We spend a ton of time constructing rankings and making arguments in favor of a player’s ranking and potential contribution to the fantasy realm.
Yes, the negative components are brought out in the analysis and players are ordered appropriately. We still spend much of the time in positivity and the search for the ever-elusive “upside.”
In this series of columns, I’m tossing up stats, analysis and anecdotal evidence to put up virtual caution flags for players on the draft board. Most of the players mentioned herein will appear in the top 10 of their respective positional rankings. I’m not telling you to avoid them altogether. I’m merely suggesting that you temper those lofty expectations.
Jorge Posada, C, New York Yankees
Posada’s move to DH following the arrival of Russell Martin from Los Angeles certainly helps his 2011 prospects. He’s appeared in 120 or fewer games in three consecutive seasons and turns 40 years old in August.
Posada will continue to put solid power numbers (had 22 home runs in 2009 and 18 homers last year) when healthy, but owners will need to be ready with a second option.
Miguel Montero, C, Arizona
Montero underwent surgery to repair the torn meniscus in his right knee and missed significant playing time early last year. He struggled markedly at the plate and registered a dismal .227 batting average in August and September.
There’s definitely potential for a breakthrough season. He’s demonstrated strong gap power (with 46 extra-base hits in 2009) and hits in a fantastic park. However, the rise in his strikeout rate leaves me concerned. Part of it can be attributed to his knee injury, but he became a more free-swinging batter.
Ryan Howard, 1B, Philadelphia
I know. You’re staring at this name and scratching your head. The purpose of this piece is to look between the lines to find possible issues with top-tier performers.
With Howard, I’m concerned about a couple of things. First, his slugging percentage dipped substantially last season, as he battled through an ankle injury. He missed 19 games, and hit 14 fewer doubles and 14 fewer home runs. Second, the lineup is replete with players coming of injuries and statistical downturns. Third, Jayson Werth is no longer there to add protection.
I’m not predicting that the sky will fall. I’m merely suggesting that drafting Howard with hopes of a 45-home run, 140-RBI season might be overreaching.
Paul Konerko, 1B, Chicago White Sox
Konerko hit 39 home runs with 111 RBI and an uncharacteristic .312 batting average (had one other season better than .283 since 2002) for the White Sox in 2010. He’d hit 22 and 28 home runs with a composite .260 batting average (.280 lifetime) in the prior two years.
Obviously, he’s not falling into oblivion in U.S. Cellular Field with Adam Dunn onboard. Konerko has been a steady power producer for years. I’m just not buying in for a repeat of his contract year heroics. Pay for 25-28 home runs.
Rickie Weeks, 2B, Milwaukee
Weeks gave us the season we’d been anxiously awaiting in 2010. He batted .269 with 29 home runs and 83 RBI while appearing in more than 129 games for the first time.
As excited as I am to see the follow-up campaign and his play after signing a huge contract, I’m reticent to go all-in. Weeks ranks as a top-five second baseman based on his four-tool potential (the batting average isn’t there), but the extensive injury history is concerning. Weeks has appeared in 118 games or fewer in four of his six major league seasons. All the pieces are there for Weeks to post another monster season. I’m merely cautioning owners to look beyond his 2010 heroics.
Brian Roberts, 2B, Baltimore
I love what the Orioles did this off-season to bolster the lineup. I’m excited to see this team compete (from the batter’s box, at least) this season. Roberts’ back gives me pause.
He appeared in 59 games last season and posted a .278 batting average (he’s a lifetime .283 batter) with 12 stolen bases. The Orioles did not rush him back into the lineup and let things fall into place. Roberts is reportedly ready for 2011, and his activity on the basepaths in 2010 was encouraging. Still, back injuries always leave me nervous.
Alex Rodriguez, 3B, New York Yankees
I drafted Rodriguez at the backend of the first round in our FOX Sports Fantasy Baseball Magazine draft several weeks ago. Part of me experienced an immediate twinge of buyer’s remorse.
Rodriguez isn’t likely to start motoring around the bases again (he stole only four bases in 2010), so part of what made him an elite player has gone to the wayside. He’s 35 years old and has missed extensive time in three consecutive seasons (87 games total). That’s the giant red flag hanging over Rodriguez as we come into the season.
I tried to get a word with him during the Super Bowl festivities in Dallas to talk about his health, the retirement of Andy Pettitte and the 2011 Yankees. Alas, my effort to speak with him was blown up by a previous interviewer who asked about Valentine’s Day.
Jose Bautista, 3B, Toronto
I send a hearty congratulations to Bautista on his five-year, $65-million contract with the Blue Jays. I can’t say that I necessarily understand it, but I applaud him for it.
He mashed like a man possessed in 2010, and led the major leagues with 54 home runs while driving in 124 runs. Bautista had never hit more than 16 home runs nor driven in more than 63 runs in any of his previous six major league seasons. He ripped 36 doubles for the Pirates in 2007, so he had demonstrated strong gap power in the past. We anticipate a translation of those doubles to home runs as a player develops. I just don’t think anyone would have believed him capable of such heroics. Is he a late bloomer?
As such, I’m cautioning against overpaying for Bautista’s services in 2011. I have him ranked 10th among third baseman.
Adrian Beltre, 3B, Texas
Beltre has long been a consistent performer. He’s hit 20 or more home runs in eight of the past 12 seasons and has driven in at least 80 runs in seven campaigns.
Still, I can’t help but serve up the cautionary tale of his contract year outliers. He blew up in 2004 for the Dodgers and positively crushed the ball with the Red Sox last season. As I worked through the positional rankings this winter, I found myself sliding him up the board at third base. The arguments about playing in Arlington and with a loaded lineup were too compelling to look away. Those factors should make things different from when Beltre left Los Angeles for Seattle. I’m just fearful that he becomes “just a guy” again instead of a standout performer.
