Moments after the All-Star Game in Arizona had ended, the Mets shipped the much-maligned Francisco Rodriguez to the Brewers, unofficially initiating baseball’s trading frenzy before the July 31 deadline. (Granted, Mark Ellis was sent to Colorado from Oakland, who had earlier received Scott Sizemore via Detroit. But those moves weren’t exactly newsworthy, if you know what I mean.) The trade was symbolic of the continued fall of Rodriguez, whose off-the-field issues have overshadowed his pitching performance, and the Mets franchise, as the deal was strictly a cost-cutting move for the cash-strapped organization.
Early word out of Milwaukee indicates Ron Roenicke utilizing both in the closer role contingent on the situation, as Rodriguez (3.16 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 23 saves) is dominant against right-handed batters (.194 average compared to left-handers hitting .313 this season) while current closer John Axford (2.83 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 23 saves) is better against lefties (.205 versus .273).
If this remains the case, the fantasy stocks of Rodriguez and Axford plummet, as each will be looking at 10-15 save opportunities in this scenario. Don’t jettison either pitcher until the situation plays itself out, but unless your league awards points for holds, look elsewhere for relief assistance. In regards to the vacant closer role in New York, Mets manager Terry Collins will deploy a committee of Pedro Beato, Bobby Parnell and Jason Isringhausen to finish games until someone rises from the pack.
With the trade deadline just weeks away, other players on the possible move face fluctuation in their fantasy value. Understandably, it’s difficult to precisely gauge a player’s worth without knowing their destination or defined role. Yet a quick examination of their stats could give us a glimpse of what to expect. Here are five fantasy players to monitor during baseball’s swapping season.
Heath Bell
Bell is the hottest name on the trade wire, as the closer hits free-agency this winter and the Padres sit 12 games back in the NL West. Bell’s 2.43 ERA and 1.19 WHIP are enticing numbers for teams in need of alleviating bullpen woes, and Bell’s experience as a set-up man make him versatile for those not necessarily searching for just a finisher. But Bell possesses a few warning signs for those seeking to acquire the three-time All-Star. Calling pitcher-friendly Petco Park home has certainly done wonders for Bell’s career, as Bell has a career 2.53 ERA in a San Diego uniform compared to a 4.92 mark while donning the blue-and-orange regalia for the Mets. Petco’s influence rears its head in Bell’s splits as well; from 2008 to 2010, Bell owned a 2.36 ERA at Petco against a 3.25 figure on the road. Additionally, Bell has historically seen a decline in the second half of the season, posting a 1.23 WHIP and 4.02 ERA in the late summer months opposed to a 1.19 WHIP and 2.48 ERA to start the season. Furthermore, Bell’s 6.57 K/9 ratio is well below last season’s 11.06 number, and his .274 BABIP illustrates that Bell has received a modest amount of luck this year. Bell could be sent to another pitcher’s paradise, but don’t be shocked if he doesn’t replicate his San Diego success in a new gig.
Andre Ethier
Ethier has made it known he’d rather be suiting up elsewhere, and the Dodgers’ dwindling rank in the standings, as well as the organization’s financial fiasco, may facilitate this request. This news would be welcomed with open arms by Ethier owners, considering the LA outfielder is hitting .287 at Chavez Ravine compared to a robust .340 on the road. A new home venue could also boost Ethier’s power production, as Dodger Stadium is surrendering the third-lowest run total in the majors in 2011, and is ranked 25th in home runs allowed. Ethier’s .371 BABIP may alarm some, but this stout figure stems from a 27.7 percent line drive percentage, second in the majors behind Joey Votto’s 27.8 grade. Additionally, Ethier has performed slightly better in the second-half, with a post All-Star line of .295/.381/.518 versus a .284/.354/.493 output the past three seasons. For those dangling the Silver Slugger in fantasy proposals, stick with Ethier as he may be on the brink of an offensive explosion.
Ubaldo Jimenez
Although he’s not a free agent at the end of the season, Jimenez’s name has recently emerged in various trade rumors. Jimenez would probably welcome an exodus out of the launching pad known as Coors Field, as his numbers illustrate a pitcher imprisoned in his own park. In nine games at home this season, Jimenez holds a bloated 6.24 ERA and 1.76 WHIP against a 2.28 ERA and 0.90 WHIP away from Denver. To further illustrate this disparity, Jimenez maintains a whopping 1.29 HR/9 ratio at Coors opposed to a 0.16 mark on the road. Jimenez is also striking out 2.29 more batters per nine innings outside of Colorado.
Many recall Jimenez baffling batters in 2010, and a glance at his numbers – 19-8, 2.88 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 214 strikeouts – would second this sentiment. The truth, however, tells a tale of two seasons for the Colorado ace. In the first half, Jimenez was unhittable, posting a 2.20 ERA and 1.05 WHIP on his way to a record of 15-1. But his performance following the All-Star Game was a different story, as Jimenez was human with a 3.80 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, winning just four more contests in 15 starts. After compiling a 5.86 ERA in his first nine starts of 2011, some speculated if Jimenez’s spring spectacle in 2010 was an aberration. However, Jimenez has appeared to right the ship, owning a 2.52 ERA in his last eight starts with 50 strikeouts in 53.2 innings of work.
Although he struggled in the second half of 2010, a move from hostile Coors Field can revitalize Jimenez into one of the game’s elite
Coco Crisp
Already exemplified by the exile of Ellis, Oakland is always one of the more active organizations near the trading deadline. Crisp will undoubtedly be dangled by the A’s, as his speed (58 steals in the past two seasons) and defensive prowess are two highly sought-after attributes. But a closer examination reveals that Crisp might not hold as much value away from O.co Coliseum. Crisp is batting .301 with a .359 OBP in Oakland, but those numbers drop to .240 and .277 on the road. While only playing 75 games due to injury in 2010, last season’s splits further augment this point, with Crips hitting .302 with a .374 OBP at home countered to a .255 away average and .305 OBP. In his defense, Crisp’s BABIP is .289, which is lower than his career average of .305. Additionally, Crisp’s strikeout percentage stands at a career-low 10.7 percent. Steals are a hot commodity on the fantasy market, but beware of a dip in production from Crisp if he exits the confines of the Coliseum.
Carlos Beltran
The departure of Rodriguez could signal the beginning of a fire sale in New York, and all signs point to Beltran as the next to exit. Early indications have Beltran slated to the Giants, with San Francisco closer Brian Wilson campaigning for Beltran’s acquirement at the All-Star Game. Infamous as a nightmare for hitters, the Giants’ AT&T Park is last in the league in runs and homers. Yet Beltran has had success in San Fran, hitting .310 with a .375 OBP in 22 career games in the stadium. If Beltran does not head to the Bay Area, the outcome could be a little bleaker. Beltran is batting .301 in Citi Field but just .272 on the road in 2011. Beltran does historically excel in the second half, with a career line of .289/.368/.514, and his line drive percentage of 20.4 is only the second time he’s reached in the 20s in the stat since joining the Mets. However, Beltran’s ultimate destination will determine his output for the rest of the season.
