Let’s swing for the fences and get started in Texas with last year’s AL MVP.
Josh Hamilton, Texas
I recently wrote about my quasi-buyer’s remorse after selecting Alex Rodriguez at the back-end of the first round in an experts draft. I quickly followed up that selection by choosing Josh Hamilton in the second round. Hamilton was admitted to the hospital shortly thereafter.
Therein lays the potential disaster when considering Hamilton in the late first or second round of drafts this spring. He’s played in 133 games or fewer in three of the past four seasons. Yes, Hamilton positively decimates opposing pitching when healthy. The reigning American League MVP batted .359 with 32 home runs, 40 doubles and 100 RBI.
Put frankly, Hamilton is a monster at the plate when healthy, and sits in the heart of a dominant lineup. I decided that his expected production over 125-135 games warranted a second-round selection. You’ll have to assess your level of risk aversion.
Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado
Gonzalez whetted the appetites of fantasy owners with a fantastic 89-game introduction to Colorado in 2009. He then amassed one of the finest fantasy seasons in recent memories. He crushed 34 home runs with 34 doubles and drove in 117 runs. Gonzalez also boosted his batting average while continuing to stay active on the basepaths (had 26 successes in 34 attempts). I have him ranked at the top of the outfield board, so I’m certainly not anticipating a catastrophic dropoff. However, I’m not anticipating a repeat of his ridiculous .435 BABIP, and his strikeout rate is moderately troubling (had 135 strikeouts against 40 walks).
Grady Sizemore, Cleveland
Sizemore appeared in only 33 games in 2010 before undergoing microfracture surgery. He’s reportedly progressing well and may be available to the Indians early in April. That’s music to the ears of fantasy owners who counted on Sizemore as a five-category hero from 2005-09 (he played in 106 games that season). Sizemore is currently being drafted as a late OF2 or early OF3 with hopes that he can reclaim his past dominance.
His selection is obviously a high-risk, high-reward proposition. If you return Sizemore at 80 percent of his previous production, then owners will be ecstatic. I suspect that the power numbers may return early, but I’m reticent to believe that he’ll be as active on the basepaths.
Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston
As with Sizemore, Ellsbury returns to the field with a huge question mark hanging over his production. He was limited to 18 games because of a recurring rib injury in 2010 and returns to help set the table for a rebuilt Boston lineup. Ellsbury batted .291 while averaging 60.5 stolen bases in the 2008 and 2009 seasons.
Will he necessarily run as frequently ahead of Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez? Is the injury something that could crop up again? I don’t doubt that Ellsbury can put together another .285-.295 season. It’s more a question about overpaying for a single category and admiring the logo on his ball cap.
Vernon Wells, Los Angeles Angels
Wells is an intriguing player to watch following his arrival to Anaheim. While he has not been the perennial powerhouse that everyone envisioned years ago, Wells still averaged 88.8 RBI in nine full seasons in Toronto and hit 20 or more home runs seven times (31 last year).
I drafted him as a low-end OF2 while he was a member of the Blue Jays. My enthusiasm has waned somewhat following his arrival to Anaheim. The ballpark isn’t as friendly, and the Anaheim lineup isn’t scaring anyone (Kendry Morales continues to have tightness in his knee). Wells will put up solid numbers, but ceiling is lower in the AL West.
Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers
Kemp was the subject of a ton of chatter last season because of his relationship with Rihanna and defensive lapses. Fans, radio hosts and columnists forgot to acknowledge that Kemp still hit 28 home runs with 89 RBI and stole 19 bases in 34 attempts. That’s hardly a pathetic showing.
However, there was something in the final stat line that raised an eyebrow or two. Kemp’s strikeout rate soared and his final batting average dropped 48 points in 2010.
I’m among those looking for Kemp to rebound in 2011, and I’m certainly not dismissing his overall production from last season. Believe me. I tried to find the positive points in an otherwise difficult season for the Dodgers. Still, I’m fearful of the free-swinging ways and concentration lapses holding him back.
Jayson Werth, Washington
The $1 million question facing fantasy owners with regard to Werth is an elemental one. How will his productivity be affected by his departure from Philadelphia?
Werth averaged 29 home runs and 83.7 RBI in his final three seasons in Philadelphia while stealing a total of 53 bases. He was brought in along with Adam LaRoche to lend support to centerpiece Ryan Zimmerman. I’m moderately concerned that his statistical ceiling lowered markedly upon completing the move. He’s certainly in a much more difficult ballpark with less protection. I also suspect that Werth runs well upon arriving in Washington. Nelson Cruz, Texas
As with Hamilton, fantasy owners can’t help but get excited about his potential. He’s a five-tool hero in the offing, provided that he can avoid a recurrence of the hamstring injuries that limited him to 108 games in 2010. Cruz hit 22 home runs with 31 doubles, 78 RBI and 17 stolen bases with a .318 batting average.
Aside from his injuries, I’m also moderately concerned about Cruz’s .399 BABIP in 2010. Is it sustainable? Will he continue to run with great frequency?
