Today, we debut OKTC's recruiting big board for the class of 2012. We'll update this list -- and eventually add a national component -- but for now we're assessing where each SEC school stands in the first week in August relative to its peers in the toughest recruiting conference in the nation.
Let's insert the requisite buyer beware language since a ton can change between now and the February signing date, but football recruiting is becoming more and more of a look-ahead business. With the scholarship limits now at 25 per team, many schools are locking down their commits earlier than ever before. Rather than rely on on any one site to rank classes, OKTC has analyzed the relative rankings and come up with what we think is a better, fairer, and more accurate measure for analyzing recruits and recruiting classses.
OKTC listed teams below based on current number of commits, our analysis for the player ratings, and a up/down "stock" analysis of where each team may be heading. This projection was based on number of commits already on board, big names left as legit prospects, etc. So for example, if a team already has 18 commits and will only take 20-21, it's hard for them to improve their standing too much. On the other hand if a team like Ole Miss only has eight players committed, they're more likely to hold steady at worse or improve their stock. A team like Auburn has probably maxed out on its potential and will likely hold steady at best, because its quality is already so high it will be almost impossible for it to improve star ratings. In Vanderbilt's case, they've already peaked and it will be very difficult for the next 5-10 commitments to match the quality of what they already have. So while perception is that they're on a roll, in reality their stock will probably head south in the next couple of months as they regress to their mean.
For this ranking, OKTC tallied everything strictly based on quality to date, not quantity. Some sites will take into account number of commits vs quality, but we think that's a bogus approach because a team who has 20 mediocre players shouldn't be analyzed mid-season as being as successful as a team with ten above average prospects. The second team has far more potential than the first but may wait until later to take commitments.
Without further ado, here is our rankings:
OKTC SEC Mid-class Recruiting Rankings
1. Auburn
13 commits - 3.9 OKTC average prospect rating
Future 2012 stock - Neutral
2. Florida
15 commits. 3.8 avg rating
Future 2012 stock - Rising
3. Alabama
14 commits. 3.6 avg rating
Future 2012 stock - Rising
4. LSU
18 commits. 3.5 avg rating
Future 2012 stock - Neutral
5. South Carolina
18 commits 3.4 avg rating
Future 2012 stock - Rising
6. Georgia
12 commits 3 avg rating
Future 2012 stock - Rising
7. Vanderbilt
15 commits 2.9 avg rating
Future 2012 stock - Neutral
8. Arkansas
14 commits 2.6 avg rating
Future 2012 stock - Neutral
9. Ole Miss
8 commits - 2.6 avg rating
Future 2012 stock - Rising
10. Tennessee
12 commits - 2.5 avg rating
Future 2012 stock - Neutral
11. Miss. State
15 commits - 2.4 avg rating
Future 2012 stock - Neutral
12. Kentucky
16 commits - 2.0 avg rating
Future 2012 stock - Rising
