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New York Yankees should embrace Alex Rodriguez as he exceeds expectations
Major League Baseball

New York Yankees should embrace Alex Rodriguez as he exceeds expectations

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 5:40 p.m. ET

I'€™ve got two things I want to say about Alex Rodriguez, maybe even three. As you evaluate this column, feel free to judge the merits of my arguments and the grace of my transitions from one thought to another (and yes, I'€™m already concerned about the latter).

Here'€™s my thesis, though: Alex Rodriguez is a pretty talented player, and should be accorded the respect due a pretty talented player who also happens to be -- like it or not! --€“ a human being, not terribly unlike you and me.

Friday, Rodriguez hit a 477-foot home run (you can see most of those 477 feet right here). Sunday, The Economist's Dan Rosenheck asked a not-unreasonable question: Does Rodriguez'€™s home run, the longest of this young season, carry (to borrow Bill James'€™ term) signature significance?

Rosenheck'€™s really good at math, and his math suggests that yes, those 477 feet probably do mean something. Just how much, I'€™ll leave you to decide. Here'€™s Dan'€™s big finish, though:

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Applying this principle to Mr Rodri­guez'€™s case is tricky. On one hand, we know far more about him than we do about Cuban defectors: he has been playing in MLB for 20 years. Given his age and mediocre performance in the years before his suspension, there is good reason to be skeptical (leaving aside the question of his admitted steroid use) that he has discovered a fountain of youth. The two leading quantitative baseball projection systems freely available to the public, Steamer and ZiPS, have barely budged from their bearish preseason forecasts for Mr Rodriguez. It won't be long before sportswriters who earn their livings by cautioning gullible readers about the perils of drawing premature conclusions from small sample sizes (often abbreviated SSS) begin citing Mr Rodriguez'€™s recent performance as the latest candidate for inclusion in the SSS song.

Nonetheless, the logic of signature significance suggests that this know-it-all, hold-your-horses message is arguably just as simplistic as the irrational exuberance over early-season hot streaks it criticizes. The fact that Mr Rodriguez propelled a single baseball 477 feet means there is a very strong chance he is not the player we thought he was. Guys who are washed up just don'€™t hit 477-foot homers. Not even once.

Two things about this. One, I don'€™t think there should have been much question about Mr. Rodriguez'€™s native abilities before this season. There is a long, long history of supremely talented players doing impressive things whilst in their late 30s and even their early 40s, guys like Barry Bonds, Willie Mays, Honus Wagner, Hank Aaron, and Hank Williams. Now, say what you like about Mr. Rodriguez, but it'€™s pretty hard to argue that he'€™s not supremely talented.

Now, I don't mean to suggest that nobody believed Mr. Rodriguez was washed up. Because I believed he was washed up. I simply didn'€™t believe that he would ever be healthy enough for those supreme talents to show up on the field again. Not for long, anyway. And I was wrong. So far, anyway. While this Small Sample Size might actually tell us a great deal about Mr. Rodriguez'€™s 39-year-old power, I'€™m not completely convinced that we yet know much about his 39-year-old body'€™s ability to stay in the lineup for 120-some games.

But yes, I am surprised that he'€™s playing well ... and maybe even more surprised that he'€™s playing at all. See, I never thought it would get to this point. I thought the Yankees would probably just release Mr. Rodriguez a long time ago, or at least before spring training. Because his modest performance simply wouldn'€™t balance whatever disharmony his presence would sew within the organization.

Again: I was wrong. I was wrong about the Yankees releasing him, and I was wrong about his performance. Aside from my fuzzy sort of feeling that Mr. Rodriguez could --€“ if he could get his body to cooperate and if he wasn't released -- become a decent hitter again, I've been wrong about everything. So please feel free to take this next part with a healthy dose of skepticism, but ... I'm not wild about how the Yankees are handling this whole affair.

No, wait. That'€™s a bit too strong. Let me say this instead: I think the Yankees should be open to reconsidering their approach if things continue as they have.

Look, maybe the Yankees'€™ refusal to even acknowledge Mr. Rodriguez'€™s upcoming milestone is some stroke of genius. No, they'€™re not likely to avoid paying the $6 million that comes with 660 home runs. But maybe they'€™ve somehow determined that ignoring Mr. Rodriguez is exactly what he needs to stay humble and productive. Maybe a note in the daily press materials would only serve to-- €”Nah, that'€™s not it. We know that's not it, don't we? The Yankees were really hoping this whole thing would just go away but they weren'€™t willing to eat the $61 million that would have made it go away.

It seems bygones can'€™t just be bygones, though. It seems that management is going to try to avoid spending the $6 million, and it seems that management is going to do everything to avoid embracing a player it believed, seven years ago, was worth $275 million (plus bonuses).

We'€™re seeing the same thing, of course, on the other side of the country, where the Angels should have known what they were getting, and now seem to be doing everything they can to get out of it.

Well, good luck with that one, fellas. You go ahead and hold your noses, but you'€™re going to write the checks. Me, I'€™m going to make the best of a bad situation, and not only live with, but embrace my mistake.

We shouldn'€™t be surprised by either organization, though. Signing Alex Rodriguez and Josh Hamilton both seemed like emotion-based decisions at the time. So we shouldn'€™t be surprised that both organizations seem driven by emotions now. I keep thinking that when things cool off a little, cold logic will rule the day.

But I'€™ve been wrong about these things before. So this time I'€™ll just admit that I don'€™t have any idea what'€™s going to happen next.

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