Mailbag: Don’t count on the Gators

Mailbag: Don’t count on the Gators

Published Sep. 6, 2012 9:51 p.m. ET

Fox on the Fifty’s weekly mailbag will run every Thursday throughout the season, focusing on the SEC, ACC and Conference USA. To submit your question or comment, tweet or e-mail Zach Dillard (@Zach_Dillard) or send us a note on any of our company’s Twitter and Facebook accounts.


On Saturday, when the Georgia Bulldogs are bombarded with a chorus of boos inside Missouri’s stadium – "The Zou," as Gary Pinkel likes to call it – fans dressed in gold and black will swear they are stitching significant alterations onto the SEC contest's very fabric with their voices alone.

In fact, they’ve already started.

While running a live chat for a studio show last night, the juxtaposition of Missouri and Georgia fans struck me as both amusing and mildly ridiculous. The argument has been perpetuated on social media websites ever since Missouri accepted its invitation into the Southeastern Conference and the schedules were subsequently revealed. Tiger fans truly believe – with every inch of their Midwestern-style fandom – once Georgia is within their confines, within shouting distance, that the Bulldogs’ talent advantage will disappear.

Georgia fans scoff at this idea, although they would undoubtedly adopt a similar opinion if LSU or Alabama visited Sanford Stadium this weekend. It is in our very nature to buy stock in our own personal powers. Hell, I think that whenever I take my talents into the stands, or TAKE IT TO THE STREETS, as we like to say in the press box. (No one says this in the press box.) And perhaps there in some truth behind that notion. After all, the other pivotal SEC game this weekend will take place at Texas A&M’s Kyle Field, also known as “The 12th Man.”

Nicknames are neat. Rarely do they swing the pendulum, though.

Texas A&M will not win because of ROTC members whooping out, “Howdy!” If the Aggies pull off their first SEC win, it will be because of Kevin Sumlin’s new scheme and Florida’s shaky quarterback situation.

Regardless of how maniacal Missouri fans attest their gameday atmosphere will be – and trust them, it’s going to be “insane, bro” – Georgia’s suspended defensive starters and James Franklin will play a much bigger role scoreboard-wise. Atmospheres across the country can border along the lines of bedlam prior to game time, but numerous examples exist where the home team could not capitalize. As Dawgpost’s Dean Legge pointed out last night, he remembers the fever pitch in Athens before the Georgia-Alabama game in 2008, and that didn’t go exactly as planned for the raucous crowd.

Fanatics are fanatics for fanatical purposes. But coaches and, mainly, players decide the outcomes.

With that being said, I believe one of the two SEC newcomers comes out with a win on Saturday. And it’s going to be mildly insane, bro.

Now onto this week's mail… 




Tyler Donaldson (via Facebook: Will Alabama start Yeldon or Lacy against W Kentucky?

Coach Nick Saban said in his post-practice press conference yesterday (after voicing his frustration concerning the media’s exultation of his team) that all but one player practiced Wednesday. Eddie Lacy was not that guy. Given Saban’s approach, I would assume that Lacy starts again this weekend against Western Kentucky. However, if I were him and Lacy were still not 100 percent, I'd have no qualms about starting freshman T.J. Yeldon. 
But I am strictly guessing Saban lets Lacy give it a go, just because he can.

Lost in the Yeldon Yuproar – warranted as it is, the frosh looked phenomenal against then-No. 8 Michigan – was that Lacy did not have a terrible game. He rushed for 36 yards on nine carries, including a nine-yard touchdown run. Now, no one can be positive if the junior is back to full strength, but the fact that he’s practicing would seem to imply that he will be out there for the team’s home opener. 
Not that any of this matters.

Saban’s liberal use of his running backs will likely yield to the hot hand throughout the season, as the Crimson Tide feature four backs capable of carrying the load behind that bruising offensive line. Lacy and Yeldon can play, but so can Jalston Fowler (averaged 8.4 yards per carry against the Wolverines). And don’t fall asleep on freshman Dee Hart, a home run threat who rushed for 19 yards in his debut – he would likely start for half the teams in the SEC.

The point is that the Crimson Tide’s starter will not matter near as much this season. It will be who finishes the game. Will there be any one running back with Heisman-type numbers? Probably not. But you can expect the team's average to hover around the 230-something yards they rushed for on Brady Hoke’s defense. The offensive line is that good. The backs are that explosive. And, if A.J. McCarron and the passing game can continue to pose enough of a threat, this offense might be one of the toughest to stop week in and week out.

So I’ll assume Lacy starts … but it will not matter, especially against the Hilltoppers. They could put Kirby Smart back there and hang a century on them. 


Brian Boles What do.you think about Florida winning the sec champ in the next 2-3 years? 

I don’t loathe this idea, but I certainly do not love it either, especially after watching Will Muschamp’s second season get off to such an awful start against Bowling Green. Are we sold on this man being a great head coach? Do we believe this program is trending up or down right now? 

I’m not sure Florida fans actually have an answer for those questions, especially not Spencer Hall from Every Day Should Be Saturday.

But here are a few factors to consider:

Recruiting. It all starts with talent, and the Gators – judging by Scout.com’s recruiting rankings – should have plenty of it. If we are looking two years down the road, to the 2014 season, then we are talking about redshirt seniors from the 2010 class, seniors from the 2011 class and so on. Urban Meyer brought in the top recruiting class in the country in 2010, but most of the biggest names (Sharrif Floyd, Ronald Powell, Matt Elam) played early and therefore will not be available in 2014.

So we move on to the 2011 class, which was affected by the departure of Meyer, finishing 26th in the country. However, this class did yield one of the two quarterbacks who are likely to be under center for the Gators two years down the road: Jeff Driskel and Jacoby Brissett. Do you feel confident either of those guys can run through the SEC East and take down what is likely to still be Alabama or LSU? I don’t. Not yet. 
The talent will continue to flow in (5th-best class in 2012, 11th-best class so far through this recruiting cycle), but until that translates onto the field, it’s a big leap.Also, keep in mind, Alabama, LSU, Georgia, Auburn and even South Carolina will continue to stock up on talent as well.

Coaching. Will Muschamp is about as unproven as head coaches come in the SEC, so this is a great unknown. Saban, Steve Spurrier, Les Miles and Gene Chizik have all won national championships. Mark Richt and Gary Pinkel have been winning at a high level for a long time. Even Dan Mullen has proven he can win at a lower-tier conference school. 
I’d place Muschamp in the Kevin Sumlin, James Franklin and Hugh Freeze category … we’ve seen flashes in previous seasons or at other programs, but the jury is still out. (And yes, I’d put Derek Dooley, John L. Smith and Joker Phillips lower down the totem pole at this point. I believe we've seen enough of their body of work to say that.)

If I were a Florida supporter, I surely have not seen enough to believe Muschamp will be fist-pumping on the sidelines of a BCS Championship in the immediate future. A road game against Texas A&M this weekend would be a nice step in that direction, though.

Schedule. Here’s where the real problem kicks in. Not only will the Gators need to improve from last season’s 7-6 record (and last Saturday’s Bowling Green game), but they will need to do so in exponential proportions given their future slate of games.

The SEC East was down last season and still Florida finished 3-5 in conference games. This is largely due to playing back-to-back-to-back-back games against Alabama, LSU, Auburn and Georgia, respectively, in the middle of the year. Do not expect those rough patches to simply disappear in the future. 

The Gators drew LSU as its cross-division rival under the conference's new scheduling format. And unless that changes -- "I just think it creates a competitive inequity in the whole league,” LSU athletic director Joe Alleva said. And he has a point. – then that’s a battle every single season other SEC East teams will largely avoid. The general consensus is that the SEC East will only get better, not worse. All of this fails to mention the growing support behind adding a ninth game to the conference slate.

And then there’s the end-of-the-season rivalry game against Florida State, a team that is on the rise under coach Jimbo Fisher. Does that sound like an easy schedule to pull off a miracle turnaround under an unproven head coach with equal, or even lesser, talent than his more proven counterparts?

MAYBE, RIGHT!?

Anything is possible, or so Kevin Garnett believes. So maybe there is hope for your Gators down the road, Brian.

But don’t let those hopes spiral out of control. It may not look like it on a map, but disappointment can feel like a freefall even in a swamp.

But hey, cheer up … there are always those glory years.


Theories & Thoughts: If you haven't seen this short documentary on former LSU safety and baseball player Chad Jones, you must. Incredible story ... Jadeveon Clowney's hands could possibly be hiding WMDs. I know this because I walked off Dudley Field with him following the Vandy-South Carolina game and one was all but suffocating an entire Chick-fil-A bag (sandwich and fries included) … Clemson's Brent Venables has the hoarse, menacing voice one would expect of a cliche defensive coordinator. Dabo Swinney called him a "caged animal" for a reason: He's a John Clayton haircut away from being cast for Sons of Anarchy … Brian VanGorder's mustache could survive any apocalyptic scenario … Nick Saban took some post-practice frustrations out on the media, so I'm sure his locker room speech went something like this … Admit it: No one wants to be caught in a staring contest with Mark Dantonio where the loser is the first one to cry … Larry Fedora's season-long Red Bull count: 73 ... I'm taking Savannah State (with the points) ALL DAY this weekend … Some higher powers must have been busy watching other games last Saturday since Todd Graham was allowed to win his debut at Arizona State … I'm taking my alma mater, Georgia, on the road to Missouri this weekend, 34-17. 'The Zou' doesn't scare me (yet). But then again, it is just Thursday … Le'Veon Bell might star in the sequel to this commercial.

Until next time, people.
Enjoy your weekend. High Five.

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