Fantasy football owners know the power of the waiver wire when seeking to replace an injured running back. Players frequently emerge from the pack to lead their squads to glory (Arian Foster owners are nodding in approval).
In fantasy baseball, we see players emerge from platoon situations or the minor leagues to produce numbers. We witness breakout seasons from everywhere on the diamond. None keep us tuned in on a daily basis like the ever-rotating closer position. Few bullpens complete a season without drama or the incumbent appearing on the virtual “hot seat.”
Big-dollar contracts may preclude some of the following relief pitcher “flop” candidates from losing their jobs outright. That doesn’t mean that they can’t submarine your championship dreams.
Let’s get started in Chicago with a pitcher who comes to camp with a new contract.
Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs
Marmol currently resides in the No. 2 slot in my early rankings. No, I’m not merely celebrating his $20 million deal. Marmol has the “stuff” to give fantasy owners superior four-category production.
Marmol assumed the closer role at the end of the 2009 season and performed well in September. He then exploded in 2010 and positively dominated. Marmol pitched to a fantastic 2.55 ERA while striking out 16.0 batters per nine innings and converted 38-of-43 save opportunities. Despite pitching at Wrigley Field, the overpowering righty allowed one home run in 77 2/3 innings pitched.
So, where’s the rub? Marmol walks batters at an astronomical rate. In 2010, Marmol walked six batters per nine innings (his career averaged is 5.9 per nine IP). His strikeout rate was always impressive, but it leapt to a new level last season. Marmol’s game is predicated on missing bats (he allowed 4.6 hits per nine IP in 2010). A regression in his strikeout rate or an increase in his hit rate could be disastrous.
Jonathan Papelbon, Boston
Papelbon matched his 2009 strikeout rate last season. That’s about the end of the positivity. His hit rate rose from 7.2 to 7.7 strikeouts per nine innings pitched. Papelbon walked 3.8 batters per nine innings, surrendered seven home runs and blew eight of his 45 save opportunities. All of those components contributed to his career-low 3.90 ERA and bloated (relatively speaking) 1.26 WHIP.
I’m not projecting an all-out implosion from Papelbon in 2011, but there are a few things to consider. Papelbon is in the final year of his contract and there are two capable arms ready to step into the role. Daniel Bard and former White Sox closer Bobby Jenks are waiting in the wings for an opportunity.
There’s nothing in the numbers to fear when it comes to Bailey. He’s a two-time All-Star and former Rookie of the Year Award winner. In two major league seasons, Bailey owns a mind-blowing 1.70 ERA with an accompanying 0.91 WHIP. He’s converted 51-of-58 save opportunities while striking out four batters per walk issued.
While we celebrate Bailey’s on-field dominance, his past health issues leave us concerned. Bailey had Tommy John surgery during his college tenure and underwent surgery to remove debris in his elbow last season. Any time that the name “Dr. James Andrews” appears in a player’s history, the hair stands up on the back of your neck. If healthy, Bailey’s a beast. Owners just need to be ready to call in a reserve (former Colorado and Los Angeles Angels closer Brian Fuentes) should Bailey’s elbow set him back.
Jose Valverde, Detroit
Valverde performed well in his introduction to Detroit. He converted 26-of-29 save opportunities, his fourth straight season with at least 25 saves, while generating a 3.00 ERA with one strikeout per inning pitched. Valverde allowed only 5.9 hits per nine innings pitched, a rate that helped to offset his frightening run of 4.6 walks per nine innings pitched.
Valverde’s control is the component that leaves me nervous. The top of the rotation is strong, and the lineup was bolstered by the addition of Victor Martinez (the Miguel Cabrera situation needs to be watched). If he struggles early, will Jim Leyland turn to the rejuvenated Joel Zumaya?
Joe Nathan, Minnesota
Nathan is working back from Tommy John surgery and has reportedly felt strong following two bullpen sessions this spring. He qualifies as one of the biggest “high-risk, high-reward” options on the board as he rounds back into shape.
Nathan had established himself as one of the most reliable closing options in the game in the half-dozen seasons prior to last year’s injury. He’d saved at least 36 games in six consecutive seasons with a composite sub-2.00 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP.
As such, there’s great enthusiasm and hope that Nathan can return to form. It’s just a question of whether that occurs in 2011. Former Pittsburgh and Washington closer Matt Capps is in the mix to hold down the role until Nathan is completely ready. Early reports are encouraging, but beware the setback.
Joel Hanrahan, Pittsburgh
Hanrahan posted an absurd strikeout rate in 2010, setting batters down at a clip of 12.9 per nine innings pitched. He appeared in 72 games and saved six games in 10 opportunities to earn the first crack at the closer role for 2011.
Hanrahan truly had only three bad outings in 2010. In those three games, he allowed 12 earned runs in 3 1/3 innings pitched. Hanrahan pitched to a dominant 2.17 ERA in his other 69 appearances. The only knock on his game was his walk rate (3.4 per nine innings pitched).
I’m still watching bullpen mate Evan Meek. He possesses strong strikeout punch, but also exhibits the same wildness as Hanrahan (31 walks in 80 innings pitched). Opponents have produced a composite .198 batting average against Meek in three years. He has closer “stuff” and needs to be on your radar. If Hanrahan struggles, the heir apparent is in place.
Frank Francisco, Toronto
Francisco performed well in the 2009 season for the Rangers. He converted 25-of-29 save opportunities while striking out 10.4 batters per nine innings. Francisco demonstrated big-time strikeout punch in 2010 while operating in middle relief ahead of Neftali Feliz. He posted a slightly better ERA than his 2009 output (3.76) while his WHIP rose from 1.11 to 1.27.
There are a few issues on the board for Francisco this spring. He’s experiencing soreness in his pitching arm as camp gets underway and has competition for the role in former closers Jon Rauch and Octavio Dotel. The potential is there for an implosion in the AL East, and that soreness leaves me concerned.
Ryan Franklin, St. Louis
Franklin doesn’t possess the classic “closer” make-up in terms of power pitching. He’s struck out only 6.1 batters per nine innings in two years as the St. Louis closer. Franklin certainly improved his walk rate from his 2009 total, but he surrendered five more home runs to boost his ERA by 1.5 runs.
I remain concerned about Franklin’s low-strikeout rate. Pitching to contact as he does creates significant risk and may open the door for Jason Motte. He improved markedly in 2010 and struck out three batters per walk issued.
Leo Nunez, Florida
Nunez converted 30-of-38 save opportunities in his second year as the closer for the Marlins. He improved his walk rate and surrendered eight fewer home runs. Nunez could go one of two ways this spring.
The biggest knock is that Nunez allows nearly one hit per inning and tends to keep the ball up. There are reports that he’s worked on a sinker all off-season. If that’s the case, then perhaps he can get the ball down in the zone and induce more groundballs. That’ll be the key to holding his ERA and WHIP numbers down. If not, Clay Hensley has the goods to step in and handle the job.
Brandon Lyon, Houston
Lyon remains an injury risk and always appears on the precipice of losing his job when installed as the closer. He saved 20-of-22 opportunities with a strong 3.12 ERA last year, nearly one full run better than his career mark.
Lyon struck out just 6.23 batters per nine innings last season. He walked 3.6 batters per nine innings. The potential for disaster is always there, and owners must draft accordingly.
Fernando Rodney, Los Angeles Angels
Rodney’s ability to hold down the closer role for the Angels was already in question given his weak strikeout-to-walk ratio (53-to-35). He saved 14 games last season for the Angels with seven blown opportunities and 21 holds.
Rodney’s career WHIP says it all (1.44). He’s struck out nearly one batter per inning during his career, but issues too many free passes. Mike Scoiscia has already talked of using other players in the closer spot. There are ample arms from which to choose.
Kevin Gregg, Baltimore
Gregg has saved 23 or more games in four consecutive seasons. He strikes out nearly one batter per inning, but leaves fans with their hearts in their throats because of a frighteningly high-walk rate (4.6 per nine IP in 2010).
Gregg owns sizable career ERA (4.03) and WHIP (1.33) totals, so you’re into him only for saves and strikeouts. If he struggles, don’t be surprised to see Buck Schowalter pull the trigger and insert Koji Uehara into the closer role.
