Making the Grade, which will run through the 2016 Belmont Stakes, focuses on the winners of the big races, usually from the previous weekend, who could impact the next Triple Crown. We'll be taking a close look at impressive winners and evaluating their chances to win classic races based upon ability, running style, connections (owner, trainer, jockey) and pedigree.
Here's a look at 2015 Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Juvenile victor Nyquist, winner of the $200,000 San Vicente Stakes on Feb. 15 at Santa Anita Park.
Nyquist won the Eclipse Award as champion 2-year-old male after an unbeaten 2-year-old season. Sometimes precocious juveniles struggle to continue to perform at elite levels at three as other horses catch up to them developmentally, but Nyquist looked as good as ever with a dominant win in the San Vicente. Nyquist is named after National Hockey League player Gustav Nyquist, a right wing for the Detroit Red Wings. Let's take a look at what makes him a special colt.
Ability: Nyquist looked like a potential monster in winning his debut and subsequently reeled off four straight graded stakes wins in 2015, capped by a half-length win in the Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Juvenile on Oct. 31 at Keeneland Race Course. The 17-point drop in Equibase Speed Figure from a 109 in the 6½-furlong Best Pal Stakes to a 92 for winning the 1 1/16-mile FrontRunner Stakes raised some concern about his ability when stretching out for longer races, but he was impressive visually and on paper in winning the Juvenile as he jumped back up to a 102 speed figure and ultimately nailed down champion 2-year-old male honors.
Trainer Doug O'Neill opted to start Nyquist's path to the Kentucky Derby in 2016 with a sprint and the bay colt sizzled in the seven-eighths of a mile San Vicente, winning by 1½ lengths over highly regarded Exaggerator in a spritely 1:20.71 (the track record at Santa Anita for that distance is 1:19.70). Nyquist didn't need the points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifying system with 30 already in the bank and coming off the San Vicente figures to be razor sharp for his next race.
With six wins in as many starts, speed figures among the best of his generation and an abundance of speed, the talent is undoubtedly there for Nyquist to make an impact on the Triple Crown trail.
Running style: Nyquist was on or very near the pace in each of his first four wins but he showed a new dimension after he was bumped hard at the start of the Juvenile. Eighth after a half-mile, Nyquist was wide on both turns but still managed to close powerfully to keep his unblemished record intact. Nyquist showed versatility in the Juvenile and that he could overcome trouble and win in a big field, which is valuable to know before targeting a race like the Kentucky Derby.
It's also positive that Nyquist has plenty of speed, which he showed again in the San Vicente when pressing from second. When facing smaller fields in prep races or against 19 other horses in the Kentucky Derby, Nyquist can utilize that speed to keep himself out of trouble, gain good position and provide regular rider Mario Gutierrez with options.
Connections: Nyquist shares the same connections as 2012 Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes winner I'll Have Another. He is owned by J. Paul Reddam and trained by Doug O'Neill. I'll Have Another's jockey Mario Gutierrez also has been aboard for all six of Nyquist's races.
Dennis O'Neill, Doug O'Neill's brother, picked out both I'll Have Another and Nyquist from 2-year-olds in training sales. He landed I'll Have Another for $35,000 out of the 2011 OBS spring sale of 2-year-olds in training. Nyquist was purchased for $400,000 at the Fasig-Tipton Florida sale of selected 2-year-olds in training.
Reddam has raced Thoroughbreds since he claimed his first horse in 1998. He previously won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile in 2004 with Wilko, whom he owned in partnership. Nyquist gave him a second Breeders' Cup Juvenile win and his third overall at the World Championships. He also won the Breeders' Cup Turf in 2006 with Red Rocks. Reddam is the president of CashCall, a finance lending company.
Doug O'Neill took out his trainer's license in 1994 and earned his fifth Breeders' Cup win with Nyquist. O'Neill won the 2005 Breeders' Cup Juvenile with Stevie Wonderboy, the 2006 Sprint with Thor's Echo, the inaugural Filly and Mare Sprint in 2007 with Maryfield and both the 2013 and 2014 Dirt Mile with Goldencents. For years, O'Neill was best known as the trainer of superstar gelding Lava Man. O'Neill claimed Lava Man for $50,000 and he went on to win seven Grade 1 races and earn more than $5-million in O'Neill's care.
Gutierrez, a native of Mexico, became a household name as the jockey of I'll Have Another during his 2012 Triple Crown run that featured wins in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. Gutierrez, 29, has amassed more than 940 wins and 110 stakes wins since he took out his jockey's license in 2006.
Pedigree: Nyquist is from the first crop of 2010 champion 2-year-old male Uncle Mo, who was like greased lightning on the racetrack as a 2-year-old when winning his three starts by a combined margin of 23 ¼ lengths. He earned an unfathomable 123 Equibase Speed Figure for winning the 2010 Juvenile at Churchill Downs and from a speed-figure perspective is arguably the fastest juvenile in recent history. Uncle Mo did not win any of the Triple Crown races at three but he did have a pair of blistering races in 2011, earning a 120 speed figure for his runner-up finish in the Grade 1 King's Bishop Stakes at seven-eighths of a mile and a 123 for winning the one-mile Kelso Handicap.
Uncle Mo has four graded stakes winners from his first crop, including Grade 1 Darley Alcibiades Stakes winner Gomo as well as Lecomte Stakes winner and Derby hopeful Mo Tom. He's off to a remarkable start as a stallion. The big concern is distance as Uncle Mo never won a race longer than 1 1/16 miles, so it will be interesting to see if his runners can go a bit farther than their sire.
Nyquist is clearly talented, but there remain serious concerns regarding how far he can carry his speed. Of course, I had similar concerns about American Pharoah coming into 2015 and he won the Triple Crown. It just goes to show that talent trumps all when it comes to evaluating racehorses. A special talent can often accomplish extraordinary things.
