There are few things in a Heisman Trophy victory as key as dominating your own backyard.
In the award's 78-year history, just four times has a winner not claimed the voting region in which he played in, with the last instance coming in 1992, when Miami's Gino Torretta finished behind Georgia's Garrison Hearst in the South.
Being a strong precursor to the winning the entire vote, that regional spotlight puts the attention on one district more than any other in this year’s race.
Balloting is broken down into six regions, and while the vast majority have a defined top contender -- Oregon's Marcus Mariota in the Far West, the Mid-Atlantic's Tajh Boyd (Clemson), Ohio State's Braxton Miller of the Midwest and the Southwest with Texas A&M's Johnny Manziel (the Northwest is the only one without a viable candidate) -- the South has a litany of them.
Made up of voters in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi and Tennessee, the region has Teddy Bridgewater (Louisville), AJ McCarron (Alabama), Zach Mettenberger (LSU), Aaron Murray (Georgia) and Jameis Winston (Florida State).
You could legitimately make a case for a number of them to lead the South right now, a luxury that could be a problem come December -- and, unfortunately, things could get even more convoluted.
Winston -- whose Seminoles play No. 25 Maryland this week and then face No. 3 Clemson after a two-week hiatus -- and Mettenberger -- he gets four ranked opponents in the next six games -- would seem to have the most opportunities to help their cases in the coming weeks.
But could either rise above the proven commodities? There's McCarron, the poster boy of the defending two-time national champion Crimson Tide; Murray, who has averaged 310 yards in three outings vs. top-10 teams; and Bridgewater, third in FBS in both TD passes (14) and pass efficiency (204.7).
Georgia running back Todd Gurley is likely out after suffering a left ankle injury vs. LSU that limited him to a half and he's listed as day-to-day heading into Saturday's trip to Tennessee -- but his dropping out doesn't offer much in the way clarity.
It remains to be seen if the region can deliver a fourth winner in seven years and with the amount of candidates, it wouldn't be out of the question to see a South winner not claim the region. But watching a true leading contender emerge from the district figures to be one of the most intriguing aspects of the next two months for us Heismanphiles. If the region can put itself in
Before we look at who is rising and who is falling in the race to New York, here's a look at how things stack up after Week 5.
1. Marcus Mariota, QB Oregon, RS Soph.
2. Tajh Boyd, QB Clemson, RS Sr.
3. Aaron Murray, QB Georgia, RS Sr.
McCarron may have the biggest win of the season, going toe-to-toe with Manziel in College Station, but no player in this race has been tested more heading into the first games of October than Murray. He shined against then-No. 6 LSU (298 yards and five total TDs) and then-sixth-ranked South Carolina (309 yards and four TDs), with the only blemish coming vs. Clemson (No. 8 at the time), when he still threw for 323 yards and ran in a score. Murray sits just 573 yards behind Tim Tebow for the SEC's career yardage record of 12,232 and the road is about to get easier with only one ranked opponent (No. 18 Florida) left on the regular-season schedule, beginning Saturday vs. Tennessee.
He's been impressive in his first four games as a Seminole, throwing for 1,048 yards and 12 TDs and he's completed passes at a 73.6 percent clip. But Winston has faced defenses that are ranked 57th (Pitt), 83rd (Boston College) and 113th (Nevada), along with FCS opponent Bethune-Cookman. On paper, No. 25 Maryland presents a major step up in competition, as it has FBS' sixth-ranked defense and is tied for the national lead with 17 sacks behind senior linebacker Marcus Whitfield (5 1/2). The Terrapins haven't truly been challenged either, taking on just one QB in the top 100 in pass efficiency -- UConn's Chandler Whitmer, who is 92nd -- but present Winston with a chance to climb up the rankings if he can produce another dominant outing.
The Forecast had previously penciled running back Lache Seastrunk, who is on pace for 1,668 yards and 24 TDs, as the Bears most logical candidate. Petty is testing that theory as he leads the nation in pass efficiency (239.5) and is fifth in passing yards per game (333.7). While he's thrown just eight TDs and trails FBS' leader, Oregon State's Sean Mannion by 13 in that department, Petty has played in three games to Mannion's five. While this week's opponent, West Virginia, is coming off a win over the-No. 11 Oklahoma State, the Cowboys' J.W. Walsh still passes for 322 yards in that game. Petty and the country's No. 1 passing offense (444.3 ypg) could go off vs. the Mountaineers.
He remains the most visible player on a team that is the favorite to win another national title, which even if he has a few clunkers, should still get him to New York. That being said, McCarron failed to take advantage of the spotlight vs. Ole Miss, throwing for 180 yards and he went without a TD pass for the first time in 12 games and RB T.J. Yeldon stole the spotlight (121 yards and a TD on 17 carries). It's unlikely McCarron plays much this week against Georgia State and he could sit late against Kentucky, Arkansas and Tennessee -- all of whom will be heavy underdogs vs. the Tide -- the three weeks after that. He'll stay in the mix, but McCarron won't truly have a chance to help his cause until Nov. 9 vs. No. 10 LSU.
The nation's leader at 151.8 ypg, Sankey has shown he can be a workhorse with games of 25, 35 and a school-record 40 carries so far this season. But he hasn't seen a rush defense ranked higher than 57th (Arizona), and while Stanford's is 21st (105 per), the Cardinal have stepped it up in Pac-12 play, allowing 50 yard to Arizona State and 52 vs. Washington State the last two times out. Further increasing the degree of difficult for Sankey: Shayne Skov and Stanford have allowed one runner to hit the 100-yard mark in their last nine Pac-12 games.
While Braxton Miller was sensational in Ohio State's win over Wisconsin, he missed the previous two games and most of a third game. As previously stated, missing one game put him in a bad spot, but more than that would bring an end to his hopes of winning. Meanwhile, amid Miller's resurgence, Wisconsin RB Melvin Gordon saw his campaign fall flat vs. the Buckeyes with 74 yards on 15 carries in the biggest game of his season. Add those slip ups to Michigan's Devin Gardner not appearing Heisman-esque for a month now and the Big Ten looks like it will go a sixth straight year without a winner after claiming five trophies in the 16 years between Desmond Howard (1991) and Troy Smith (2007).
