Now that Christmas is over, 2014 is winding down and 2015 will soon be upon us. In ACC basketball, that also means the beginning of conference play.
No ACC team is perfect, even as well as some are playing, and all of them need to make New Year's resolutions that can improve their play. Whether they keep them or not is a different story altogether, but hey, show of hands if you've kept your resolutions the past 10 years or so? That's what I thought. It couldn't hurt.
If you don't speak French -- and I really don't, either -- that means "Come back, Olivier!" Olivier, as in Olivier Hanlan, a dynamic junior French Canadian guard and one of the better players in the league. His offensive efficiency rating, per stats guru Ken Pom, is a career-low 98.4 at the moment, and he's shooting nearly 30 percent of his team's shots despite making just 21.2 percent of his 3-pointers and a ghastly 63 percent of his free throws, which is by far the worst mark of his career if its stands. His turnover rate also is at an all-time high.
Boston College has had a fairly respectable non-conference performance to date, and the Eagles are bolstered by transfers Aaron Brown and Dimitri Batten. If they can get more from Hanlan -- and who would have thought that would have been a question mark, right? -- they could make a bit of noise in the ACC.
Clemson's offense has been bad, bad, bad for the past five years or so under Brad Brownell, and it's not showing any signs of getting better, particularly without go-to, do-everything star K.J. McDaniels. Clemson is shooting better than 50 percent from two-point range but just 29.1 percent from long range, and the Tigers have attempted more than a third of their shots from behind the arc. Also, they're registering assists on just 46.4 percent of their field goals. So maybe a few more passes, some off-the-ball movement, and, you know, a screen or two here or there -- I know, I know, let's not get too crazy -- might help generate some better looks closer to the basket.
In the beginning of the year, Duke was working the ball inside-out consistently, either letting the magnificent freshman Jahlil Okafor put a beautiful post move on a hapless opponent or watching as he dished to a wide-open teammate for a jumper as a double team collapsed on him. Duke is still doing this reasonably well, and the Blue Devils can't go away from that in games. Feed the big fella and let him go to work. Almost any possession that doesn't include an Okafor touch when he's on the court is a bad possession.
Oh, and Okafor's resolution will be to shoot better from the foul line. He's shooting just 51.1 percent. If Duke is going to feed him and he's going to shoot that poorly, teams likely will take their chances fouling him rather than let him go to work, so he has to make them pay.
When senior guard Aaron Thomas was declared ineligible by the NCAA, Florida State had already had a rough beginning to the season. But the Seminoles have won three in a row since that decision came down. Freshmen Xavier Rathan-Mayes and Phil Cofer are playing more and more now -- particularly Cofer, a forward -- and they're going to make mistakes, but they're talented and will grow, too.
Rathan-Meyes has averaged 10.7 points and 8.3 assists during this three-game win streak, while Cofer has added 8.3 points and seven rebounds. Ride with the frosh, mistakes and all, and they'll reward you more than once.
Georgia Tech is shooting just 28.8 percent of its shots from beyond the arc, which is good because it has made just 24 percent of them (349th nationally). But in three losses, they're 14 of 65 from three (21.5 percent) and 59 of 115 from two (51.3 percent), and they've reached the foul line just 41 times in those games. That's 36.1 percent of their shots attempted from beyond the arc in losses. Don't do that.
The Yellow Jackets are grabbing a lot of offensive rebounds, which is good because their big men (like Charles Mitchell) can put those right back in for a basket, but you can't rely on that. That's not the same as a pass. So, you know, maybe pass. Georgia Tech is assisting less than half of its made field goals, and so maybe just feed the big guys and get higher-percentage shots as opposed to jacking up threes your opponents want you to take.
Louisville's sophomore guard is shooting 34.1 percent from beyond the arc, but even he has had his struggles. He's 14 of 41 from three, but multiple players have attempted more threes -- and made fewer.
Chris Jones is shooting 30.8 percent while senior guard Wayne Blackshear is at 29.6 percent. This isn't going to work. Those two need to shoot the basketball better -- Louisville is just 29 percent from three, 303rd nationally, and it's really the only thing that Louisville hasn't done brilliantly. If shots start to fall, look out.
Miami was red-hot from three when the season began, and even a recent slump has still seen the Hurricanes shooting 38 percent (47th nationally) from beyond the arc. But Miami scores 35.7 percent of its points from the outside and it isn't getting to the foul line or shooting as many two-pointers as it could. Jumpers stop falling, and we've seen the consequences of that for the Hurricanes.
Let Sheldon McClellan (62.2 percent from two) or center Tonye Jekiri (50 percent from two) do some work on the inside, draw some fouls and/or hit some higher-percentage shots.
Who knew that Marcus Paige, preseason ACC Player of the Year, would still be such a question mark for the Tar Heels? He's hit just 35.3 percent of his two-pointers, 34.2 percent of his threes, and he isn't getting to the foul line as much as he was toward the end of last season. If he can get back on track, the Tar Heels are going to look much more like the team that was in last season's NCAA Tournament.
Freshman Justin Jackson has averaged 13.3 points in North Carolina's four KenPom top-100 wins this season and 7.4 in all other games. That's not a coincidence. As freshman point guard Joel Berry continues to progress, Paige can continue to get more comfortable playing off the ball and adjusting to his role as more of a scorer, too. But it has to keep happening.
The Wolfpack set about making this resolution a thing a bit early, executing fairly well down the stretch in a comeback win over Louisiana Tech (a face-palm-inducing foul on a 3-pointer aside). But whether it's fouling an opponent with the lead, missing free throws or turning the ball over, NC State has had trouble closing out opponents cleanly.
NC State needs to learn to put the foot on the throat, hit its free throws (as head coach Mark Gottfried, he of the aforementioned face-palm, said after the Louisiana Tech game, have the courage to make them) and just close out opponents. Things are only going to get tougher from here, and an at-large profile is still right there for the Wolfpack.
Seriously, almost any will do. Notre Dame's offense is ridiculously good at the moment, leading the nation in both effective field goal percentage (63.4 percent) and turnover percentage (13.6 percent). The Irish are tearing up the nets from 3-point range, from two, and taking care of the basketball.
Notre Dame has never forced a ton of turnovers, and the Irish are not this year either. They're keeping opponents off the foul line too, which is useful. They need to keep that trend going, as they're defending the paint well (teams are shooting 42.4 percent from two) and keeping teams off the offensive glass. They're 148th nationally in total defense and if they have the kinds of lapses which have characterized the past few seasons, they're not just going to be able to outscore everyone in ACC play.
How stunning is it to say that about a Jamie Dixon-coached team? The Panthers are allowing opponents to rebound more than 31 percent of their missed shots and shoot 48 percent from inside the 3-point line. The good news is that in the past five games, Pitt has done just that, holding opponents to 45.8 percent from inside the arc and blocking 24 shots. And those five games were all wins! Still a bit on the high side, but it's better than the 58 percent Pitt had allowed in its four games before that against D-I teams (of which it lost three) when it blocked just seven shots. Pitt doesn't have a ton of height, but it has to use its energy and defense to make things more difficult or it will be a long year in ACC play.
I know you miss Tyler Ennis, Syracuse. We all do. But right now, Syracuse's turnover percentage of 19.7 percent would be its highest since 2010 (21.5 percent). Syracuse finished last year 14th in that category, turning it over just 14.8 percent of the time. In close losses to Michigan and Villanova, Syracuse has had a turnover percentage that's way too high to win (30.6 percent at Michigan, 24.7 percent at Villanova).
Interestingly enough, Syracuse is averaging just 15.4 seconds per possession, which is one of the fastest rates nationally. Maybe slow down a touch, take care of the ball and get the best possible shot. Some of this is on freshman point guard Kaleb Joseph (a 33.5 percent turnover rate), but he's not the only one.
How do you quibble with anything Virginia is doing? The Cavaliers look fantastic on both sides of the ball and are beating up on everyone, even their good opponents. The only category nationally that they don't rate well in on offense, though, is free-throw rate: 225th in getting to the line, in spite of making 73 percent of their attempts. We're nitpicking here, because it's obviously working for them, but right now, this is the second-best free-throw shooting team in the Tony Bennett era and it feels like they're leaving some points out there by not getting to the line more.
This is going to be a rough year. The trials and tribulations will be many. But new head coach Buzz Williams knows what he's doing. He's trying everything he can think of, even reshuffling lineups to send a message and riding with the young kids, but nothing seems to be working. It likely won't this year. But he has plenty of young talent to build around, and this team needs to continue to listen to him and do what he says. It's just going to take time, and they can't fall apart.
Wake Forest's junior forward could be one of the best players in the ACC. He has that kind of talent. But he also has a temper, and far too often -- particularly in key moments -- it gets the better of him. He already has four technical fouls through 12 games, and he was ejected from the Bucknell game after arguing a foul against him after a contact technical earlier in the game.
At times, the fouls and adversity affect his play, too. As first-year head coach Danny Manning tries to build a program, he can't have one of his best players going off the reservation every third game or so. It's a bad example, and it's something he can't afford to tolerate, even if it means more losses.
