In the Times earlier this week, Benjamin Hoffman fisked David Ortiz's Hall of Fame prospects.
It's a perfectly objective take, but Hoffman did identify three reasons why voters might not for Ortiz:
One, his career totals won't wind up much better than those of Carlos Delgado and Fred McGriff, both of whom have received just the barest of sniffs from Hall of Fame voters. He also doesn't fare particularly well in more arcane measures like Wins Above Replacement; doesn't fare well at all, actually.
Two, the failed drug test.
And three, he's spent most of his career as a Designated Hitter.
In the long term, I think the first of those things will hurt him a lot more than the others. Ortiz will probably still be eligible -- assuming he's not actually elected earlier -- in 2030, by which point the drug test and the stigma (if there is one) of DH'ing will seem little more than vague, silly memories.
It's the numbers that are going to hurt him. Fifty WAR just isn't usually getting it done, unless you're Jim Rice or Andre Dawson or Tony Peréz and the voters somehow remember you as being more valuable than you actually were.
Which might happen!
And of course, Ortiz also has 357 plate appearances and a 962 OPS in postseason games, along with three championship rings. On the other hand, lately the voters don't seem all that impressed by postseason brilliance (cf. Curt Schilling), and anyway it doesn't seem that Ortiz actually has been responsible for so many postseason victories (as odd as that might seem, granted that link's not accounting for 2013).
I actually have very little idea about what will happen when Ortiz becomes eligible. Nor am I sure what should happen.
