It’s only appropriate that many fantasy titles will be decided on Monday night when the Saints and Falcons face off in New Orleans. This season has been defined by aerial acrobatics, long touchdowns and exceptional quarterback play. Matt Ryan and Drew Brees will undoubtedly treat NFL fans and fantasy owners to another high-scoring affair and pinball-like totals.
That game serves as the dessert to this holiday weekend, the bulk of which will be played on Saturday. There are a host of intriguing matchups on the docket for fantasy purposes, and much of the actual NFL playoff picture will be decided.
Rex Grossman, Kyle Orton and Tim Tebow will be responsible for many fantasy titles this weekend. I can’t punctuate this 2011 fantasy season with a better single statement.
In this edition of “Lineup Calls,” I’m delving into the receiving end of the connection. Which receivers will out-pace the defense? Which will get jammed?
Let’s break down Week 16.
Exclude: Calvin Johnson, Roddy White, Wes Welker, A.J. Green, Vincent Jackson, Steve Smith, Brandon Marshall, Jordy Nelson, Mike Wallace, Larry Fitzgerald, Marques Colston, Dez Bryant, Miles Austin, Laurent Robinson – all still WR2 options despite NYJ matchup
Week 16 WR Heroes
Julio Jones at NO: Owners still remember the near-miss in the waning seconds of the Week 13 contest in Houston, but Jones has certainly delivered big-time production in the past two weeks (eight receptions for 189 yards with three touchdowns). I slotted Jones as my No. 12 wide receiver for this Monday’s championship week finale against the Saints in what should be a high-scoring affair.
This guy (do the vocal inflection, if you must) can flat-out fly and get behind cornerbacks downfield. The Saints have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season, and Matt Ryan will effort to keep pace with Drew Brees.
* Owners doing a quick recap of the game logs need to remember that Jones left the Week 10 matchup against the Saints early because of a hamstring injury.
Dwayne Bowe vs. OAK: Bowe’s fantasy season has been a disappointment, to be sure, but I’m calling on Bowe and the original “Neckbeard” to rain down gifts in fantasyland during championship weekend. Bowe hasn’t scored since Week 5 against the Colts. The drought ends against the Oakland secondary (Bowe caught six passes for 76 yards in the first meeting).
The Raiders have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to wide receivers (168.9 yards and 1.3 touchdowns per game).
Demaryius Thomas at BUF: I’m not going to go into the whole “it’s unconventional” chatter. It doesn’t matter. Thomas has been a star in the box score for three consecutive weeks while supplanting Eric Decker as Tim Tebow’s top option. During this period, Thomas has amassed 15 receptions for 338 yards with three touchdowns.
I’ve banged the drum for a “Titles for Tebow” campaign in fantasyland this week, and I believe that Thomas will play a huge role against the Buffalo secondary. The Bills rank in the middle of the pack against opposing receivers at 147.5 yards and one touchdown allowed per game.
Santana Moss vs. MIN: Moss didn’t pile up receptions and yardage last week against the Giants, as expected, but he did find the end zone for the second straight week. He’s caught 14 passes for 192 yards since returning to action following a four-week absence.
I’m on board the “Sexy Rexy” bandwagon for this Week 16 matchup against the Vikings. Minnesota continues to play opposing runners well, but the secondary has been depleted because of injuries and off-field issues. The Vikings have surrendered the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers (174 receiving yards and 1.4 receiving touchdowns per game).
Antonio Brown vs. STL: How do I sell you on Brown this week? Well, he’s caught four or more passes in seven of his past eight games and has produced at least 59 receiving yards in each game. The Rams, despite their lofty ranking, can be exploited downfield.
It’s easy to point to the Rams’ pathetic showing against opposing running backs this season. What about the Pittsburgh running attack through 14 games says they’ll be able to replicate that success? I do believe that you’ll see a steady dose of Mendenhall and Isaac Redman. However, this Pittsburgh offense has been built on the abilities of the speed receivers downfield. They shall not be deterred, even if Ben Roethlisberger sits.
Nate Washington vs. JAC: In last week’s “Lineup Calls,” I wondered aloud whether we’d get to see the Locker-Washington connection again. It took an in-game substitution to get the rookie on the field, but he delivered again. Washington caught 13 passes in his past two games for 192 yards and rates a strong play this week against the sinking Jacksonville defense.
Washington caught six passes for 67 yards in the first meeting.
Santonio Holmes vs. NYG: Holmes has hardly been dominant of late, producing fewer than 60 receiving yards in five straight games (seven of the past eight). However, he’s found the end zone in four consecutive games and seven times in his past 10 outings.
This game might be one of the hardest to read on the Week 16 board, but there’s no denying the opportunity afforded to Mark Sanchez. The Giants have allowed the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers. As such, Holmes is on the board as an upper-WR2.
Plaxico Burress is looking for multiple touchdown grabs against his former team. I shan’t put the expectations that high, but he’s a sneaky “Ninja” option and solid WR3 plug-in play.
Jabar Gaffney vs. MIN: Gaffney has thrust onto the scene as a go-to receiver for Rex Grossman down the stretch. He’s caught six passes in back-to-back games for a total of 177 yards with one touchdown. In fact, Gaffney has caught three or more passes in eight of his past nine games (he was shut out in Week 13 by the Jets).
Put him on the board for a big day against the beleaguered Minnesota secondary. As mentioned above, the Redskins have yielded the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers.
Week 16 WR Flop Alerts
Hakeem Nicks at NYJ: Count me among those fantasy owners still wondering what that Week 15 matchup against the Redskins would have looked like had Nicks corralled the deep pass from Manning (a sure 60-yard touchdown) in the first quarter. Alas, we cannot go back in time, and this week’s matchup doesn’t offer much relief.
The Jets have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers (120 receiving yards and 0.64 receiving touchdowns per game). I don’t discount Eli Manning altogether, but this is a difficult spot between two teams vying for playoff berths.
Percy Harvin at WAS: Harvin’s recent run of brilliance ended with a resounding thud in Week 15 against the Saints. He managed just three receptions for eight yards. Harvin’s big-play ability puts him on the board as a low-end WR2 this week, but he’s obviously a difficult play against the strong Washington pass defense. The Redskins have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season.
Stevie Johnson vs. DEN: The Broncos have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season, so there will be opportunities downfield. Johnson draws man-coverage from Champ Bailey, so the individual matchup leaves me cautious.
Despite the Bills’ precipitous drop-off in production down the stretch, Johnson has remained a solid contributor to fantasy lineups. He’s finished four straight games with at least 82 receiving yards or a touchdown.
Brandon Lloyd at PIT: Lloyd has been the unfortunate victim of two bad offenses this season. He’s been limited to a single 100-yard game and four 80-yard efforts this year while compiling 61 receptions for 837 yards. I have him slated as a low-end WR3 against the Pittsburgh pass defense that has surrendered the second-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers.
Torrey Smith vs. CLE: Smith started the week as a “Ninja” option against the second Cleveland cornerback. Alas, news of Anquan Boldin’s knee surgery pushes Smith into the No. 1 slot and a workload against Joe Haden. The Browns have allowed the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season (118.9 receiving yards and 0.5 receiving touchdowns per game). Smith ranks as a WR3 play this week.
I expect the Ravens to pound the ball on the ground and for Joe Flacco to work the ball to Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta. I’m not anticipating much success on the edges.
Week 16 WR Ninja Alerts
Malcom Floyd at DET: Take a run to the waiver wire. In many leagues, Floyd’s four weeks of inactivity from Weeks 9 through 12 made him a waiver wire casualty. Despite two strong fantasy outings in the past three weeks (11 receptions for 233 yards with two touchdowns during this period), he just might be there. Floyd pops onto the radar as a high-end WR3 option this week in a potential shootout against the Lions.
The Lions have surrendered the 12th-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season (180 receiving yards and essentially one touchdown per game). This is one of the most intriguing matchups of this championship weekend.
Nate Burleson vs. SD: Burleson has been a steady contributor for fantasy owners down the stretch. Since the Lions’ Week 9 Bye, Burleson has averaged 5.8 receptions and 5.8 receptions and 64 receiving yards per game with two touchdowns.
The Chargers have allowed the 12th-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers, but I expect to see things open up with Matthew Stafford under center.
Kevin Walter at IND: Walter is hardly an overwhelming choice, but Andre Johnson sidelined again, the veteran receiver steps into the top spot (alongside the two tight ends and Arian Foster, anyway) against the Colts. Indianapolis has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Walter is a high-risk gamble in a strong matchup for desperate owners.
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