As we come down the stretch run of the season, it's looking like the playoff committee is going to have a really difficult job. Good luck guys, no matter which decisions you make you're going to piss off a lot of fans. This is set up to be a perfect year for an eight team playoff. Unfortunately we only have four teams this year.
Good luck trying to make sense of it all. Here's Outkick's best guess.
1. Alabama
The Crimson Tide would be favored over any team in the country according to Vegas and beat the number one team in the country. With Auburn wobbling down the stretch it seems likely the Tide will be 11-1 and facing either Mizzou or Georgia in the SEC title game.
2. Oregon
The Ducks had a bye week and only have Colorado and Oregon State left. If the Ducks finish 12-1 they're in the playoff. I have them ranked beneath Alabama because the Tide's road loss at top ten Ole Miss is better than Oregon's home loss against Arizona. Otherwise these resums are very similar.
3. Mississippi State
Mississippi State has better wins and a better loss than any one loss team in the country. They outgained Alabama by nearly a hundred yards, lost by five on the road against the best team in the country and still have top ten Ole Miss left on the schedule. If Mississippi State goes 11-1, they'll be in the playoff. I've promised to do Fox Sports Live in a loin cloth if it doesn't happen.
4. Florida State
The Seminoles survived against Miami, but FSU's two best wins, Clemson and Notre Dame, both lost and will fall out of the top 25 this week. This means FSU is likely to finish the season without a single top 25 win. That's pretty tough to pull off. If the committee really values strength of schedule and "game control," I think there's a small chance they could drop FSU out of the playoff if Baylor, TCU, and Ohio State keep winning. Would they be willing to do it? I doubt it.
5. Baylor
The Bears didn't play, but TCU's struggle with Kansas will make many who ranked TCU above Baylor reassess their opinions. I remain convinced that if both Baylor and TCU finish 11-1 that there's no way TCU is ranked ahead of Baylor.
6. TCU
TCU won, but they were far from impressive. Now the question becomes, will the Horned Frogs be able to win at Texas on Thanksgiving night? Look out, that's going to be a really tough game. The playoff committee will surely be rooting for Texas or Kansas State to pull off the upsets that final week of the season.
7. Georgia
The Bulldogs might be the most infuriating team in the country. They're good enough to beat Mizzou by 34 or dominate Auburn while at the same time getting crushed by Florida. Having said that, how many teams would you feel comfortable picking to beat Georgia?
(Let's hope Todd Gurley is okay).
8. Ole Miss
The Rebels had a bye week and now close with games at Arkansas and Mississippi State in Oxford. It's crazy how close Ole Miss is to being 10-0. Instead the Rebels are 8-2 and holding out hope that Auburn can upset Alabama and that they can beat Mississippi State and advance to the SEC title game.
9. Ohio State
Congrats to the Buckeyes, I'm sliding you into the top ten just in front of UCLA. Could there be enough chaos to get the Buckeyes in the playoff? I don't think so. But who the hell knows this year?
10. UCLA
Look out, could the Bruins make a case for the playoff at 11-2 with a win over Oregon in the Pac 12 title game? Sure. That's why I took a flier on the Bruins to win the title at 200 to 1 on Thursday of this past week.
