Breathe in and breathe out.
The innate task should be as simple as drafting Chris Johnson as a top tier fantasy running back and Peyton Manning as a top tier fantasy quarterback.
Instead, fantasy owners who held on to either in a keeper league or drafted either in early August are gasping for air.
I would like to enter CJ2K’s holdout and Manning’s neck injury into evidence as exhibits A and B. They are, at least for the immediate future, fantasy football collateral damage stemming from the NFL lockout.
If it was business as usual for the NFL the past offseason, Manning would have received the tender, loving, care he obviously needed from Colts’ team doctors and Johnson would have sat down with Titans’ brass to hammer out a deal months ago.
Regardless, the abbreviated offseason, full of training camps, team meetings, physical therapy sessions, scrimmages, games, and off the field financial discussions have been squeezed into a 30-day window of opportunity.
Manning and CJ require more time to heal and deal and now their fantasy draft stock is beginning to take some hits.
Let’s start with Manning. As I explained in a recent Fantasy Buzz Blog, the Colts’ electing to drag Kerry Collins and his grizzled-white beard out of retirement was all a fantasy owner needed to know about the current health status of Indy’s iron man.
If Manning is out of commission week one and his consecutive games streak comes to an end, there won’t be a rush to bring him back in week two. With the assumption of Collins starting behind center in those two games, the fantasy values of Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Pierre Garcon and the like also get nicked.
According to the FOXSports.com fantasy football average draft position data, Manning is currently coming off the board as the fifth quarterback overall behind Drew Brees and ahead of Philip Rivers. I believe Rivers (4710 pass yards, 30 TDs and 13 INTs in 2010) could and should leap frog Manning if his neck injury status remains vague.
Remember, even if you draft Manning and he returns in week two or three, you have to ask yourself is the risk worth the reward if he encounters a setback in his recovery. If you answer is yes, it’s worth the risk, be sure to draft a backup fantasy quarterback early.
Where would you rank Chris Johnson if he signed tomorrow? Before you answer consider these fantasy facts:
• CJ and Matt Hasselbeck still need to get acquainted. The Titans new quarterback had issues picking up the play calls earlier this camp and the “hey, sorry I’m late” excuse isn’t going to make the transition any smoother heading into the regular season.
• CJ and Mike Munchak/Chris Palmer also need to get acquainted. The tardiness wouldn’t be as extreme had Kerry Collins and Jeff Fisher returned in 2011, but Tennessee has overhauled the roster and coaching staff, which hasn’t been able to work with Johnson over the last month and get him up to speed. CJ has talent, but even the best need to know the playbook.
• Javon Ringer is licking his chops. The second-stringer out of Michigan State has shown some explosive ability out of the backfield in a limited role the last two seasons. This “handcuff” is coming off the board a few rounds earlier now.
Not to be outshined, rookie running back Jamie Harper has made a late preseason push for playing time, too. Heaven help us if we've already evolved from the running back by committee to the handcuff by committee in Tennessee.
• Johnson’s 2010 numbers were down. From 2006 rushing yards in 2009 to 1364 in 2010, 14 rush touchdowns down to 11 and 503 receiving yards down to 245. With a new quarterback and head coach in Nashville, are fantasy owners to expect CJ to return to 2009 form with little to no practice? Even Allen Iverson thinks Johnson needs to report to camp.
As for Johnson’s fantasy stock, his average draft position remains third overall, but he’s fallen behind dual-threat running backs LeSean McCoy and Ray Rice on my board. Maurice Jones-Drew, Rashard Mendenhall and Michael Turner are close to pushing CJ out of my top ten.
