Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: Let's optimize a Jered Weaver pitching schedule

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 11:13 p.m. ET

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Jered Weaver is already having his spring velocity scrutinized. Weaver himself doesn't want to answer questions about it, and he's issued frequent reminders that there are more important things than fastball speed, and he's right. Weaver has never lit up the radar gun, and he's still toward the front of a big-league rotation, even though he's dropping into the mid-80s. Location trumps everything, and Weaver is a location pitcher. If he can locate, he'll be fine.

But there's no denying the bigger truth here. Weaver has been progressively losing strength, and he no longer seems like the ace he used to be. With his max velocity dropping, he's working with a reduced margin of error, and the result is that Weaver's become more vulnerable. Earlier in his career, he worked to conquer his vulnerabilities. Now he's got new ones, and at 32, it's not like he's still ascending toward his peak. At this point, Weaver is still a perfectly fine starter on a contending team, but it's worth thinking about how he's used. He isn't a guy you can expect to be successful in any situation. He isn't a Clayton Kershaw. He isn't a Corey Kluber. He isn't the old Jered Weaver.

The Angels' intention is to get back to the playoffs. They're plenty good enough, and some of their division rivals have taken a step back. Odds are, the Angels and Mariners will be going neck and neck in the AL West, and so any little advantage might end up mattering. Weaver is going to be one of the Angels' five starters. One thing they could do is just run him out there every five days, no matter what. But what if Weaver were more carefully managed? What if we were to try to optimize a Jered Weaver pitching schedule?

If Weaver were just any old guy, I don't think it would be that big a deal. But there are things about him, things worth keeping in mind. See, Weaver, historically, has loved pitching in Anaheim. That's not unusual -- the ballpark plays pitcher-friendly. But Weaver's been somewhat extreme. Over his career, he's allowed 2.9 runs per nine innings at home, against 4.0 runs per nine innings on the road. Over just the last five years, the gap is 2.5 against 3.8. Weaver gives up a lot of fly balls, and when he's pitching at home, the overwhelming majority of those fly balls just die. On the road, they've been a lot more likely to get over a fence.

With Weaver, then, you want him pitching at home. Beyond that, if at all possible, you want him pitching at home in sunny matinees. It seems like his delivery makes the ball difficult for lefties to pick up. And speaking of lefties -- Weaver's seen a lot more of them over time. Some of this is just the context of his opponents, but some is also the perception of increased vulnerability. Weaver has been most vulnerable against lefties on the road. His home/road splits are predominantly due to his performances against left-handed hitters.

With a few things in mind, I've tried to come up with a good season pitching schedule. I downloaded the Angels' schedule from their website and then I went to town, although I tried to stay mostly realistic, even though the experiment is purely theoretical. There was no way to just start Weaver in home games. What I came up with involves a few skipped or delayed starts, but there's nothing too crazy, and Weaver's still lined up for 32 games. I think he'd be willing to go along with this, as long as it were explained why this could help Weaver and the Angels out. It could be in the team's best interests.

I know that trying to optimize Weaver's schedule means I'm probably not optimizing the other schedules. But Weaver, I think, most calls for attempted optimization. He's best positioned to take advantage of his home ballpark. No other Angels starter has his blend of contact and balls in the air. When situations arise, I figure Nick Tropeano and Andrew Heaney would be available for spot starts. As foolish as it is to map out a whole season of pitching in March, I'll wait no longer. Here's what I came up with:

Big table! I know. Believe me, I know, but I couldn't think of a better way to present this. You don't need to absorb everything in there. Really, you don't need to absorb anything in there. But I'm going to summarize some of the important details.

There are three little "hiccups." One between the second and third start, one between the 11th and 12th (team game Nos. 52 and 59), and one between the 22nd and 23rd (team game Nos. 107 and 114). Otherwise, it's normal. I know no pitcher wants to ever be thrown off a routine, but I came into this with a mission, and I tried to see it through. We're looking at 32 Jered Weaver starts, with 19 of them taking place in Anaheim. Put differently, that's 59 percent home starts, against a career mark a little below 50 percent. With six more starts at home than on the road, you figure that's saving Weaver at least a couple dingers.

Even better, of those home starts, six would be in matinees. At present, the Angels have just 11 home matinees scheduled, so Weaver would be getting a break. I know this is already kind of folded into his historical performance at home, but there really does seem to be something there. Weaver's delivery seems to hide the ball from lefties, with the outfield rockpile in the background. It's a little edge, on top of a little edge.

Because there are 19 home starts, that means there are still 13 road starts. And there's just no escaping some difficult ones. You can't skip Weaver for every tough assignment, if for no other reason than Weaver wouldn't be OK with it. But the road schedule could be worse. For example, there's no Yankee Stadium. There's Boston, but Fenway is kinder to right-handed fly balls than left-handed fly balls. It's no treat to have to face the Orioles on the road, but the only alternative to that was facing the Blue Jays on the road. A couple of the road starts are in West Coast, NL ballparks. There is one in Texas, but then there's only one in Texas, and according to recent evidence, the jetstream blowing out to right field has been just about eliminated. So it's not the launching pad it used to be.

Maybe most conspicuously, Weaver would start on the road against the Mariners three times. The Mariners are supposed to be pretty good, and Safeco Field is a lot nicer to lefties than it is to righties. However, Safeco is overall still a pitcher-friendly environment, and all three of those starts would be night games, when the ball doesn't fly as well. One would be in April, when the ball has historically just died in front of the track.

I probably don't need to go over every single game. We've got Weaver making the majority of his starts at home. His road ballparks average out to be slightly pitcher-friendly, and slightly suppressive of left-handed power. It's not all perfect, but there was no way to make it perfect. This way, Weaver might face the softest schedule possible. We're not talking about the difference between a 5.00 ERA and a 3.00 ERA, but we are probably talking about an actual number of runs, runs Weaver doesn't need to allow. In his diminished state, he can still be effective, but he could be protected. It would make the Angels a little better.

I'm not going to pretend like this is all that realistic. And one injury could very well throw everything out of whack. But, Jered Weaver isn't himself anymore, and the Angels want to make the playoffs with him on the staff. There are ways to get the most out of him. I really don't see the harm in trying.

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