NCAA Sweet 16 East Regional Preview
The East Regional in Boston features the region's top two seeds, Syracuse and Ohio State, teams that spent all season at or near the top of the national polls and have the headline talent to eventually cut down the nets in New Orleans.
Now that we've reached the Sweet 16, the East Regional is probably the most balanced of the four and maybe the most intriguing, too.
Syracuse (33-2) is still the favorite even without Fab Melo because the Orange are the region's most dangerous scoring team and maybe its most athletic.
Ohio State (29-7) can stake its claim to the prize everybody thought it would win last year because Jared Sullinger is an inside force for a team that's proven lately it's much more than just Sullinger.
The two Big East vs. Big Ten matchups in Thursday's games figure to be close, low-scoring games to determine the Elite Eight participants. All four teams are strong defensively, have upper-class leadership and won't have to stray far from their preferred styles if a slugfest breaks out.
All four teams coming to Boston this weekend have a legitimate chance to advance to the Final Four. Wisconsin (26-9) is a scrappy, dangerous underdog led by senior point guard Jordan Taylor, who's very capable of hitting big shots.
Cincinnati (26-10) has an experienced, unselfish team with a proven post man Yancy Gates capable of neutralizing Sullinger and a bunch of guards who make consistent contributions at both ends.
A closer look at the East region:
Syracuse Orange (1)
Next game: Syracuse vs. (4) Wisconsin, Thursday, 7:15 p.m. ET
How they got here: def. No. 16. seed UNC-Asheville, 72-65, def. No. 8 seed Kansas State, 75-59
Potential show-stealer: Lots of coaches still in this tournament wish they had a player such as Dion Waiters in their starting lineup; that he comes off the bench for Syracuse says a lot about this team's talent level. Waiters has scored in double figures in each of the last six games, is a legitimate 3-point threat and often gets the buckets that either spark or extend Syracuse runs.
Why they're Final Four-bound: As expected, the Orange passed through the Pittsburgh sub-regional last weekend but didn't exactly pass with flying colors. The narrow escape vs. Asheville, though, was a wake-up call, and in the second half vs. shorthanded Kansas State, Syracuse finally clicked. The Orange have the depth and the athletes to continue their run through this weekend, and if the shots drop, they'll be an especially tough out. If Scoop Jardine plays like he did vs. Kansas State (16 points, 8 assists), Syracuse will be tough to beat.
Why they'll stumble: They miss ineligible 7-footer Fab Melo blocking shots in the middle of their trademark zone defense, and they really miss his rebounding. Wisconsin will give Syracuse fits with its relentless defense and 3-point shooting, and if Syracuse doesn't own the defensive glass and use its length to get into passing lanes, the Badgers will control the ball and the tempo. Any of the four in Boston can win this region, and the No. 1 seed label isn't worth any extra points.
Prediction: Syracuse will survive an ugly one vs. Wisconsin but lose a close one to Ohio State on Saturday.
Wisconsin Badgers (4)
Next game: Wisconsin vs. (1) Syracuse, Thursday, 7:15 p.m. ET
How they got here: def. No. 13 seed Montana, 73-49, def. no. 5 seed Vanderbilt 60-57
Potential show-stealer: Rob Wilson. The senior backup guard has gone from afterthought to super sub, with a 30-point performance in the Big Ten tournament quarterfinals as his shining moment. More could be ahead as Wilson's emergence has opened things up for Jordan Taylor and Ryan Evans, and the Badgers have been really good over the past month. They'll need to make a bunch of outside shots to beat Syracuse, and their recent body of work indicates they can.
Why they're Final Four-bound: Taylor's senior season got off to a slow start, and it's no coincidence his team followed suit. He's come on strong lately and is the unquestioned leader of a team that still has outstanding defensive numbers but is producing more offense lately with Evans, Wilson and Jared Berggren contributing clutch baskets. Only one team has scored more than 67 on Wisconsin since mid-February, so Syracuse had better come focused and ready to play.
Why they'll stumble: The Sweet 16 often separates the true contenders from the pretenders, and Wisconsin has to prove it has enough firepower to outlast the Orange, not just come close. Syracuse will do everything it can to take Taylor away and make the other guys win it for the Badgers. Wisconsin had to hold on last weekend against Vanderbilt, and there's a much smaller margin for error this weekend.
Prediction: Taylor and Wisconsin will push Syracuse Thursday night but ultimately come up a few points short.
Ohio State Buckeyes (2)
Next game: Ohio State vs. (6) Cincinnati, Thursday, 9:45 p.m. ET
How they got here: def. No. 15. seed Loyola-Maryland, 78-59, def. No. 7 seed Gonzaga, 73-66
Potential show-stealer: Aaron Craft doesn't fill up the score sheet and likes to avoid the spotlight, but he's driving the Buckeye bus. Craft often sets the tone for Ohio State at both ends of the floor and he has three of the best friends a pass-first point guard could ask for in Jared Sullinger, Deshaun Thomas and William Buford. The Buckeyes will need to play up to tempo this weekend, and they'll look to Craft to set it.
Why they're Final Four-bound: They haven't been perfect, but they are playing better than they have since November and have four players capable of taking over at key moments. Three of those players are sophomores, but the Buckeyes don't lack big-stage experience and won't lose many rebounding battles. It won't be easy, but the bracket sets up nicely for a team that's adaptable and very dangerous going forward.
Why they'll stumble: They just don't shoot the 3-point shot with much consistency, and the survivor this weekend in Boston is going to have to win two low-scoring, tightly-contested games in which every point counts. They got a lot of points in the post last weekend but will find much stronger opposition in Boston this weekend, and the Buckeyes still aren't sure who would take a buzzer-beating shot if it comes to that.
Prediction: With a healthy Jared Sullinger — he seemed a step slow last weekend — and some solid defense, the Buckeyes will beat Cincinnati and Syracuse in tight games to advance to the Final Four.
Cincinnati Bearcats (6)
Next game: Cincinnati vs. (2) Ohio State, Thursday, 9:45 p.m. ET
How they got here: def. 11 seed Texas, 65-59, def. no. 3 seed Florida State, 62-56
Potential show-stealer: Jaquon Parker is the only Bearcats starter without a double-figure scoring average, but he's been Cincinnati's most valuable player in stretches because of his multiple contributions. The Bearcats are here because they haven't cared who's getting the spotlight, instead embracing the chance to make the extra pass and use team defense to set up scoring chances. Parker's energy and unselfishness will continue to be key to Cincinnati's very real chances going forward.
Why they're Final Four-bound: If a glass slipper truly fits anybody in this tournament, it's Cincinnati. The Bearcats have momentum, plenty of athletes, are battle-tested and can win close games. They're unselfish and capable of spreading the scoring wealth, and all five guys crash the glass. The Bearcats beat Syracuse two weeks ago and know they're good enough defensively to beat Ohio State Thursday night.
Why they'll stumble: Every Bearcats game is a dog fight, and they're taking a step up in class. Ohio State's half-court defense can be suffocating and the Buckeyes' scoring spurts tend to come more frequently than either of Cincinnati's first weekend opponents are capable of producing. If the Bearcats can't get Cashmere Wright or Sean Kilpatrick hot early and build a lead, you have to wonder if they can make enough clutch shots to keep pace down the stretch.
Prediction: Cincinnati will lose a close one to Ohio State Thursday night.