One of the oddest Heisman Trophy races in recent memory is moving toward
only one possible conclusion -- though it's doing so with
caution.
In any other circumstances, Jameis Winston
would win in a landslide. But the allegations surrounding the Florida
State quarterback create the only seed of doubt in these proceedings --
and that's as much a testament to how good Winston has been and the
worthiness of the other contenders.
Contender after
contender have stumbled by their play or blows to their narrative,
leaving few realistic options to truly challenge Winston's
lead.
Still, the mere threat of everything
surrounding Winston leads to the chance that this could be the closest
race since Mark Ingram beat Toby Gerhart by 28 points in 2009. It may
also give us as many as six finalists -- which are decided by the most
natural break in the voting figures -- something that hasn't happened
since 1994.
It's a potentially muddled vote that
forces us to wonder: What if? What if, by either charges levied against
him or the threat of them, pollsters don't side with Winston? Who else
could win?
Herewith, a look at the players outside of
Winston who have the best chance to hoist the trophy on Dec. 14 in
Times Square, why they could win and why the couldn't (listed in order
of probability). But before we begin, here is how the voting would
likely go if the season were to end
today.
1. Jameis Winston, QB Florida State,
RS Fr.
2. Jordan Lynch, QB Northern Illinois, RS
Sr.
3. AJ McCarron, QB Alabama, RS
Sr.
As always, these insights aren't a look
into my official ballot, but how based on long-held unwritten rules and
voting trends, things should shake out.
The entire push behind
McCarron was his being the embodiment of the Crimson Tide's run toward
another perfect season and a third consecutive
championship.
That's all but out the window after a
loss to Auburn that kept Alabama out of the SEC title game, but McCarron
remains a factor because he does still embody something voters can get
behind -- especially those looking to get around the Winston
mess.
McCarron remains the safe pick. His numbers,
2,676 yards passing and 26 TDs, are nowhere near the averages that we've
expected out of QBs in this era (4,500 total yards and 48 TDs), but if
character comes into the equation, McCarron will be lauded as the winner
the Heisman needs.
Furthering his cause, the loss to
Auburn wasn't on him. McCarron threw for 277 yards and three TDs,
including a 99-yarder that in that instance looked like his Heisman
moment.
That defeat was the last impression McCarron
left voters with and if Winston isn't hurt by the ongoing investigation,
McCarron would likely finish third, with Lynch second. Alabama is in
the same voting region (South) as Florida State, making it difficult for
McCarron to carry those votes. But if there is an anti-Winston
sentiment, especially in his own backyard, McCarron would seem to be the
most logical choice.
It ultimately could see him
challenge for the award ahead of a player who is battling perceptions in
...
Lynch could make for an
interesting argument, not only by putting the Huskies in a second
straight BCS game, but he stands just 245 rushing yards from becoming
the first player in history with 2,000 on the ground and through the
air. That should get him a seat in New York -- the MAC's first since
Chad Pennington in 1999 -- and he has an opportunity to make a statement
in the conference's title game against Bowling Green on Friday
night.
That last chance to impress voters is
something that no leading candidate outside of Winston can
boast.
But what's playing against Lynch is whom he
plays for.
No player from a non-BCS conference school
has won since Ty Detmer in 1990. San Diego State's Marshall Faulk has
the only top-two finish in the 23 years post-Detmer and while Hawaii's
Colt Brennan was third in 2007, he received just five percent of the
first-place votes that year.
As surprising as
Manziel's win was last season in ending the stigma surrounding
first-year players, a player from outside the sport's power structure
winning would be even more stunning.
Can voters get around the
missed games if Miller gets the Buckeyes into the BCS title
game?
The preseason favorite fell out of the picture
after he missed two entire games and played in just one series in
another and as we've discussed before, no player in the modern era has
ever won after missing more than one game and that last happened in 1993
with Charlie Ward.
"I know he missed some games.
Seems like six years ago that he hurt his knee," coach Urban Meyer said.
"But I think he's Heisman worthy."
He has been
impressive since returning to the lineup with 2,360 yards of offense and
27 total TDs, including at least 133 yards passing and 153 rushing in
his last three games. A similar performance against No. 10 Michigan
State -- which boasts the nation's top-ranked defense -- in the Big Ten
title game could further his case.
Even if he can't
get enough support to win, Miller's candidacy gaining traction again
could have a major impact on this race. Both he and Lynch are in the
Midwest Region and they could finish 1-2, which would subsequently take
away votes from Winston, McCarron, etc.
With 2,100-plus rushing
yards, history, in one form, is on Williams'
side.
He's ninth on the single-season list (2,102)
with a bowl game to play, but he's sixth among BCS-conference players,
and four of those ahead of him -- Barry Sanders (2,628), Marcus Allen
(2,342), Mike Rozier (2,148) and Ricky Williams (2,124) -- all won
Heismans in those seasons. If he hits his average of 175.2 yards per in
the Eagles' bowl game, Williams could wind up fourth
all-time.
But history is also playing against
Williams in other ways.
That 2,000-yard mark isn't
what it once was, with the last four players to reach the milestone
missing the ceremony. The closest anyone has come since Ricky Williams'
victory in 1998 was Larry Johnson, who was
third.
Then there are Boston College's five losses,
which would be the most of any winner since 1956, when Paul Hornung won
despite Notre Dame's 2-8 record. You have to go back to 1969 in
Oklahoma's Steve Owens, whose team had a 6-4 mark, to find the last
recipient who had less wins than Boston College's
seven.
At the very least, Williams should to very
well in the North East region, where he could finish behind Winston, who
those voters get to see in ACC play.
Second in the nation to
Williams in yards per game (156.0) and fifth in rushing yards (1,716)
despite sitting out the first game of the season, Carey has run for at
least 100 yards in an FBS-best 15 consecutive
games.
While Washington's Bishop Sankey leads the
Pac-12 with 1,775 yards, it was Carey who was the conference's Offensive
Player of the Year. With Oregon's Marcus Mariota stumbling, he has
emerged as the West's best chance
Had he not been
suspended against Northern Illinois we may be talking about two
2,000-yard rushers. But he's 386 yards behind Williams and has just
seven less carries than Williams does.
That's the rub
against him (along with, like Williams, Carey plays for a team with
five losses). While Carey could finish in the top two or three out West,
expecting more may be too much.
