Melvin Gordon and Marcus Mariota may as well start planning their weekend in New York City. Where they'll stay, where they'll eat, whether or not to see a Broadway production (hint: hit the TKTS booth) and what to wear for the traditional Heisman finalists photos in front of the Rockerfeller Center Christmas tree.
The only question heading into Monday's 5 p.m. ET voting deadline, is who will join the Wisconsin running back and Oregon quarterback at the ceremony?
There is no set number of finalists, with invitations handed out based on the natural break in the points tallied. A year ago, that meant six players; in 2012 it was three. Over the past 20 years, there have been an average of four players in attendance, though that's happened just four times since 2000, with the last coming in 2010 when Cam Newton won.
In lieu of breaking down the players who will rise and fall in the race, this week's Heisman Forecast is centered on who'll be seated in Times Square's Best Buy Theater. With all due respect to Arizona linebacker Scooby Wright, who is the nation's best defender, and Indiana's 2,000-yard rusher Tevin Coleman, it all appears to boil down to five possibilities.
So who's in and who's out? Here are the Forecaster's predictions:
He hasn't been his sharpest of late, as Boykin has thrown an interception in the past two weeks vs. lowly Kansas and Texas. But he's the poster boy of the Horned Frogs' potential run to the College Football Playoff and at the helm of the nation's third-ranked scoring offense (46.1 pg), Boykin is responsible for 204 points (eighth in FBS) and in five games against ranked opponents he's averaged 356.3 yards of offense, 37.5 more than Mariota. A final regular-season game against 2-9 Iowa State isn't going to clinch it, but Boykin can at least rack up some obscene numbers to make the most of an oh-so-important final opportunity to impressive voters, which we'll get into in further detail with our next contender ...
THE FORECASTER SAYS: IN
The case for Barrett is strong. He picked up the pieces after Braxton Miller's season-ending injury and put the Buckeyes in position to be a playoff team. The numbers also are impressive as he has two more TDs through 12 games than Johnny Manziel's 43 when he won in 2012, and in the Big Ten's long history, no one has been responsible for more TDs than Barrett with 45. Archie Griffin, the only two-time winner (and, of course, a Buckeye) once told me he didn't take championship weekend into consideration, saying he would cast his ballot once everyone played the same amount of games. However, the vast majority of voters -- this one included -- don't subscribe to that same notion, with five of the past six winners playing on the final weekend of the season. We're talking about just making the ceremony and not winning and if No. 5 Ohio State flounders without Barrett against No. 13 Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship, it may underscore the QB's worth. But here's thinking his not playing keeps Barrett from delivering the kind of statement that would get him to the ceremony.
THE FORECASTER SAYS: OUT
As previously stated in this space, a wide receiver hasn't made the ceremony since Larry Fitzgerald in 2003, which also happens to be the highest finish of any pass-catcher who didn't also return kicks. Cooper ranks second in the FBS in receiving yards (1,573), second in yards per game (131.1) and fourth in receptions per game (8.6), and in facing five ranked opponents he's compiled 46 catches for 626 yards and seven TDs, punctuated by a 13-reception, 224-yard, three-score day vs. Auburn in the Iron Bowl. Unless he's shut down by a Missouri defense that already has allowed 125 yards and two TDs on five catches to Texas A&M's Josh Reynolds, Cooper should take Fitzgerald's spot as a trivia question.
THE FORECASTER SAYS: IN
Prescott brought the Bulldogs from unranked to No. 1 in the nation and in line to challenge for an at-large playoff berth up until last weekend's blowout loss at the hands of Ole Miss. He's a Maxwell Award finalist (the others are Gordon and Mariota), which bodes well considering of the 30, 27 made the Heisman ceremony. He's been responsible for an SEC-high 36 TDs, but his standing faded in losses to Alabama and Ole Miss and he also shares the South voting region with Cooper. If we're to believe most voters are going to have Gordon and Mariota on their ballots, a choice of Cooper vs. Prescott seems easy enough.
THE FORECASTER SAYS: OUT
He's the real wild card. As previously mentioned, this is all about the natural break in the voting, but in 2009 Tim Tebow was a finalist despite finishing fifth and sitting 425 points behind fourth-place Ndaumkong Suh. Meanwhile, sixth-place C.J. Spiller and Tebow were separated by 167 points, but the Clemson running back didn't make the trip. The point? Tebow was good TV, hence he was in New York. Frankly, if Winston didn't have so much controversy surrounding him, he'd be a shoo-in, but the Heisman Trust may opt to avoid any troubling interviews with Winston on the heels of his student conduct hearing and given the opinion most Heisman Watchers have, he isn't expected to generate enough support to force the subject. On the flip side, as a winner it's well within the Florida State QB's rights to appear of his own accord.
THE FORECASTER SAYS: OUT
