins won all three regular-season meetings, but all were by one
goal and Boston badly outshot the Penguins in the final two meetings.
Pittsburgh’s special teams have been on fire in the postseason (the
power play is ranked No. 1; the penalty kill is ranked No. 3) normally a
harbinger of playoff success. But that success came against two teams
(New York Islanders, Ottawa) that we’re convinced wouldn’t have been
playoff material if not for a weak Eastern Conference (yeah, we know
Ottawa got past a banged-up Canadiens
squad).
There are
oodles of juicy storylines in this
series.
There's
the Matt Cooke-Marc Savard
angle. There’s
Bruins forward Jaromir Jagr playing against the team he helped lead to
two Stanley Cups. There’s Penguins forward Jarome Iginla playing
against the team that thought it had secured a deal for
him near the trade
deadline.
But
what this comes down to for us is the belief that the better defensive
team, and the team with the better goaltending will win. In both cases,
that team is the Bruins, especially if veteran blueliners Andrew Ference
and Wade Redden are healthy and ready to return to a lineup that had to
rely on youngsters Matt Bartkowski and Torey Krug in the last
round.
There
is no questioning the Penguins’ firepower (4.27 goals per game in the
playoffs) and the otherworldly talents of forwards Sidney Crosby and
Evgeni Malkin, but Patrice Bergeron is a terrific defensive forward,
Tuukka Rask is a better goaltender than Tomas Vokoun, the Pens are shaky
on their blueline and we think the Bruins’ forward depth and grit are
underrated.
Boston
does have a flair for the dramatic, so we’re going the distance
here.
Prediction:
Bruins in
7
WESTERN
CONFERENCE
FINAL
No. 1
Chicago
vs. No. 5 Los
Angeles
We’re not
going
to hide our Blackhawk blood here. Most of you reading this are already
well aware of it. Having said that, we are still obligated to call it
like we see it. And we don’t like what we
see.
Ever since
the Blackhawks started that ridiculous 24-game streak in which they did
not lose in regulation, critics have been questioning whether this
roster and this style could succeed in the playoffs against a hard and
heavy
team.
Chicago was
fortunate to draw a skating Minnesota Wild team in the first round – a
team minus the talents of the injured Dany Heatley. The Hawks were also
fortunate to draw Detroit in the second round despite that to-the-wire,
seven-game, OT finish that featured Mike Babcock’s superlative coaching
effort and Jimmy Howard’s terrific goaltending. Still, Detroit’s game
plan of taking away time and space while knocking the Hawks around was
nearly successful, even though that is not Detroit’s
strength.
Enter
the, ahem, Kings of knock-around. Los Angeles has the kind of withering
forecheck, forward size and defensive clamps to shut down the
Blackhawks’ more skilled lineup if the Hawks’ defensemen struggle to
clear the zone quickly. More ominous for the Hawks, L.A. has the best
goaltender on the planet right now in Jonathan Quick. Corey Crawford has
been solid in goal for Chicago, but he’s also displayed a penchant for
soft goals, which won’t work against L.A., a team that has held the
opposition to two goals or fewer in 11 of 13 playoff games this
season.
Chicago’s
power
play has been a mess most of the season, so the
Hawks likely won’t be able to count on it consistently, even if L.A.
ends
up in the box frequently. What’s also been troubling has been the
absence of stars Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane (three goals combined)
from the scoring
column.
We
know the Hawks won the regular-season series, 2-1, but we don’t put
much stock in the regular season. The Hawks’ 4-0 sweep of Detroit is
reason enough to toss out regular-season
significance.
Two
things are working in Chicago’s favor: L.A. is banged up, with No. 3
center Jarret Stoll still
out with a concussion and plenty of players
sporting unlisted injuries after two very physical series against St.
Louis and San Jose. L.A. also has just one win in six road playoff
games, whereas last season’s Cup champ opened all four series in
opposing rinks yet still came home with a 2-0 series lead on Vancouver,
St. Louis, Phoenix and New
Jersey.
But
the Kings are a perfect 7-0 at home, and we think they’ll find a way to
steal a game in Chicago. That may be all it
takes.
Prediction:
Kings in
6
Follow
Craig Morgan on Twitter
