My Vegas Bet: South Carolina Will Win the 2012 BCS Title
This past weekend I was in Las Vegas for a bachelor party.
It was an amazing weekend that featured one man's heart stoppping, another man's lighting himself on fire during a lap dance, and an underage prostitute stealing a license from a third man.
It was also the perfect time for me to lay my futures bets for the upcoming football season.
Here were my bets at the Palazzo sports book.
1. I put a thousand dollars on Kentucky to go under 4.5 wins.
My friend Tardio, the bachelor, is a Kentucky grad. So were four of the eight guys on his bachelor party.
Immediately after I put down a thousand on UK to go under 4.5 wins, he put $100 on principle alone, for Kentucky to go over 4.5 wins.
Notwithstanding his faith as a fan, this is money in the bank.
Here's Kentucky's 2012 schedule:
Kentucky will be strong Vegas favorites in just two games all season: Kent State and Samford.
Otherwise the Cats will be favored over Western Kentucky, by just a few points. I'm telling you this game will be an absolute war and Western may spring the upset. Hell, last year Western absolutely gave away the game.
Kentucky will be double digit underdogs in all five road games.
Even if you give the Cats wins over Kent State, Western Kentucky, and Samford, which two SEC games is Kentucky going to win on this slate?
The Cats are going 4-8 at best.
Here were the rest of the current SEC team over/unders:
South Carolina 8.5
Mississippi State 7.5
Texas A&M 7.5
Ole Miss 4.5
(Georgia was not listed, presumably for suspension reasons).
2. I took South Carolina to win the national title.
Here were the national title odds for SEC teams:
South Carolina 30/1
Mississippi State 80/1
Texas A&M 100/1
The other three SEC teams, Vandy, Ole Miss, and Kentucky are in the field at 8/1 odds.
In case you're wondering, the other top teams nationally were:
Florida State 9/1
Virginia Tech 15/1
So why did I pick South Carolina?
Sure, LSU and Alabama are more likely to win the title, but the payoff is slim. Everyone expects those teams to be in the mix. Do you realize that if South Carolina doesn't blow the Auburn game, the Gamecocks -- even with Lattimore injured last year -- are 11-1 in the SEC title game playing LSU for a trip to the BCS title game?
Provided some of their young receivers can step up, I think the Gamecocks will be every bit as good in 2012 as they were in 2011.
I absolutely love Marcus Lattimore, I think Connor Shaw is highly underrated at quarterback and will blossom this year, and I believe the Gamecock pass rush this season is going to be otherwordly.
I expect for the Gamecocks to be favored in every game this year except for the road game at LSU and, maybe, the road game at Florida. Plus, the SEC East is most likely to come down to Georgia or South Carolina, and the Gamecocks get Georgia at home. So if South Carolina can run the table at 11-1, which I think the Gamecocks can, it would get a rematch against LSU or Alabama in the SEC title game. Pull off an upset there and the Gamecocks would slingshot in to the BCS title game at 12-1.
For 30-1 odds that doesn't seem unrealistic.
Especially since if an 11-1 Gamecock team makes it to Atlanta I'd be able to hedge my bet and be guaranteed to make good money regardless of the outcome.
I don't know what it is, but being around Spurrier all spring and summer, his swagger is back. I think he really, really likes this football team.
And I'm trusting the ole ball coach is right.
The proverbial fly in the ointment to my Gamecock bet is if there are multiple undefeated teams from outside the SEC. Then the Gamecocks are probably out of the title run given they'd have to go to LSU and win.
Of course, now that I've put money on South Carolina to win the national title, the Gamecocks are definitely going to get upset here in Nashville on the Thursday night opener of the college football season.
3. FYI, for the Dool-Aid drinkers out there, I also put $100 on Tennessee to win the national title at 100-1 odds.
So if Tennesseee wins the national title I'll make $10,000.
4. Finally, I put $100 on the Tennessee Titans to win the AFC South at 6-1 odds.
I did this because the Houston Texans were a prohibitive 1/6 favorite in the division.
It's the NFL, teams leap up from nowhere every year to snag division crowns.
So I'm rolling with the Titans on this bet.
Thoughts on how I'll do?