Newcomer Miller highlights 3 pitching X-factors for Braves in 2015
For all the credit being paid to small-ball and reduced strikeout rates, the Atlanta Braves' surprising 3-0 start in Miami -- the franchise's first season-opening sweep since 2007 -- was made possible by pitching. If it weren't for three strong starting efforts and a near-perfect bullpen performance, that record could easily be 1-2 after two games of scoring only two runs apiece.
While much has changed in terms of team personnel, the club's identity still revolves around pitching. And for a group that lost roughly 60 percent of its innings from a year ago, different names need to pick up the slack. Here are a few crucial X-factors for the Braves pitching staff this season (for our positional X-factors, click here):
Atlanta's trio of 24-year-old starters -- Miller, Julio Teheran and Alex Wood -- allowed just three runs in 16 innings of work in their collective debut against the Marlins, an early clinic against a quality opponent and, perhaps, a sign of good things to come.
Teheran and Wood are off to strong starts after two consecutive years of good-to-great production under their belts, but it's Miller, the newcomer, who could be the key piece. While the Nos. 1 and 2 arms in the Braves rotation have shown consistency and constant growth, Miller comes into 2015 with a little more to prove.
The MLB-ready piece in the Jason Heyward blockbuster, Miller struggled to follow up on excellent rookie numbers last season in St. Louis. His strikeout and walk rates went in the wrong directions and he posted the seventh-worst FIP (4.54) among qualified starters. It was the prototypical sophomore slump. If that's the version of Shelby Miller the Braves are trotting out every fifth day, then a team that is projected to rely heavily on keeping runs off the board will run into some trouble, especially considering the question marks in the Nos. 4 and 5 starter roles.
However, if his late-season surge and '15 debut -- not to mention gaining a better feel for his two-seam fastball -- offer any hints, Miller could complete one of the best young 1-2-3 punches in the National League.
Three games removed from the sudden departure of one of the franchise's biggest stars, not much has changed. The Braves are 2 for 2 in save opportunities with 38-year-old veteran reliever Jason Grilli, and, to date, it's been a seamless transition from perennial All-Star Craig Kimbrel to a guy that ran up a combined 4.00 ERA for two different teams last season.
No one is going to mistake Grilli, a journeyman who has posted just one season (2013 Pirates) within shouting distance of Kimbrel's career stratosphere, with a pitcher who is shaping up to be the greatest closer in a generation. That's not going to happen. The Braves are not banking on Grilli to be the next Kimbrel -- they are simply betting that he can get the ninth-inning job done at a similarly respectable clip.
That's the thing with the last-minute Kimbrel trade: Even as baseball's top relief pitcher over the past four-plus seasons, he's averaged around 64 innings per season since 2012. Last season alone, Braves pitchers accounted for more than 1,450 total innings. All closers, even great ones, are limited by workload. Is there value and confidence in knowing that late leads are in dominant hands? Of course, and manager Fredi Gonzalez said as much over and over during Kimbrel's tenure in Atlanta. The key, though, is how much of that production can Gonzalez & Co. replace.
Kimbrel owned a 92.2 success rate in save opportunities, the fifth-best mark among pitchers with 20 or more saves in 2014. He slammed the door effectively and, on many occasions, with very few scares, posting a 13.9 strikeout rate and .142 opposing batting average.
Still, when it comes to the bare-minimum requirements of the position, 15 other pitchers were at least around 95 percent as effective -- saving 88 percent or more of their opportunities. If Grilli can stay in that range, saving 88-90 percent of his opportunities, that's a win for Atlanta.
Could it mean one or two more blown saves? Sure. Could it mean more late-inning scares and fewer 1-2-3 innings with game-ending strikeouts celebrated by flamethrowers? Absolutely. This is not to undermine the historic accomplishments of Kimbrel, but as Grilli has shown in his first two 2015 appearances (six batters faced, no hits or walks, three strikeouts), the difference between a superstar closer and an effective replacement can be mitigated.
The health of the longest-tenured member of the Braves rotation could alter the complexion of the 2015 rotation. Minor, who has dealt with shoulder issues dating back to last season and who entered the season on the disabled list, is now more than a year removed from his standout '13 campaign with very little productivity in between and his future in Atlanta potentially up in the air. Aside from a brief surge late in the season, he was a replacement-level pitcher last season and now, on a team that has restocked its farm system with top-line pitching depth, he could find himself fighting for a spot on the staff.
When Minor is locked in, he's a welcome left-handed presence. In 2013, he posted a 3.37 FIP over 204 2/3 innings -- top-20 numbers among pitchers with at least 200 innings that season -- and garnered "ace" discussions on a start-to-start basis. If he's healthy and able to regain his top form, the Braves could boast a formidable rotation that goes righty-lefty-righty-lefty with Teheran, Wood and Miller.
However, that seems like a long shot at the moment as he battles back from his second consecutive preseason setback.
The 27-year-old drew rave reviews from the coaching staff during spring training before inflammation in his shoulder's rotator cuff sent him to the DL, and just three games into the season it seems possible that he finds himself on the outside looking in -- if not this year, then certainly next as the team's top pitching talent starts pushing for MLB time.
Atlanta opened the season with veteran Eric Stults and newly acquired right-hander Trevor Cahill rounding the rotation, but Mike Foltynewicz and Cody Martin (currently in the bullpen) could also push for starting consideration should Minor falter in his return. Either way, Minor's health will trigger a domino effect. Plenty of personnel movement hinges on what Minor can give this team.
