Five key questions facing Hawks after All-Star break

Five key questions facing Hawks after All-Star break

Published Feb. 17, 2015 12:46 p.m. ET

They took over the All-Star Game, at least for a few minutes.

The Hawks contingent of Al Horford, Kyle Korver, Paul Millsap and Jeff Teague hit the floor together Sunday at Madison Square Garden, putting an exclamation point on a first half of a season in which Atlanta owned the Eastern Conference.

With 43 wins, the Hawks already have five more than they had the entirety of last season, they own a 19-game winning streak and have created a gap of gargantuan proportions in the conference, which is now at 6 1/2 games over the Raptors.

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Basically, everything came up Atlanta. But there are questions to ponder on the road to the playoffs. Herewith, five of the prime storylines for the Hawks as the second half unfolds beginning Friday against the Raptors:

Based on Hollinger's Playoff Odds, Atlanta has a 95.5 percent chance of claiming the No. 1 seed, with the Raptors at 3.7 the only team with greater than 0.6 percent odds.

At 43-11 with 28 games to play and that sizable lead over the Raptors in hand, the Hawks could conceivably play .500 the rest of the way and still win the East by a game if Toronto continued its 67.9 winning percentage (which would be 19-9).

Of course, if the Hawks were to maintain their current rate, they'd finish 65-17, which would mark the first 60-win season in franchise history.

While LeBron James and the Cavaliers, who are currently fifth in the conference and are 8-2 over their last 10, could catch fire and the third-place Bulls are riding an NBA-best four-game streak.

It helps the rest of the contenders' cases that Toronto has 13 of its remaining games vs. teams outside the playoff picture, while the Cavaliers have 12 such games and the Bulls have 11.

But the Hawks, who, like Chicago, have 11 against current non-playoff teams, have a strength of schedule ranked 22nd, which is lowest of any top seed contender. That includes two left vs. the Magic, two against the Kings, along with the Sixers, Lakers and Knicks.

In terms of magic numbers, the Hawks sit at 22 to claim the top seed, with PlayoffStatus.com showing they could conceivably lose the rest of their games and still be No. 1.

The return of Thabo Sefolosha -- whenever that is and which we'll get into in a bit -- should certainly play a factor into how the Hawks approach the Feb. 19 deadline and whom they would go after.

The bigger issue, though, is whether this team even has to make a move.

Ball movement fuels the Hawks, but chemistry is its most crucial ingredient. Would adding another personality to that mix run the risk of upsetting it all?

"Those kinds of conversations are part of the debate and the collaboration," Budenholzer told the 'Atlanta Journal Constitution.' "We are fortunate to have such good chemistry and have such good guys that we are very protective of that and respective of that."

After trading Adrien Payne to the Timberwolves and creating a roster spot, Atlanta does have nearly $5 million in cap space and the option of adding a free agent -- Ray Allen, Jermaine O'Neal, Emeka Okafor or Gary Neal should be bought out by the Timberwolves.

But just because the Hawks have an open spot doesn't mean they have a plan to fill it.

"This deal and this opportunity was done based on its own merits," Budenholzer said of dealing Payne. "There is nothing imminent. There is nothing else that you should be expecting or waiting on."

The numbers bear witness that this is the Golden Age of 3-point shooting.

The Rockets are averaging 11.8 made 3s a game, the most in history and seven teams this season -- the Warriors (10.4), Trail Blazers (10.1), Hawks (9.9), Mavericks (9.7), Clippers (9.7) and Suns (9.6) -- are all within the top 17.

While Golden State's Stephen Curry claimed the Three-Point Shootout title during All-Star Weekend, it's Korver that is the current patron saint of shooting, with a year that has him on pace to make history.

The Hawk, who is coming off his first All-Star appearance, is shooting a league-best 52.3 percent from distance, along with 51.2 percent overall from the field and he's a 91.1 on free throws.

While Steve Kerr has been credited with becoming the first 50/50/90 player at 51/51/93, he didn't meet the minimum requirements for field goals or free throw attempts.

That won't be a problem for Korver in averaging 5.8 3-pointers, 8.0 field goals and 1.7 free throws a game, and in the Hawks system, he's going to continue to get quality looks, both on open shots due to that ball movement and on catch-and-shoots on screens.

Korver, who has twice before led the league in 3-point percentage (2009-10 and '13-14) and has a free throw title under his belt from 2006-07, doing the unprecedented may be the surest thing about this Hawks season.

Sefolosha has been out since Jan. 30 with a calf strain that's expected to sideline him for 6-8 weeks and there have been no indications that he'll return sooner than expected.

His absence has meant increased playing time for Kent Bazemore, who has thrived in that role, adding 7.6 points and 4.1 rebounds to his defensive presence. But the depth of this team has been one of its biggest weapons and missing a reserve that has 1.6 defensive win shares and 2.3 win shares overall (the most of any backup) hurts.

However, Sefolosha's recent past makes any push to get him back early seem ill advised.

A year ago with the Thunder he suffered the same injury and was out for 17 games. He wasn't the same player when he returned either, averaging 6.7 points before and 2.3 after and his rebounds dipped from 3.7 pre-injury to 2.8 in his return.

With 69 playoff games under his belt, the Hawks are going to need Sefolosha for his defensive presence more than anything.

Don't be surprised if we don't see the Swedish product again late March or early April.

The Hawks face daunting consecutive games against the Rockets (March 3) and Cavaliers (6th), one of only two instances in the second half in which they play teams with .500 or better records in back-to-backs.

As tough as seeing James Harden and LeBron James and Co. seems, those games are both in Philips Arena. The Hawks have a far bigger challenge on their hands when they hit the road on March 13.

Atlanta opens with a trip to Phoenix, and while that's followed by the Lakers (March 15) and Kings (16th), the Hawks then take on the Warriors on the 18th, then the Thunder on the 20th before a home game against the Spurs on the 22nd.

That run includes three teams currently in playoff position in the West -- the conference-leading Warriors, while the Spurs are seventh, the Suns eighth -- and the Thunder, who are just outside by one game.

Having won 12 of 14 vs. the West, including five of seven on the road, its' a stretch the Hawks can certainly handle, and should be telling period with the playoffs just over a month away from opening.

Follow Cory McCartney on Twitter @coryjmccartney

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