Here are five things we've gleaned about the AFC South during the offseason -- a macro look at one of the NFL's most divisive divisions ... although that gap may be closing:
It would be absurd to predict a perfect regular season for Indy, which has claimed three straight AFC titles with Andrew Luck at quarterback (2012-14) -- without eclipsing 11 victories.
However, it's eminently reasonable to proclaim the following: The Colts will be the last NFL team to incur a loss in 2015 ... and could easily carry that pressure-filled distinction into December.
(Indy visits Pittsburgh in Week 13.)
Yes, the Colts have the NFL's second-oldest roster, citing the offseason addition of 30-somethings Frank Gore (nine straight seasons of 1,200-plus total yards) and Andre Johnson (13,597 receiving yards) -- both Hall of Fame considerations down the road.
But that shouldn't be a problem for a team that boasts one top-3 quarterback (the 25-year-old Luck is my 2015 pick for NFL MVP), the league's No. 2 tight end tandem (Coby Fleener/Dwayne Allen), an underrated offensive line (left guard Jack Mewhort was a rookie gem in 2014), a top-10 defense, using some metrics (Indy ranked 9th in sacks last year -- 41) and an explosive corps of wideouts (T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncrief, Andre Johnson, Griff Whalen and rookie Phillip Dorsett).
Speaking of which, given Indy's extensive list of playmakers, it's hard to envision Dorsett (No. 29 overall pick) having a larger role than kick/punt returner and bubble-screen receiver in Year 1.
Dorsett could be a No. 1 or 2 receiving option with a middling offense.
As for the schedule, the Colts (six divisional outings, four games against the AFC East and NFC South) should be prohibitive favorites at least 13 times -- with home meetings against the Patriots (Week 6), Broncos (Week 9) and a road clash with the Steelers being the notable exceptions.
In fact, check out Indy's final seven opponents after the Week 10 bye -- trips to Atlanta, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, Miami and home encounters with Tampa Bay, Houston and Tennessee.
Bottom line: Don't be shocked to see the Colts finish at 14-2, while securing home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, as well.
It's purely speculation at this point, but some reputable Web sites have Toby Gerhart (512 total yards, 2 TDs last year) as the Jaguars' starting tailback heading into training camp.
Here's our counter: Gerhart was not primarily responsible for Jacksonville's respectable average of 102.1 rushing yards per game last season -- ranked 21st overall. To wit, he didn't even collect 60-plus rushing yards in a single outing.
On the flip side, Gerhart's backfield competition has a hodgepodge-like feel -- with rookie T.J. Yeldon (Round 2 pick, 36th overall), Denard Robinson, Bernard Pierce and Storm Johnson rounding out the group.
In short, Johnson had nil impact last year (82 total yards), Pierce has only five touchdowns in three pro campaigns (with Baltimore), Robinson (a converted QB from college) still has much to learn at his new position and Yeldon -- whether fair or not -- must prove that University of Alabama tailbacks can be long-term stars at the next level.
And before you scream "Eddie Lacy" ... he may be the exception to that rule.
Last year, the Jaguars experienced a spectrum of emotions on the ground:
**For their first six games -- all losses -- the Jaguars averaged just 69.5 rushing yards. Ouch.
**Counting the final 10 outings, Jacksonville (3-7 during that stretch) averaged 121.6 rushing yards, a dramatic hike in production.
Of course, that mini-turnaround didn't exactly strike fear into the hearts of opponents, since QB Blake Bortles ended up as the club's second-highest rusher (419 yards).
How's this for a youth movement?
Last season, the Titans became the first NFL team in 35 years to start a rookie left tackle (Taylor Lewan), rookie tailback (Bishop Sankey) and rookie quarterback (Zach Mettenberger) in the same game -- seemingly laying the foundation for an offensive juggernaut down the road.
But Tennessee quickly reversed course on the Mettenberger project, opting for reigning Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota in the April draft (No. 2 overall).
It's rather elementary: Mariota and Mettenberger each have the capacity to be first-rate quarterbacks; but only Mariota has the immediate chops to be a media star on a bad team ... playing in a medium-sized NFL market.
And given his higher draft status, Mariota is a lock, if healthy, to start the Titans' opener (more on that later).
Tennessee's higher Q-rating goes beyond the Mariota acquisition. In previous years, the traditionally conservative Titans might have bypassed receiver Dorial Green-Beckham in Round 2 of a draft -- given his off-field troubles.
But now, they're taking a chance on the unlimited ceiling of Green-Beckham, a transcendent talent in the prospective class of Dez Bryant, Plaxico Burress and Demaryius Thomas.
It's fair to wonder if the Texans regret their choice with the No. 1 overall pick last year, assuming they were torn between Clowney and linebacker Khalil Mack (now with the Raiders).
Clowney, a one-time can't-miss prospect (only 14 months ago), registered just five tackles in four games, before microfracture surgery on his knee curtailed a disastrous rookie campaign.
Moving forward, two major questions follow the South Carolina star, heading into Year 2:
a) Will Clowney recover in time for training camp and a full 16-game slate? Head coach Bill O'Brien simply says Clowney's "on track" in his rehab -- which can mean anything.
b) Assuming full health, will Clowney be supremely motivated to silence the doubters?
Without question, Clowney will be a primary figure during training camp, when HBO's Hard Knocks cameras comes calling.
Of course, that's why we have the engaging documentary series in the first place.
Not to give away trade secrets of the Texans offense. (Does QB Brian Hoyer genuinely worry about this? C'mon!)
And not to portray the Houston coaches/personnel men as dispassionate ogres, when obligated to trim the active roster to 53 players.
Hard Knocks is a legacy thing, something to be enjoyed in the plausible present and for many years after that. It's a shame most NFL franchises cannot see that.
From a TV-partners perspective, 2015 should be a golden year for the NFL, since the NFC East and AFC East clubs (read: big media markets) will collide 16 teams ... and the NFC West and AFC North -- arguably the two toughest divisions in football -- will lock horns all season.
On the flip side, there's a certain morbid fascination with the two South divisions going toe-to-toe, starting with the Mariota vs. Winston matchup of Tennessee @ Tampa Bay in Week 1.
(Potentially, it could be the first time in NFL history the 1-2 quarterbacks of that year's draft start against each other in the season opener.)
Which brings us to this: I will be very disappointed if the NFC South-AFC South battle -- viewed as a whole -- results in an 8-all tie at season's end.
The AFC South was the only division last year to house multiple teams of three or fewer victories (Tennessee and Jacksonville); and the NFC South nearly produced the first 6-victory divison champion in the NFL's modern era.
(Carolina caught fire late and captured the South at a ho-hum 7-8-1.)
It's a classic case of football that's so bad ... it might actually be good.
Jay Clemons, the 2015 national winner for "Sports Blog Of The Year" (Cynopsis Media) and 2008 Fantasy Football Writer of the Year (Fantasy Sports Writers Association), can be reached via Twitter, day or night, at @ATL_JayClemons.
